Market evolution: Cotton jackets (CN 620432) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in women's or girls' cotton jackets and blazers (Customs code 620432) over the 2015–2025 period. The product category covers non-knitted, non-crocheted cotton jackets and blazers — excluding wind-jackets and similar lightweight articles — and spans both general-purpose and industrial/occupational subcategories.

Over this decade, the EU cotton jacket market has undergone a quiet but profound transformation. Physical trade volumes — both in tonnes and in number of items — have remained broadly stable, yet trade values have risen sharply, driven almost entirely by surging unit prices, especially on the export side. At the same time, EU domestic production has contracted by more than half, import sourcing has diversified away from China, and the bloc's net import reliance has climbed from under 5% to over 22%. The result is a market that looks superficially stable on the surface but has been fundamentally restructured underneath — in the geography of supply, the value composition of trade, and the EU's productive capacity.

1. Flat volumes, surging prices: a value-driven trade transformation

The most striking feature of EU cotton jacket trade over the past decade is the divergence between flat physical volumes and rapidly escalating monetary values. This section examines that pattern in detail, showing how unit price increases — not volume growth — have powered the rise in export value, while import prices have remained comparatively subdued.

Export values have climbed 74% on almost unchanged tonnage

EU exports of CN 620432 grew from €114 million in 2015 to €198 million in 2025, a gain of 73.6%. Yet the underlying physical volume barely moved: exports fell from 1,256 tonnes to 1,243 tonnes (−1.1%), and the number of items shipped declined from 2.51 million to 2.44 million pieces (−3.0%). The entire lift in export value therefore came from unit prices, which rose from €90,847/t to €159,390/t (+75.4%) in mass terms, and from €45.39 to €81.27 per item (+79.0%) on a per-piece basis.

The trajectory was not linear. The sharpest unit-price acceleration occurred between 2019 and 2023, with the export price per tonne for the main subcategory (62043290) jumping from €97,468/t in 2019 to a peak of €205,141/t in 2023 — more than doubling in four years — before easing back to €160,000/t in 2025.

Import values have been steadier, with modest price inflation

On the import side, the picture is more muted. EU imports edged up from €237 million to €245 million (+3.3%), while tonnage nudged down from 9,789t to 9,664t (−1.3%). Import unit prices rose only marginally: from €24,230/t to €25,329/t (+4.5%), and from €13.03 to €13.56 per item (+4.1%).

Notably, the year 2020 saw a sharp contraction in import value (to €185.7M) — the lowest point in the series — likely linked to COVID-19 retail shutdowns, followed by a strong rebound in 2022 (€271.9M, the series maximum) as pent-up demand and supply-chain restocking coincided.

The export–import price gap has widened dramatically

Perhaps the most revealing metric is the ratio of export to import unit prices. In 2015, EU cotton jacket exports commanded roughly 3.7 times the price per tonne of imports; by 2025, that ratio had risen to approximately 6.3 times. This widening gap strongly suggests that the EU's export profile has shifted upmarket — toward designer pieces, tailored blazers, and premium products — while imports continue to supply the lower-to-mid retail segment.

The trade deficit has narrowed significantly

As a combined result of rising export values and stable imports, the EU's trade deficit in cotton jackets shrank considerably. It went from −€123 million in 2015 to −€47 million in 2025, an improvement of 61.9%. In 2021, the EU even briefly recorded a trade surplus of €74.7 million — the only positive balance in the entire series — driven by the extraordinary spike in export values that year.

2. A reshaped supply map: declining Chinese dominance and emerging sourcing corridors

The second major structural change in the EU cotton jacket market lies in the geographic reorientation of imports. China's once-dominant position has eroded markedly, while suppliers in South Asia and the Mediterranean have gained ground. This diversification has measurably reduced import concentration.

China's share of EU imports has declined by over a quarter in value

China remained the EU's largest single source of cotton jacket imports throughout the period, but its position weakened substantially. Import values from China fell from €97.1 million in 2015 to €70.9 million in 2025 (−27.0%), representing a decline from about 41% to around 29% of total EU imports. The value-based Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports fell from 2,047 to 1,434 (−29.9%) — confirming a substantial shift from a moderately concentrated import structure toward a more diversified one.

Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Türkiye have gained the most

Three suppliers captured much of China's lost share:

Bangladesh's rise is consistent with its broader expansion as a garment exporter to the EU, aided by the Everything But Arms (EBA) preferential trade arrangement. Pakistan also grew rapidly from a low base. Türkiye, benefiting from its Customs Union with the EU and geographic proximity, consolidated its position as a reliable mid-cost supplier.

Vietnam and the UK have seen steep declines

Not all origins grew. Two major declines stand out:

Vietnam's collapse is notable and may relate to shifting sourcing strategies by major retailers or competitive pressures from other Asian producers. The United Kingdom's decline is plausibly linked to post-Brexit trade frictions, which have added customs formalations and costs to what was previously seamless intra-European trade.

The most volatile sourcing relationships carry the most risk

The coefficient of variation in import values reveals that some supplier relationships have been highly unstable. The United Kingdom (CV 0.97) and Vietnam (CV 0.70) top the list, followed by Morocco (0.52) and Cambodia (0.52). By contrast, China (0.20), Bangladesh (0.23), and Moldova (0.24) have offered more predictable sourcing.

Two specific supply shocks deserve mention. A Moroccan price shock in 2023 (abnormality score 72.4, +34% shift) affected imports worth 16.5% of total import value — suggesting a sharp structural change in Morocco's cost base or product mix. A Bangladeshi price shock in 2022 (abnormality 19.3, +19.2% shift) hit 17.1% of import value, likely reflecting global cotton and energy price inflation transmitted through South Asian supply chains.

EU export destinations have also shifted

On the export side, the United States emerged as the dominant growth market, with EU export values surging from €13.0 million to €38.5 million (+195.9%). China also became a major destination — from €4.0 million to €27.2 million (+585.3%) — likely reflecting demand for European-branded premium jackets in the Chinese consumer market. Meanwhile, Russia (−56.6%) and the UK (−9.3%) declined as export markets, the former almost certainly affected by EU sanctions following 2022.

3. Shrinking EU production, deepening import reliance, and a premium export niche

The third structural theme is a domestic one: EU production of cotton jackets has contracted sharply, import reliance has deepened, and yet the bloc's exports have moved decisively upmarket. The picture is one of EU manufacturers withdrawing from volume production while retaining — or even strengthening — their presence in high-value niches.

EU domestic production has roughly halved in volume

PRODCOM-based production data show a dramatic contraction. EU output fell from 54.7 million items (€1,315 million) in 2015 to 24.3 million items (€811 million) in 2025 — a decline of 55.5% in volume and 38.3% in value. Production bottomed out at 17.7 million items around 2020 (amid COVID disruptions) before a partial recovery.

The fact that production value fell less steeply than volume (−38% vs. −56%) indicates that EU manufacturers have moved toward higher-value items, even as total output contracted.

Net import reliance has surged past 22%

Mirroring the production decline, the EU's net import reliance — defined as the share of domestic consumption met by net imports — rose from 4.6% in 2015 to 22.4% in 2025 (+385%). It briefly turned negative (−3.3%) at one point, implying a temporary trade surplus, before climbing to a peak of 29.4% before settling at its current level. Trade intensity and export propensity rose in tandem, reflecting a market that is far more globally integrated — and more dependent on offshore supply — than it was a decade ago.

Italy and France anchor the EU's premium export profile

EU-level specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that only a handful of Member States retain a meaningful comparative advantage in cotton jackets:

Italy and France dominate: together they account for over 37% of EU production value and have both massively expanded their exports. Italy's export value rose from €36 million to €58 million (+63.4%), while France's soared from €15 million to €80 million (+425.9%). France's explosive growth almost certainly reflects the international expansion of French luxury and premium fashion houses sourcing bespoke blazers and jackets domestically.

By contrast, traditional volume producers like Spain saw exports collapse from €20 million to €8.7 million (−57.2%), consistent with a broader shift from mass-market to higher-value production across southern Europe.

Germany's market role has shifted toward imports

Germany — the EU's largest economy — remained the single biggest importer of cotton jackets throughout the period, though its share declined from €75 million to €57 million (−24.3%). Meanwhile, Italy's imports more than doubled (from €15M to €30M, +106.5%), and France's rose by 29% to €54M — suggesting that even countries with strong domestic production have become more reliant on external supply for their domestic retail markets.

Conclusion

The EU cotton jacket market between 2015 and 2025 presents a story of quiet but far-reaching transformation. Physical trade volumes — on both the import and export sides — have barely changed, yet the market has been reshaped along three axes:

1. Price and value composition — Unit prices for EU exports have roughly doubled (in mass terms), lifting export values by 74% on flat tonnage, while import prices have moved only modestly. The widening export–import price gap signals a decisive shift toward premium products in the EU's export basket.

2. Geographic sourcing — China's share of EU imports has eroded, while Bangladesh, Türkiye, and Pakistan have gained ground. Import concentration has fallen by nearly 30% (HHI). Key supply shocks in Morocco and Bangladesh in 2022–2023 have periodically disrupted this new equilibrium.

3. Domestic production and reliance — EU output of cotton jackets has halved in volume terms. Net import reliance has risen from under 5% to over 22%. Yet Italy and especially France have dramatically expanded premium exports, anchoring the EU's position in the high end of the global market.

Taken together, these trends describe a market where the EU is progressively abandoning volume manufacturing in favour of importing standard garments from lower-cost origins, while channelling its remaining domestic capacity into high-value, branded, and design-intensive products for export. Whether this model proves resilient in the face of rising global competition, trade-policy shifts, and supply-chain disruptions remains an open question — but the direction of travel over the past decade is unmistakable.