Market evolution: Womens ensembles (CN 620429) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in women's or girls' ensembles of textile materials other than wool, fine animal hair, cotton, or synthetic fibres (Combined Nomenclature code 620429) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers three sub-categories: ensembles of artificial fibres (non-industrial), ensembles of other textile materials (excluding wool, cotton, and man-made fibres), and a very small segment of industrial/occupational artificial-fibre ensembles. Throughout the period, the EU remained a dominant net exporter—led overwhelmingly by Italy—but the decade witnessed a notable erosion of the trade surplus as export values contracted and imports surged more than 150%. The following sections dissect the main dynamics behind these trends.

1. An Eroding Trade Surplus: EU Exports Retreat as Imports Accelerate

The overall trade balance narrowed by 16.6% over the decade

Despite maintaining a comfortable surplus throughout, the EU's trade balance in CN 620429 fell from €262.4 million in 2015 to €218.8 million in 2025 (−16.6%). This erosion resulted from a simultaneous decline in exports and a strong rise in imports.

Italy anchors EU exports but its weight is gradually declining

Italy accounted for the overwhelming majority of EU exports throughout the period. Italian export value fell modestly from €243.6 million to €231.8 million (−4.8%), yet Italy still represented over 95% of EU exports in 2025. France, the second-largest exporter at the start of the period with €23.8 million, saw a dramatic decline to just €6.0 million (−74.9%), with most of the drop occurring after 2015. Spain similarly collapsed from €2.9 million to €0.2 million (−92.5%). Conversely, several smaller member states increased their presence: Poland rose from €0.2 million to €0.7 million (+260.5%) and Germany from €0.2 million to €0.7 million (+296.6%), though these remain marginal in absolute terms.

Export unit values shifted, revealing a move towards higher-value pieces

While the export price per tonne decreased slightly from €127,907 to €124,030 (−3.0%), the price per exported item actually rose from €53.2 to €56.9 (+6.9%). This divergence suggests that the average weight per exported garment declined—consistent with a shift toward lighter-weight textile ensembles—while the per-piece value increased, potentially reflecting a move upmarket or the impact of inflation on fashion goods.

2. A Rising Tide of Imports: Asia's Expanding Role and Destabilised Sourcing

China emerged as the dominant import supplier, growing over 430%

The most striking structural change on the import side was the explosive growth of Chinese suppliers. EU imports from China rose from €2.4 million in 2015 to €12.9 million in 2025 (+436.6%), making China by far the largest source of imports by value in 2025.

Several other Asian and North African suppliers also expanded considerably. Bangladesh (+326.6%), Türkiye (+223.4%), and India (+117.2%) all posted strong growth, collectively reshaping the EU's import base. Meanwhile, Tunisia—a traditional nearshore sourcing partner—declined by 21.4%, and the United Kingdom saw its shipments to the EU halve from €1.4 million to €0.6 million (−52.0%), likely reflecting the trade friction introduced by Brexit.

The artificial-fibre sub-category drove the bulk of import growth

A breakdown by sub-category reveals that the surge in imports was led by ensembles of artificial fibres (CN 62042918). This segment's import volume in tonnes grew from 327 t to 1,004 t, and its value from €5.3 million to €13.1 million. The "other textiles" category (CN 62042990) also grew—from 145 t to 311 t in mass and €3.9 million to €10.6 million in value—but its growth rate was less dramatic. Notably, the import price per piece for 62042918 ensembles declined from €6.89 to €6.13, indicating that volume growth was partly price-driven, consistent with increasing penetration by low-cost Asian suppliers.

France became the EU's leading import gateway

Among EU member states, France's imports surged from €1.3 million to €13.7 million (+922.5%), making it the largest importing member by 2025. This likely reflects France's role as a fashion hub where brands source ensembles for both domestic consumption and re-distribution. The Netherlands maintained a steady import presence (~€3.1 million), while Germany doubled its imports to €1.1 million. Romania also saw notable growth (+201.4%), potentially linked to nearshoring and intra-industry trade patterns in the garment sector.

3. Concentration, Specialisation, and Volatility: Structural Fragilities Emerge

Import concentration intensified sharply while export markets diversified slightly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,833 to 3,248 (+77.2%), crossing into what is often considered a "moderately concentrated" market. This reflects the growing dominance of China, which alone accounts for more than half of EU import value by 2025. The HHI for imports by volume followed a similar trajectory (2,736 → 4,761). On the export side, concentration moved in the opposite direction: the export HHI declined from 1,466 to 1,269 (−13.4%), indicating a modest diversification of destination markets—even as Italy's dominance within the EU itself remained near-total.

EU production grew substantially, reinforcing the bloc's export capacity

Available production data show that EU production of CN 620429 items expanded from 2.4 million pieces to 4.3 million pieces (+78.1%) and in value from €28.4 million to €144.2 million (+408.3%). This suggests a significant upgrade in the average value of domestically produced ensembles. The specialisation analysis for 2025 confirms that Romania (RSCA 0.75), France (0.63), and Italy (0.51) hold the strongest comparative advantages in this product within the EU—consistent with their roles as traditional garment-manufacturing centres.

Supply-side volatility and price shocks underscore dependency risks

The volatility analysis reveals that several key import partners exhibit high year-to-year variability. Bangladesh (coefficient of variation 1.24), Türkiye (1.10), and Tunisia (1.01) show the widest swings in export values to the EU, making them less predictable sourcing partners. On the export side, Tunisia (CV 1.81) was the most volatile destination, while Russia (0.33) was the most stable—though geopolitical risks unrelated to trade volatility clearly affect the latter. Notably, detected supply shocks include a significant price anomaly for imports from Türkiye in 2022, with an abnormality score of 6.8 and a +72% price shift, coinciding with broader post-pandemic supply-chain disruptions and inflationary pressures across the textile sector.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for women's textile ensembles (CN 620429) underwent a gradual but meaningful structural shift. While the bloc retained a strong net-exporter position—anchored by Italy's commanding share—the trade surplus narrowed by 16.6% as exports declined in both volume and value. Simultaneously, imports more than doubled, driven overwhelmingly by surging shipments from China, Bangladesh, India, and Türkiye, which collectively displaced traditional nearshore suppliers like Tunisia and post-Brexit UK. This shift has substantially increased import concentration, raising potential supply-chain dependency risks. At the same time, EU production grew impressively in both volume and value, and export destination markets showed some diversification. Looking ahead, the combination of rising Asian import penetration, concentrated sourcing, and moderate supply-side volatility suggests that policymakers and industry stakeholders should monitor this product category for signs of further competitive erosion and consider the strategic implications of deepening reliance on a small number of overseas suppliers.