Market evolution: Women's cotton trousers (CN 62046239) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in women's or girls' cotton trousers and breeches (Combined Nomenclature code 62046239) over the period 2015–2025. This product category covers non-knitted cotton trousers excluding denim, corduroy, industrial clothing, and tracksuit bottoms. It sits within the broader chapter of non-knitted apparel (HS 62) and represents a significant segment of the EU's ready-made clothing market. Over the eleven-year window, the EU trade landscape for this product has undergone a profound transformation: volumes have contracted substantially, domestic production has collapsed, supplier geography has shifted, and the EU's reliance on extra-EU imports has surged. The following sections detail these dynamics and their drivers.
1. A Decade of Contraction: Falling Trade Volumes and the Collapse of EU Production
1.1 Extra-EU imports declined steadily in both value and volume
EU imports of CN 62046239 from non-EU countries fell from €1.73 billion in 2015 to €1.27 billion in 2025, a decline of 26.4%. In volume terms, imports dropped from 91,469 tonnes to 75,657 tonnes (–17.3%). When measured in individual pieces — the supplementary unit — the decline was even steeper, from 246.5 million items to 175.9 million items (–28.6%). This divergence between tonnage and piece counts suggests a shift in the average weight per garment over the period.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (€ bn) | 1.73 | 1.27 | –26.4% |
| Import volume (t) | 91,469 | 75,657 | –17.3% |
| Import items (M p/st) | 246.5 | 175.9 | –28.6% |
| Import unit price (€/t) | 18,937 | 16,840 | –11.1% |
| Import piece price (€/p/st) | 7.03 | 7.24 | +3.1% |
Source: General Overview – Trade
1.2 EU extra-EU exports fell even more sharply in piece counts
EU exports to non-EU countries also contracted, from €443 million to €345 million (–22.1%). In volume, exports dropped from 9,736 tonnes to 7,061 tonnes (–27.5%). The supplementary-unit decline was the most dramatic: from 26.6 million items to 16.3 million (–38.6%). Interestingly, export unit prices per tonne rose by 7.4% (from €45,493 to €48,845), and per-piece prices climbed by 26.8% (from €16.65 to €21.12). This points to the EU shifting its export mix toward higher-value garments — consistent with a move upmarket as lower-value production migrates offshore.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€ M) | 443 | 345 | –22.1% |
| Export volume (t) | 9,736 | 7,061 | –27.5% |
| Export items (M p/st) | 26.6 | 16.3 | –38.6% |
| Export unit price (€/t) | 45,493 | 48,845 | +7.4% |
| Export piece price (€/p/st) | 16.65 | 21.12 | +26.8% |
Source: General Overview – Trade
1.3 EU domestic production experienced a dramatic collapse
Perhaps the most striking structural shift occurred in EU domestic production. Production in items fell from 72.9 million pieces to 23.5 million (–67.8%), while production value declined from €811 million to €405 million (–50.1%). The less-than-proportional value decline relative to volume indicates rising unit values in the surviving production, suggesting that the EU retained higher-end manufacturing while shedding mass-market output. The production collapse is the primary driver behind the EU's sharply rising import dependence, as discussed in Section 3.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production items (M p/st) | 72.9 | 23.5 | –67.8% |
| Production value (€ M) | 811 | 405 | –50.1% |
Source: Production volumes
1.4 The trade deficit narrowed, but only because imports fell faster than production shrank
The EU's trade deficit for this product narrowed from €1.29 billion in 2015 to €929 million in 2025, an improvement of 27.9%. However, this apparent improvement masks a deeper structural vulnerability: the deficit narrowed not because the EU became more competitive, but because the overall market contracted. With domestic production falling by nearly 68% in pieces, the EU became far more reliant on imports to meet remaining demand.
2. Shifting Supplier Geography: Bangladesh Consolidates While Traditional Partners Retreat
2.1 Bangladesh emerged as the dominant import source, overtaking China
Among the top import partners, the most notable shift was Bangladesh's rise to become the EU's single largest supplier. Bangladesh's exports to the EU rose from €384 million in 2015 to €407 million in 2025 (+6.0%) — the only top-seven supplier to register growth over the period. Bangladesh also displayed the lowest volatility among major suppliers, with a coefficient of variation of just 0.11, far below peers. This stability likely reflects deep integration into EU fast-fashion and value-chain sourcing.
2.2 China and Türkiye experienced steep declines
China, the largest supplier in 2015 at €464 million, saw its share collapse to €263 million by 2025 (–43.3%). Türkiye fell from €280 million to €161 million (–42.5%). Both countries' declines reflect well-documented structural trends: rising domestic labour costs in China, the EU's strategic diversification away from Chinese sourcing (accelerated after COVID-19 and geopolitical tensions), and competitive pressures on Türkiye from lower-cost Asian producers.
| Supplier | 2015 (€ M) | 2025 (€ M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh | 384 | 407 | +6.0% |
| China | 464 | 263 | –43.3% |
| Türkiye | 280 | 161 | –42.5% |
| Morocco | 123 | 80 | –34.9% |
| Pakistan | 45 | 71 | +60.4% |
| Cambodia | 74 | 47 | –35.7% |
| Tunisia | 101 | 43 | –57.7% |
Source: Top partners by value
2.3 Pakistan was the fastest-growing supplier; North African and Southeast Asian origins weakened
Pakistan was the only other supplier to record significant growth, rising from €45 million to €71 million (+60.4%). This likely reflects Pakistan's competitive cotton textile base and preferential market access arrangements. By contrast, traditional near-shoring partners Morocco (–34.9%) and Tunisia (–57.7%) lost ground significantly, and Cambodia (–35.7%) also declined. These declines may reflect shifting comparative advantages, rising costs in North Africa, and the broader overcapacity in global garment manufacturing that squeezes mid-tier origins.
2.4 Import concentration increased, signalling reduced supplier diversification
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 1,602 to 1,742 (+8.7%). By volume, the increase was steeper still: from 1,990 to 2,576 (+29.4%). These figures indicate a moderate level of concentration that is trending upward. As China, Türkiye, and North African origins recede, the import base is narrowing around fewer dominant suppliers — principally Bangladesh — which raises supply-chain risk.
2.5 EU export markets also shifted: the UK declined while Ukraine surged
On the export side, the United Kingdom — the EU's largest non-EU export destination in 2015 at €82 million — fell to €46 million (–43.5%), likely influenced by post-Brexit trade frictions. Russia dropped from €47 million to €19 million (–60.3%), reflecting sanctions and geopolitical disruption. Switzerland remained a stable, high-value destination, declining modestly from €90 million to €70 million (–22.1%). The most dramatic growth was recorded by Ukraine (+369.5%, from €5 million to €23 million), likely reflecting EU support programmes and trade facilitation measures following Russia's invasion.
3. Rising Import Dependence and Structural Vulnerability
3.1 The EU's net import reliance surged from 24% to 71%
The net import reliance ratio — imports as a share of apparent consumption (production + imports – exports) — increased from 24.2% in 2015 to 70.5% in 2025, a rise of 191.6%. This near-tripling reflects the combined effect of collapsing domestic production and the EU market's continued dependence on imported goods to meet consumer demand. By 2025, roughly seven out of every ten units consumed in the EU were sourced from outside the bloc.
3.2 Trade intensity and export propensity reached extreme levels
Two complementary indicators reinforce this picture of deepening external dependence:
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net import reliance (%) | 24.2 | 70.5 | +191.6% |
| Trade intensity (%) | 29.9 | 97.8 | +226.7% |
| Export propensity (%) | 4.5 | 90.5 | +1928.7% |
Source: Autonomy & Vulnerability
Trade intensity (the sum of imports and exports as a share of production) nearly reached 100%, meaning the EU's trade flows in this product are now almost entirely decoupled from domestic production. Export propensity rose to 90.5%, indicating that a very large share of whatever the EU does produce is destined for export — likely premium or niche garments — rather than serving the domestic market. These figures together paint a picture of a product category where the EU has largely ceased to be a volume producer and has become primarily a trading and consumption hub.
3.3 Supply-chain price shocks underline the vulnerability
The volatility analysis reveals that price shocks have been concentrated in recent years. The most significant was a 20.1% abnormal price shift for Bangladeshi imports in 2022 (abnormality score 4.8), followed by an 18.5% price shock from Pakistan the same year (abnormality score 4.1). On the export side, a 27.8% price spike for Swiss-bound exports was detected in 2023 (abnormality score 6.4). These shocks coincided with post-COVID supply-chain disruptions, global cotton price inflation, and energy cost surges in 2022, followed by European logistics and cost pressures in 2023. Given Bangladesh's dominant and growing share of EU imports (accounting for 37.2% of import value by 2025), price instability in that corridor has outsized effects on the EU market.
3.4 EU member states show divergent trajectories
The import landscape within the EU is increasingly unequal. Spain and Germany, the two largest importers in 2015, both saw their intake nearly halve (–45.6% and –45.1% respectively). Belgium's imports collapsed by 81.1%. Meanwhile, Poland emerged as a major importer, growing from €50 million to €175 million (+246.4%), and simultaneously became the EU's fastest-growing exporter of this product (from €5 million to €44 million, +744.7%). Poland's rising specialisation (RCA of 2.21, the highest in the EU) reflects its growing role as a garment logistics, finishing, and re-export hub within Central Europe, leveraging cost advantages and EU single-market membership. France showed the most resilience among traditional importers, declining only 8.1%.
3.5 Export specialisation concentrates in Southern and Central Europe
In 2025, the most specialised EU exporters of CN 62046239 were Poland (RSCA: 0.38), Denmark (0.38), Spain (0.33), Italy (0.25), and Croatia (0.20). Italy and Spain's presence reflects their established fashion-manufacturing base, while Poland's and Denmark's positions suggest niche or logistics-driven specialisation. At the other end, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, and Latvia showed negligible specialisation in this product, consistent with their broader economic profiles.
Conclusion
The EU market for women's cotton trousers (CN 62046239) has undergone a structural transformation over 2015–2025. Domestic production collapsed by nearly 68% in volume, pushing net import reliance from 24% to over 70%. The supplier base has consolidated around Bangladesh — now the dominant origin — while traditional sources in China, Türkiye, and North Africa have receded significantly. This concentration has increased supply-chain vulnerability, as evidenced by price shocks in 2022–2023. Within the EU, production and trade activity have shifted geographically, with Poland emerging as a central hub for both imports and exports, while established markets like Spain, Germany, and Belgium have contracted. The EU has evolved from a region with meaningful domestic production capacity into one overwhelmingly dependent on external supply, with its remaining output increasingly oriented toward premium, export-oriented niches. These trends reflect broader dynamics in global garment manufacturing — cost competition, supply-chain diversification strategies, and the post-COVID recalibration of trade flows — and carry significant implications for EU industrial policy and trade resilience in the apparel sector.