Market evolution: Women's knitted garments (CN 6104) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in women's or girls' knitted or crocheted garments classified under Combined Nomenclature code 6104. The category encompasses a wide range of products — suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, dresses, skirts, trousers, and shorts — made from various fibres including cotton, synthetic, and artificial materials. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for these goods has undergone a pronounced structural transformation: imports have grown far faster than exports in volume terms, the trade deficit has deepened considerably, and the geographic sourcing landscape has shifted decisively toward South and Southeast Asian suppliers. At the same time, EU exports have pivoted toward higher-value destinations, and domestic production has evolved from volume-driven to value-driven output. The sections below examine these dynamics in detail.

Scope & Definitions

I. A Widening Trade Deficit Fuelled by Surging Import Volumes

Import volumes grew much faster than import values, signalling a shift toward lower-unit-cost suppliers

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 6104 products rose from €4.72 billion to €6.67 billion in value (+41.2%), but import volumes in tonnes surged by 55.3%, from 267,288 t to 414,981 t. This divergence indicates that the average unit price of imports actually declined over the period — from €17,673/t to €16,068/t (−9.1%). In other words, the EU is importing significantly more garments by weight, but paying proportionally less per kilogramme. This is consistent with a sourcing shift toward low-cost Asian manufacturers, whose products tend to be lighter (e.g., synthetic-fibre garments) and cheaper per unit.

Trade overview

The trade deficit deepened by over 40%, reaching nearly €4.8 billion

The EU's trade deficit in CN 6104 widened from −€3.44 billion in 2015 to −€4.84 billion in 2025, a deterioration of 40.7%. The deficit peaked at −€5.62 billion in 2022, a year marked by exceptional import surges (likely driven by post-COVID restocking and inflationary price pressures). The subsequent partial correction in 2023–2025 brought some relief, but the structural deficit remains well above its 2015 baseline.

Net import reliance nearly doubled, underscoring the EU's growing dependence on external suppliers

The EU's net import reliance rose from 39.2% in 2015 to 68.6% in 2025 (+74.9%), peaking at 77.8% in 2022. This metric captures the share of apparent domestic consumption that must be satisfied by imports. A near-doubling of this ratio over a decade reflects the combined effect of stagnant domestic production volumes (the number of items produced rose by only 0.1% over the period) and rapidly growing consumer demand met through imports.

Net import reliance

II. A Rapid Geographic Reorientation of Import Sourcing Toward South and Southeast Asia

Bangladesh overtook China as the fastest-growing major import source

The most striking shift in the EU's import sourcing has been the rise of Bangladesh. In 2015, Bangladesh supplied €734 million worth of CN 6104 goods; by 2025, this had surged to €1.42 billion (+93.7%), with a peak of €1.97 billion in 2022. Bangladesh is now the second-largest supplier behind China (€1.86 billion), and the gap has narrowed considerably. Meanwhile, China's share, while still dominant, grew more modestly from €1.51 billion to €1.86 billion (+22.9%).

Top import partners

Pakistan and Myanmar emerged as new major suppliers from very small bases

Beyond Bangladesh and Cambodia, two countries have experienced explosive growth from minimal starting points. Pakistan's exports to the EU grew from €67 million to €256 million (+282.8%), while Myanmar's surged from €14 million to €159 million (+1,003.9%). Myanmar's trajectory is particularly dramatic, though the country's peak of €316 million in 2022 has since receded, possibly reflecting political instability and related trade disruptions. Pakistan's rise, by contrast, has been more consistent, likely driven by its competitive labour costs and growing textile manufacturing capacity.

The 2022 import surge and subsequent correction reflect global supply-chain disruptions

The year 2022 stands out as an anomaly across nearly all major suppliers. Total EU imports peaked at €7.70 billion that year — over €1 billion above the 2025 level. Bangladesh, China, Pakistan, and Myanmar all recorded their maximum import values in 2022. This likely reflects a combination of post-COVID restocking, forward-buying ahead of anticipated supply disruptions, and inflationary price effects. The subsequent decline in 2023–2024 represents a normalisation rather than a structural reversal.

Synthetic-fibre trousers have become the dominant import product category by value

Within the product segment breakdown, the two largest import categories by value in 2025 were:

Synthetic-fibre trousers (610463) have grown particularly fast: their import volume nearly tripled from 53,007 t in 2015 to 130,411 t in 2025, while value more than doubled from €917 million to €2.01 billion. By contrast, artificial-fibre dresses (610444) have seen their import volume decline from 15,654 t to 11,087 t, suggesting a consumer and retailer shift away from this material segment.

III. EU Exports Reoriented Toward Higher-Value Destinations While Domestic Production Shifted to Value Over Volume

EU export values grew in line with imports, but volumes stagnated — revealing a premium positioning

While EU imports grew 55.3% by volume, exports grew only 9.2% (from 28,437 t to 31,052 t). However, export values kept pace with imports (+42.4%), because export unit prices rose sharply from €45,231/t to €58,992/t (+30.4%). This divergence suggests that the EU's competitive advantage in CN 6104 products lies increasingly in higher-value, premium-positioned garments — consistent with the strengths of Italian, French, and German fashion industries.

Trade overview

Brexit and geopolitical sanctions reshaped EU export destinations

The United Kingdom, historically the EU's largest export market for CN 6104 products, saw EU exports decline from €392 million in 2015 to €285 million in 2025 (−27.2%). This decline, concentrated in the post-Brexit period, likely reflects new trade frictions, customs procedures, and possible re-routing of supply chains. Similarly, exports to the Russian Federation fell from €108 million to €61 million (−43.0%), reflecting the impact of EU sanctions following 2022.

Conversely, several other destinations saw strong growth:

Switzerland's remarkable growth may partly reflect re-export dynamics and its role as a logistics hub for the European fashion trade.

Top export partners

EU production volumes were essentially flat, but production values nearly doubled

EU domestic production of CN 6104 items remained virtually unchanged at approximately 101–102 million pieces between 2015 and 2025 (+0.1%). However, the value of that production rose from €1.08 billion to €1.98 billion (+82.6%). This confirms the premiumisation trend: EU manufacturers are producing roughly the same number of garments but at substantially higher average prices, reflecting a focus on quality, design, and brand value rather than volume competition.

Poland and Germany emerged as the leading EU manufacturing hubs, while specialisation concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe

Among EU member states, specialisation in CN 6104 production (measured by Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) is highest in:

Poland's dual role — as both a major producer (14.1% of EU production) and a highly specialised exporter — is reflected in its extraordinary export growth of +561.7% over the period (from €23 million to €154 million). Germany and Italy remain the largest exporters by absolute value (€479 million and €437 million respectively in 2025), but their specialisation indices are lower, reflecting their more diversified manufacturing bases.

Import concentration remains moderate but shifted toward South Asia

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value declined slightly from 1,621 in 2015 to 1,559 in 2025 (−3.9%), indicating a moderate diversification of supply sources. The volume-based HHI, however, rose from 1,719 to 1,819 (+5.8%), suggesting that while import values are spread more evenly, physical volumes are becoming slightly more concentrated — consistent with the growing dominance of Bangladesh and Cambodia as bulk garment suppliers.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in women's knitted garments (CN 6104) has been defined by three overarching trends. First, the market has become dramatically more import-dependent: net import reliance nearly doubled from 39% to 69%, and the trade deficit widened to almost €5 billion. Second, sourcing has shifted decisively toward South and Southeast Asia — Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Myanmar have all seen explosive growth, while China, though still dominant, is losing relative share. This geographic diversification has brought both cost benefits and new volatility risks, as supply from these emerging sources tends to be more variable. Third, the EU has responded not by competing on volume but by moving up the value chain: domestic production volumes are flat, but values have surged, export unit prices have risen 30%, and trade is increasingly oriented toward premium markets like Switzerland and the United States. The 2022 import spike — driven by post-COVID restocking and inflation — served as a stress test for this import-dependent model, and the subsequent correction suggests the system remains sensitive to global supply-chain disruptions. Looking ahead, the key structural question is whether the EU's dual strategy of outsourcing volume production to Asia while retaining high-value manufacturing at home can remain sustainable amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, evolving sustainability regulations, and shifting consumer preferences.