Market evolution: Knit shirts (CN 6105) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in knitted or crocheted men's and boys' shirts (Customs code 6105) over the period 2015–2025. The product category excludes nightshirts, T-shirts, singlets and other vests, and encompasses three subcategories: cotton shirts (610510), man-made fibre shirts (610520), and shirts of other textile materials (610590). The analysis draws on EU-wide trade data with non-EU countries, covering value, volume, pricing, partner concentration, and production trends. Over the decade, the EU market exhibits a structural shift toward higher unit values in exports, a persistent and deepening trade deficit, and significant realignment of both import sources and export destinations — dynamics shaped by cost competition, post-pandemic recovery, and geopolitical realignments.

I. A deepening deficit underpinned by diverging price trajectories

The EU remains a large net importer with a structurally negative trade balance

Throughout the 2015–2025 period, the EU has maintained a substantial trade deficit in knitted shirts. The deficit stood at €882 million in 2015 and remained virtually unchanged at €889 million in 2025 — a nominal change of just −0.7% (General Overview). However, the underlying dynamics are more complex: the deficit widened to a peak of approximately €1,088 million around 2022 before partially retracing. This masks a simultaneous surge in both import and export values, driven by very different mechanisms.

Import values grew modestly while export values surged on the back of rising unit prices

Imports grew by 19.8% in value and 13.5% in volume, reflecting continued expansion of sourcing from low-cost countries. By contrast, EU exports rose by 62.5% in value despite an 11.2% decline in tonnage — a clear signal that the EU is exporting fewer garments at substantially higher prices (General Overview).

The unit-price gap between exports and imports has widened dramatically

EU export unit prices have nearly doubled, rising 82.9% per tonne and 108.5% per piece, while import prices increased only 5.5% per tonne and 12.7% per piece. This divergence reflects the EU's increasing specialisation in premium, higher-value-added knit shirts — likely design-intensive, branded, or produced with advanced materials — while import volumes remain dominated by mass-market, competitively priced garments.

II. Bangladesh consolidates its dominance as import sources shift eastward

Bangladesh is the EU's unrivalled primary supplier, with imports growing by 38%

Bangladesh's share of EU knit-shirt imports has grown substantially, with import value rising from €445 million in 2015 to €616 million in 2025 — a 38.4% increase and representing nearly half of EU import value by 2025 (Top partners by value). Bangladesh's dominance reflects its position as a low-cost manufacturing hub with established garment infrastructure and preferential EU market access (Everything But Arms arrangement).

China's role has declined while South and Southeast Asian suppliers gain ground

Chinese imports fell 7.9% from €216 million to €199 million — a modest decline, but notable given that China was the EU's second-largest supplier throughout. Meanwhile, Viet Nam (+62.2%) and especially Pakistan (+144.6%) posted strong gains, reflecting a broader diversification of EU sourcing away from China toward lower-cost Asian producers. Pakistan's surge from €22 million to €53 million suggests it is rapidly scaling up knitwear capacity for EU markets.

The United Kingdom's post-Brexit collapse reshapes EU-internal and EU-external flows

The UK's contribution to EU knit-shirt imports fell 74.3% from €68 million to just €17 million, reflecting the UK's transition from an intra-EU partner to an external trading partner post-Brexit. This sharp decline likely reflects both new trade frictions (customs procedures, rules of origin) and the UK's own sourcing realignment.

III. The EU export profile shifts toward premium segments and diversified destinations

EU exports are increasingly concentrated in high-value, niche products

The EU's export strategy for knitted shirts has evolved markedly. While export volumes in tonnes declined 11.2% and piece counts fell 22.1%, export values rose 62.5%. This is explained by a dramatic increase in unit prices: the export price per piece rose from €13.46 to €28.06 (+108.5%). The EU is clearly moving upmarket — exporting fewer but more expensive garments, likely reflecting brand value, design quality, and specialisation in technical or premium fabrics (General Overview).

Italy and Germany anchor EU exports, while the US and China emerge as growth markets

Italy has become the EU's largest export market (€231 million, +111%), overtaking the UK, whose exports collapsed by 50.7% post-Brexit. Notably, the United States (+210.4%) and China (+234.2%) have become substantial EU export destinations, consistent with growing global demand for European premium fashion. Switzerland (+165.1%) and Türkiye (+149.9%) also posted striking gains.

Export concentration has fallen sharply, indicating improved market diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration fell from 1,998 to 712 — a 64.3% decline — indicating that EU exports are now spread much more evenly across destination markets than in 2015 (Concentration HHI). This diversification reduces vulnerability to single-market shocks and reflects deliberate market expansion. By contrast, import concentration rose moderately (HHI from 1,771 to 2,053, +15.9%), suggesting a slight narrowing of sourcing partners — driven in part by Bangladesh's growing dominance.

IV. EU domestic production declines in volume but rises in value

Production volumes have halved while output value has increased

EU production of knitted shirts (PRODCOM 14.14.11.00) fell from 74.9 million pieces in 2015 to 37.4 million pieces in 2025 — a decline of 50.1% (Production volumes). Yet production value rose 14.3%, from €434 million to €496 million. This divergence mirrors the export trend: EU manufacturers are producing fewer units at higher average prices, consistent with a shift toward premium products, made-to-order manufacturing, and nearshoring for quality-conscious segments.

Net import reliance has climbed significantly

Net import reliance rose from 40.5% to 62.5%, confirming that the EU's domestic production increasingly cannot meet domestic demand for basic knit shirts (Net import reliance). At the same time, export propensity surged from 41.5% to 126.1% — meaning that EU exports now exceed domestic production value, likely reflecting re-export of imported garments alongside domestically produced premium items.

V. Product sub-segments reveal a structural shift toward man-made fibres and premium niches

Cotton shirts dominate imports but have lost ground to man-made fibre shirts

Cotton knit shirts remain the largest import category by volume (61,087 tonnes), but their growth has been essentially flat (+0.9%). By contrast, man-made fibre imports more than doubled, rising from 7,660 to 16,081 tonnes (+109.9%), reflecting growing consumer demand for performance fabrics, blends, and synthetic materials in men's knitwear (Product segment breakdown).

Non-cotton, non-synthetic exports have exploded in value, signalling niche premiumisation

The "other materials" segment (610590) has seen extraordinary growth: export value surged from €15 million to €82 million (+441.9%), and the per-piece price reached €115.83 — more than four times the cotton shirt export price and six times the man-made fibre price. This tiny volume segment (just 265 tonnes exported in 2025) represents the extreme premium end of the market, likely encompassing luxury knitwear in wool, cashmere, silk, or innovative blends.

VI. Vulnerability and supply-chain risks require attention

Bangladesh's import dominance creates concentration risk

Bangladesh alone accounts for nearly half of EU knit-shirt import value (€616 million of €1,528 million in 2025). The import-side HHI rose 15.9% to 2,053, and Bangladesh's price volatility (coefficient of variation: 0.11) is moderate but not negligible. A detected price shock in 2022 — with a 26.3% price spike and abnormality score of 19.0 — underscores the exposure to supply disruptions in a single source country (Supply shocks). Given Bangladesh's vulnerability to climate events, political instability, and labour-market pressures, this concentration warrants strategic diversification.

EU Member States show divergent specialisation patterns

Among EU members, Portugal (RSCA: 0.67), Denmark (0.43), and Italy (0.27) display strong revealed comparative advantage in knit-shirt exports, while Malta (−0.95), Ireland (−0.90), and Luxembourg (−0.87) show pronounced disadvantage (Specialisation). Italy's export growth (+111% to €231 million) confirms its role as a premium knitwear hub, while the Netherlands' rapidly growing imports (+105.7% to €224 million) suggest its emergence as a key EU distribution and logistics node for garment flows.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU market for knitted men's and boys' shirts has undergone a pronounced structural transformation. The most significant dynamics are: (1) a widening price gap between imports and exports, reflecting the EU's specialisation in high-value, premium products while sourcing basic garments from Asia; (2) the consolidation of Bangladesh as the dominant import supplier, accompanied by a decline in Chinese and UK sourcing; (3) a diversification of EU export destinations, with strong growth in the US, China, and Switzerland alongside a post-Brexit collapse in UK-bound shipments; (4) a halving of domestic production volumes, offset by rising production value; and (5) a rapid expansion of man-made fibre imports and ultra-premium niche exports in non-standard materials. The EU's net import reliance has risen to 62.5%, underscoring the sector's dependence on global supply chains. While the growing export value and diversification are positive signals of competitiveness in premium segments, the heavy concentration of imports from Bangladesh remains a structural vulnerability that merits continued monitoring.