Market evolution: Men's suits and trousers (CN 6103) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the EU's external trade in men's or boys' suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts (Combined Nomenclature code 6103) between 2015 and 2025. The product heading covers a broad range of knitted or crocheted garments — from formal suits and blazers to casual trousers and overalls — and is a significant component of the EU's textile and apparel trade. Over the period under review, the sector has undergone dramatic structural change: EU imports have more than doubled in value and nearly tripled in weight, while domestic production has contracted sharply. The trade deficit has widened considerably, and the geography of supply has shifted away from China towards South and Southeast Asian producers. This report is structured around three main findings that capture these dynamics.

1. A Widening Chasm: The EU's Deepening Import Dependency

Imports surged far more than exports, tripling the trade deficit

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's overall trade in CN 6103 underwent a pronounced asymmetry. Imports grew from €907 million to €1.93 billion (+112.4%), while exports rose from €376 million to €565 million (+50.1%). The resulting trade deficit widened from €531 million in 2015 to €1.36 billion in 2025 — a deterioration of 156.6%. The deficit actually peaked at €1.70 billion in 2022, before moderating somewhat in 2023–2025.

Import volumes nearly tripled while unit prices fell

The growth in import value was driven predominantly by volume rather than price. Import mass quantities rose from 60,588 tonnes in 2015 to 172,171 tonnes in 2025 (+184.2%), while the average import price per tonne actually declined from €14,971 to €11,189 (−25.3%). In per-item terms, the supplementary unit price fell from €5.04 to €4.68 (−7.0%), suggesting that the EU has been sourcing increasingly cheaper garments — or that low-cost categories have grown disproportionately.

Export prices moved in the opposite direction: the per-tonne export price rose from €39,335 to €52,628 (+33.8%), and the per-item export price increased from €15.18 to €19.31 (+27.2%). This price divergence — falling import prices and rising export prices — is consistent with a structural shift whereby the EU concentrates its exports on higher-value or niche products while importing ever-larger volumes of lower-cost garments.

Domestic production collapsed, confirming the structural shift

EU production volumes of knitted men's garments declined from 55.9 million items in 2015 to just 14.0 million items in 2025 — a drop of 75.0%. Production value fell more moderately, from €500 million to €425 million (−15.1%), indicating that surviving EU producers have moved upmarket. The net import reliance ratio surged from 21.9% to 73.8%, confirming that the EU now depends on extra-EU suppliers for nearly three-quarters of its apparent consumption in this product category.

Export propensity rose sharply, reflecting re-export and niche positioning

The export propensity — exports as a share of production — climbed from 27.4% in 2015 to 135.4% in 2025. A value above 100% indicates that exports exceed domestic production, implying that a significant share of EU exports consists of garments that were imported (or assembled from imported inputs) and then re-exported. This is consistent with the EU's role as a logistics and finishing hub rather than a primary manufacturing base for this product category.

2. The Geography of Supply: South Asia Rises, China Holds, the UK Fades

Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Cambodia became the fastest-growing import sources

The most striking feature of the partner landscape is the rapid rise of South and Southeast Asian suppliers.

Bangladesh overtook China as the EU's largest single supplier by 2025, with its import value rising from €140 million to €448 million. Pakistan (+233%), Cambodia (+236%), and India (+244%) all experienced even faster percentage growth, though from smaller bases. These shifts reflect the well-documented relocation of garment manufacturing from China to lower-cost countries, accelerated by EU trade preferences (e.g., Everything But Arms for LDCs) and rising Chinese labour costs.

China remained a major supplier at €412 million, but its growth of 37% was modest by comparison. Its share of total extra-EU imports likely declined substantially over the period.

The United Kingdom shrank on both sides of the trade relationship

The UK's post-Brexit trajectory is visible in the data for both imports and exports. EU imports from the UK fell from €56 million to €28 million (−50.6%), while EU exports to the UK dropped from €137 million to €84 million (−38.3%). The UK had been the EU's largest single export market for CN 6103 in 2015; by 2025, it had fallen to second place behind Switzerland. The import volatility for UK trade flows is the highest among all partners (coefficient of variation of 1.72 for imports), reflecting the disruption caused by the transition to a third-country trading relationship.

The EU's export market structure diversified significantly

On the export side, several non-traditional markets grew rapidly:

Algeria's explosive growth (from under €1 million to €36 million) is particularly notable, though this was accompanied by extreme price volatility (CV of 1.24) and a significant price shock in 2022. The export-side Herfindahl-Hirschman Index fell from 1,577 to 678 (−57%), confirming a broad diversification of export destinations.

EU import concentration also declined, but supply shocks emerged

Import-side concentration fell more moderately, with the HHI declining from 1,645 to 1,410 (−14.3%). While the diversification of suppliers is broadly positive for supply resilience, the 2022 period revealed vulnerabilities: a major price shock was detected for imports from Bangladesh in 2022, with an abnormality score of 42.2 and a unit-price shift of +28.6%, occurring at a time when Bangladesh accounted for 26% of total import value. This coincided with the global commodity price surge and supply-chain disruptions following the pandemic.

3. Trousers Dominate, Cotton Leads, and EU Member States Show Stark Divergences

Cotton and synthetic trousers account for the lion's share of import volumes

At the product segment level, two sub-categories dominated EU imports throughout the period:

Cotton trousers (610342) remained the single largest segment, but synthetic-fibre trousers (610343) grew faster, nearly quadrupling in volume. In value terms, 610342 accounted for €940 million of the €1.93 billion total imports in 2025, while 610343 contributed €564 million. Notably, the per-tonne import price for synthetic trousers (610343) fell sharply in 2025 to €9,560 — down from a peak of €18,097 in 2022 — suggesting either a shift to lower-specification sourcing or competitive price pressure.

Export prices consistently exceed import prices, revealing a quality gap

Across all sub-categories, the EU's export unit values per item are several times higher than import prices. For example, in 2025:

• Cotton trousers (610342): import price €3.92/item vs. export price €14.74/item
• Synthetic-fibre jackets (610333): import price €12.67/item vs. export price €40.42/item
• Cotton jackets (610332): import price €10.91/item vs. export price €62.46/item

This persistent premium confirms that EU exports target higher market segments — premium, designer, or technically differentiated products — while bulk imports serve mass-market retail.

Italy stands out as the EU's production and export powerhouse, while the Netherlands has become an import gateway

Among EU reporting member states, Italy was by far the largest exporter with €196 million in 2025 (up 61% from 2015), reflecting its strong position in higher-end knitted apparel. France (+265% to €74 million) and Germany (+134% to €60 million) also grew their exports significantly. On the import side, the Netherlands saw the most dramatic growth (+241% to €327 million), likely reflecting its role as a logistics and distribution hub (Rotterdam port). Poland's imports surged by 650% to €180 million, consistent with the growth of garment finishing and assembly activities in Central Europe.

In terms of specialisation, Belgium (RCA 2.66), Portugal (2.47), and Italy (1.38) display the strongest comparative advantage in CN 6103 exports among EU members, while Finland, Ireland, and Malta show negligible specialisation.

Conclusion

The EU market for men's knitted suits, trousers, and related garments (CN 6103) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production has collapsed by 75% in volume, while extra-EU imports have surged to fill the gap — growing by 184% in weight and 112% in value. The EU's net import reliance has climbed from 22% to 74%, and the trade deficit has widened to €1.36 billion. The supply landscape has shifted decisively towards South and Southeast Asia: Bangladesh has overtaken China as the leading supplier, and Pakistan, Cambodia, and India have all gained ground rapidly. The UK's role has diminished on both the import and export sides, a clear consequence of Brexit. Meanwhile, EU exports — increasingly concentrated in premium segments — have diversified towards new markets including Algeria, Ukraine, and the United States. The structural vulnerability implied by these trends was laid bare in 2022, when a price shock in Bangladeshi supply coincided with a period of acute global disruption. Going forward, the EU faces the challenge of balancing cost-efficient sourcing from developing-country suppliers against the risks of over-dependence and the continued erosion of its own manufacturing base.