Market evolution: Men's cotton trousers (CN 610342) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the EU trade in men's or boys' cotton trousers (CN 610342) from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a decade of dramatic transformation, characterized by a profound shift in sourcing patterns, a collapse in EU production, and a growing dependency on a small number of Asian suppliers. While the overall market expanded in value, this growth was almost entirely driven by imports, fundamentally altering the EU's trade balance and vulnerability in this product category. The period was also marked by significant volatility, with supply and price shocks highlighting the sector's sensitivity to global disruptions.
1. The Great Shift: Offshoring Accelerates as Domestic Production Collapses
The most fundamental dynamic over the period is the massive growth in EU imports alongside a severe contraction of domestic manufacturing. This has led to a structural change in the EU's market, where the net import reliance surged from 34% in 2015 to 87% in 2025.
Imports Soar in Volume and Value, Driven by Low-Cost Suppliers
EU import volumes grew astronomically, increasing by over 181% in mass quantity and 150% in the number of pieces. In value terms, imports more than doubled, rising from €453 million to €940 million. This growth was not accompanied by a rise in import prices; in fact, the average import price fell by 26%, indicating that the volume expansion was largely supply-driven from cost-competitive origins.
EU Production Enters a Steep Decline
Contrasting sharply with import growth, EU production of these trousers collapsed. The quantity of items produced within the EU fell by 74.6%, from over 33 million pieces in 2015 to just 8.5 million in 2025. The value of production declined by 27.4%, a smaller drop due to a rise in the unit value of the remaining output, suggesting a possible niche shift toward higher-value or specialized manufacturing. This decline underscores the ongoing relocation of the textile and apparel industry to lower-cost regions.
2. A New Geographic Landscape: Asian Dominance and the Post-Brexit UK Rebalancing
The source of the EU's imports has become heavily concentrated in a few Asian countries, while the geographic profile of its exports has been reshaped, most notably by Brexit.
Bangladesh and Pakistan Become the Pillars of EU Supply
While the EU's list of top import partners includes familiar names, the growth rates are revealing.
| Country | Import Value (2015, €M) | Import Value (2025, €M) | Change (%) | Primary Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh | 111.2 | 301.8 | +171.5% | Leading low-cost supplier |
| Pakistan | 58.3 | 154.3 | +164.9% | Major volume supplier |
| Cambodia | 32.0 | 105.9 | +231.3% | Rapidly growing supplier |
| India | 21.8 | 79.2 | +263.7% | Strong growth supplier |
| Türkiye | 50.0 | 78.5 | +57.0% | Proximity/ regional supplier |
| China | 105.2 | 83.1 | -21.0% | Declining but still major |
Bangladesh and Pakistan alone accounted for nearly 49% of the import value in 2025. China, while still significant, saw its share erode, part of a broader "China plus one" strategy in global sourcing. Cambodia and India displayed explosive growth, albeit from a lower base.
Brexit Catalyzes a Collapse in Intra-EU Trade Flows
The most dramatic reorientation occurred in trade with the United Kingdom. Following Brexit, the UK transitioned from the EU's overwhelmingly dominant export destination to a much smaller market. EU exports to the UK fell by 43.7% in value. Simultaneously, the UK's role as an import source to the EU diminished by 43.9%. This de-coupling is a clear structural break, reducing the integration of UK-based design, logistics, and manufacturing within the EU cotton trousers supply chain. In the UK's absence, other export markets like Ukraine, the United States, and Switzerland grew in relative importance for EU exporters, although their absolute values remain small compared to the lost UK trade.
3. Rising Market Vulnerability and Endemic Volatility
The shift to offshore sourcing has significantly increased the EU's strategic vulnerability and exposed the market to pronounced price volatility.
Supply Concentration and Price Shocks
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import sources by value shows a moderate but rising concentration, increasing from 1545 to 1675. This increasing dependency is paired with high volatility. Several major supply-price shocks were detected, most notably in 2022:
- Bangladesh (2022): A price shock with an abnormality score of 30.9 and a 31% price shift. This country, accounting for 34.3% of imports, posed the single largest risk.
- Pakistan (2022): A significant price shock (abnormality 11.8), coinciding with widespread economic and energy crises.
- Cambodia (2019): An earlier price shock (abnormality 11.2).
These events, often tied to energy costs, logistics bottlenecks, or local political instability in supplier countries, directly transmit external shocks into the EU market.
Export Market Concentration Has Diversified, But Remains Volatile
On the export side, the concentration of EU exports has dramatically decreased (HHI fell from 2142 to 808), reflecting the loss of the UK-dominated pre-Brexit landscape. However, exports to individual markets remain volatile. For instance, exports to Türkiye, a growing destination, had a high coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.50, indicating substantial year-on-year swings. This new, more dispersed but smaller export base is inherently less stable than the former, integrated EU-UK market.
Conclusion
The EU market for men's cotton trousers (CN 610342) has undergone a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The defining trend is the near-complete pivot to Asian offshore production, led by Bangladesh and Pakistan, which has fueled import growth while triggering a collapse in domestic manufacturing. This shift, compounded by the disruptive decoupling of UK-EU trade post-Brexit, has fundamentally altered the sector's geography. The consequence is a market with high and growing import dependency, moderate supply concentration, and significant exposure to external price and supply shocks, as evidenced by the events of 2022. While the EU has successfully diversified its export destinations away from the UK, these new markets are smaller and more volatile. Overall, the data points to a highly globalized yet vulnerable market structure, with limited strategic autonomy for the European Union in this segment of the apparel industry.