Market evolution: Knitted women's outerwear (CN 6102) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the EU's external trade in CN 6102 — a composite heading covering women's or girls' knitted or crocheted overcoats, anoraks, ski jackets, windcheaters, and similar outerwear — over the period 2015 to 2025. The product category bundles four sub-headings by material: wool/fine animal hair (610210), cotton (610220), man-made fibres (610230), and other textiles (610290). Over the decade, the EU's import bill nearly doubled while its trade deficit widened significantly, even as EU-based exports and domestic production shifted toward higher-value segments. The following analysis identifies and interprets the principal dynamics behind these trends.
1. Import Surge: Volumes Double While Unit Prices Decline
Imports grew dramatically in volume, with only modest price increases per item
EU imports of CN 6102 from non-EU countries rose from €683.8 million in 2015 to €1,178.8 million in 2025, a gain of 72.4%. However, the underlying volume story is far more striking. By net mass, imports more than doubled — from 37,382 tonnes to 75,851 tonnes (+102.9%). By item count, imports grew from roughly 73.0 million pieces to 114.8 million pieces (+57.3%).
Price dynamics reveal a structural divergence between weight-based and per-item metrics
A critical feature of this period is the divergence between tonne-based and per-item import prices:
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price per tonne (EUR/t) | 18,291 | 15,540 | −15.0% |
| Price per item (EUR/p/st) | 9.37 | 10.25 | +9.4% |
The decline in the tonne-based price, even as the per-item price rose, suggests that the average weight per imported item decreased over the period — consistent with a shift toward lighter garments (e.g., thinner anoraks, technical sportswear in man-made fibres) replacing heavier wool-based or lined coats. The net effect is that EU consumers gained access to substantially more pieces at relatively stable per-unit costs, while the overall import bill grew largely because of volume expansion.
Man-made fibre products dominate and drive the volume expansion
The product segment breakdown reveals that the sub-heading for man-made fibres (610230) accounts for the overwhelming majority of the growth:
| Sub-heading | Import volume 2015 (t) | Import volume 2025 (t) | Change | Import value 2025 (EUR M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 610230 — Man-made fibres | 21,987 | 58,039 | +164.0% | 856.1 |
| 610220 — Cotton | 14,244 | 16,770 | +17.7% | 266.6 |
| 610210 — Wool/fine animal hair | 651 | 759 | +16.7% | 48.2 |
| 610290 — Other textiles | 500 | 282 | −43.6% | 7.9 |
Man-made fibre garments now represent over 76% of all imports by weight and 72.6% by value. Cotton products, while still the second-largest segment, grew only modestly. The dominance of 610230 reflects the global athleisure and technical outerwear trend: synthetic fabrics offer lighter weight, moisture resistance, and lower cost — attributes that align with both consumer preferences and fast-fashion sourcing models.
2. Asian Supply Diversification and the Erosion of Chinese Dominance
China remains the largest single supplier but has lost relative ground
China was the EU's top import source throughout the period, with imports rising from €325.7 million in 2015 to €405.0 million in 2025 (+24.4%). Yet this growth rate is far below the overall import expansion of 72.4%, meaning China's share of EU imports has declined. This is consistent with the broader "China Plus One" strategy pursued by European apparel brands, which began accelerating before the COVID-19 pandemic and intensified during it.
Cambodia, Myanmar, and Pakistan emerged as major growth suppliers
The most dramatic shifts occurred among lower-cost Asian producers:
| Supplier | Import value 2015 (EUR M) | Import value 2025 (EUR M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambodia | 69.0 | 235.1 | +240.9% |
| Myanmar | 6.7 | 85.6 | +1,183.6% |
| Pakistan | 13.1 | 45.6 | +246.9% |
| Bangladesh | 79.7 | 151.9 | +90.6% |
| Viet Nam | 31.6 | 70.4 | +122.5% |
Cambodia's surge is particularly noteworthy: it overtook Bangladesh and now ranks as the EU's third-largest supplier, likely benefiting from EU trade preferences (Everything But Arms) and competitive labour costs. Myanmar's explosive growth — from under €7 million to over €85 million — reflects its pre-2021 integration into global garment supply chains, though political instability may have introduced volatility. Pakistan's tripling of exports to the EU signals its growing capacity in knitted outerwear.
Import concentration has fallen substantially
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 2,610 in 2015 to 1,886 in 2025 (−27.8%). While the market remains moderately concentrated, the downward trend confirms that sourcing is becoming more diversified. This reduces the EU's vulnerability to disruptions in any single country but also reflects the competitive pressures that have reshaped global apparel sourcing over the decade.
Volatility is highest among newer supply partners
The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values highlights that the newest, fastest-growing suppliers are also the most volatile:
| Supplier | CV |
|---|---|
| Myanmar | 0.660 |
| Cambodia | 0.528 |
| Pakistan | 0.431 |
| Bangladesh | 0.210 |
| China | 0.152 |
| Indonesia | 0.134 |
China and Indonesia exhibit the most stable trade flows, while Myanmar's high volatility likely reflects its political and economic disruptions post-2021. This volatility-risk trade-off is a key consideration for importers diversifying away from China.
3. EU Exports, Production, and the Widening Trade Deficit
EU exports grew substantially but could not offset the import surge
EU exports of CN 6102 to non-EU countries rose from €195.8 million in 2015 to €334.0 million in 2025 (+70.6%). By volume, exports grew from 4,204 tonnes to 5,925 tonnes (+40.9%). However, the trade deficit widened from −€488 million to −€845 million (−73.1% in absolute terms), as imports grew even faster.
The net import reliance rose from 45.4% in 2015 to 63.8% in 2025, confirming a growing structural dependence on external suppliers. Export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — surged from 31.3% to 86.1%, suggesting that EU producers increasingly target foreign markets with premium products rather than competing on volume in the domestic market.
EU exports command significantly higher unit values than imports
A persistent feature of the period is the price premium of EU exports:
| Metric | Imports 2025 | Exports 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Price per tonne (EUR/t) | 15,540 | 56,342 |
| Price per item (EUR/p/st) | 10.25 | 35.94 |
EU exports are priced roughly 3.6 times higher per tonne and 3.5 times higher per item than imports. This premium reflects the positioning of EU manufacturers in higher-quality, design-intensive, or branded segments — particularly in wool and fine animal hair products (610210), where the EU export price reached €278,499 per tonne in 2025 compared to €63,424 per tonne for imports of the same sub-heading.
Export destinations shifted markedly, with the UK declining and Switzerland and Türkiye surging
| Export destination | Value 2015 (EUR M) | Value 2025 (EUR M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 69.6 | 34.0 | −51.1% |
| Switzerland | 26.2 | 62.4 | +138.3% |
| Türkiye | 8.0 | 44.6 | +459.6% |
| United States | 14.2 | 24.4 | +72.1% |
| Norway | 4.1 | 10.4 | +153.7% |
| Ukraine | 2.2 | 8.3 | +279.5% |
| Russian Federation | 15.5 | 7.2 | −53.6% |
The UK's halving of imports from the EU is likely linked to post-Brexit trade frictions, while Russia's decline reflects sanctions. Conversely, Switzerland and Türkiye — both geographically close and with distinct trade agreements — absorbed significantly more EU production. Notably, a price shock was detected in EU exports to the US in 2023, with a +171.2% abnormal shift in export unit value, suggesting a possible product-mix change or supply disruption affecting the flow.
Within the EU, production value rose sharply while volume contracted
EU domestic production of CN 6102 shows a striking pattern: the number of items produced fell from 9.3 million in 2015 to 6.4 million in 2025 (−30.7%), yet production value rose from €174.4 million to €396.2 million (+127.2%). This implies that the average value per produced item more than doubled, consistent with a shift toward premium, specialised, or nearshored products within the EU. Spain, Denmark, and Poland emerged as the most specialised EU producers, with Spain's revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) at 0.47 in 2025. Poland's export growth was particularly striking — from €2.0 million to €22.3 million (+1,001.3%) — reflecting its integration into EU nearshoring networks.
Conclusion
The EU market for knitted women's outerwear (CN 6102) underwent profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Import volumes more than doubled, driven overwhelmingly by man-made fibre garments, while unit prices per item remained relatively stable — reflecting a globalised supply chain that delivered ever-greater quantities to European consumers at accessible price points. The sourcing landscape diversified significantly, with Cambodia, Myanmar, and Pakistan gaining ground at the expense of China's market share, although the newest suppliers also introduced greater trade-flow volatility.
On the export side, the EU maintained a strong premium positioning, with export unit values more than three times those of imports. However, this was insufficient to prevent a widening trade deficit and growing net import reliance. Domestic production shifted toward fewer but higher-value items, signalling that EU manufacturers are increasingly competing on quality, design, and speed-to-market rather than volume. The combined effect is a market that is more import-dependent, more diversified in its supply base, and more polarised between high-value EU production and high-volume Asian sourcing.