Market evolution: Women's knitted coats (CN 610230) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in women's or girls' knitted overcoats and similar articles of man-made fibres (customs code 610230) between 2015 and 2025. The decade was marked by significant structural shifts, including a deepening trade deficit, a major reorientation of supply chains away from China and the United Kingdom towards Southeast Asia, and the transformative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the EU, production volumes declined but value increased, suggesting a shift towards higher-value segments, while trade flows were reshaped by Brexit and changing competitive advantages among member states. The analysis is based entirely on the provided trade data for the EU.
1. A Widening Deficit Driven by Surging Import Volumes
The most prominent trend over the decade was a dramatic expansion of the EU's trade deficit in this product category, fuelled by import growth that significantly outpaced export growth.
The trade deficit more than doubled in value
The EU's trade balance for CN 610230 deteriorated substantially, moving from a deficit of €313.6 million in 2015 to a deficit of €690.9 million in 2025, a 120% increase. This was primarily driven by import growth.
Import growth was volume-led, while exports saw stronger price increases
Between 2015 and 2025, the value of imports grew by 114.7%, reaching €856.1 million. This expansion was overwhelmingly volume-driven, with quantity (in tonnes) surging by 164.0%. In contrast, the average import price per tonne actually fell by 18.7%. For exports, the pattern was different. While export value grew robustly by 93.9% to €165.2 million, this was a combination of solid volume growth (+81.0%) and a modest increase in the average price per tonne (+7.1%).
| Metric | Imports (2015) | Imports (2025) | Change | Exports (2015) | Exports (2025) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value (€) | 398.8 M | 856.1 M | +114.7% | 85.2 M | 165.2 M | +93.9% |
| Volume (tonnes) | 21,986.6 | 58,039.4 | +164.0% | 2,365.1 | 4,280.7 | +81.0% |
| Price (€/t) | 18,136.9 | 14,748.3 | -18.7% | 36,020.5 | 38,575.4 | +7.1% |
This divergence indicates that the EU market absorbed a vastly larger physical quantity of imported goods, but at a lower average cost per kilogramme, reinforcing the sector's growing import reliance, which rose from 45.4% to 63.8%.
2. Geographic Diversification of Imports: From China and the UK to Southeast Asia
A profound geographical restructuring of the EU's import sourcing occurred, moving away from traditional partners towards new, often lower-cost, manufacturing hubs.
China's dominant share eroded as Southeast Asian suppliers gained ground
China remained the largest single supplier, but its share of EU imports by value fell from 58.1% in 2015 to 40.3% in 2025. This loss was compensated by explosive growth from several ASEAN nations. Cambodia saw its imports surge by 856% (from €19.9 M to €190.6 M), making it the second-largest supplier by 2025. Similarly, imports from Myanmar (+963%), Bangladesh (+211%), and Vietnam (+91%) grew significantly, collectively creating a more diversified and competitive supply base.
| Partner | 2015 Import Value (€) | 2025 Import Value (€) | Change (%) | Share 2015 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 231.7 M | 345.4 M | +49.1% | 58.1% | 40.3% |
| Cambodia | 19.9 M | 190.6 M | +856.4% | 5.0% | 22.3% |
| Myanmar | 6.7 M | 70.8 M | +962.9% | 1.7% | 8.3% |
| Bangladesh | 30.5 M | 94.8 M | +211.1% | 7.6% | 11.1% |
| Viet Nam | 27.8 M | 53.1 M | +91.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% |
Brexit led to a collapse in UK-EU trade in this category
The United Kingdom's exit from the EU customs union had a stark effect. UK imports into the EU fell by 83.8% (from €18.3 M to €3.0 M), causing its share to plummet from 4.6% to 0.3%. Simultaneously, the EU's exports to the UK declined by 37.8%, from €28.6 M to €17.8 M, indicating the creation of significant non-tariff barriers for this trade flow.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a shock but accelerated existing trends
The 2020 pandemic year saw imports dip by 7.4% in volume terms as demand slumped. However, the recovery was swift and strong; by 2021, import volumes had surpassed 2019 levels. The pandemic also appears to have intensified the price and volatility shock observed in 2022, notably for imports from Bangladesh, where a large price abnormality was detected, likely linked to global supply chain disruptions and cost pressures.
3. Transformation of Intra-EU Production and Trade Flows
While the EU's external trade deficit grew, internal production and trade patterns also underwent significant change, with production shifting towards higher value and some member states emerging as specialised exporters.
EU production volumes decreased, but value increased substantially
EU-wide production quantity for CN 610230 fell by 30.7% over the period, suggesting a retreat from volume-driven manufacturing. Conversely, production value grew by 127.2%. This indicates a strategic pivot towards higher-value-added products, where EU producers may hold a competitive advantage in design, technology, or brand.
Specialisation and internal competitiveness shifted within the EU
Analysis of export specialisation reveals that in 2025, Spain, Denmark, and Poland were the most specialised exporters (highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage). Poland's transformation was particularly dramatic, with its export value growing by over 1300% and its import value by over 630% between 2015 and 2025, indicating its development into a major manufacturing and logistics hub. Meanwhile, traditional textile powerhouses like Italy and Germany saw their export values grow by 83.8% and 31.2%, respectively, but faced increased competition from within the bloc.
Import concentration decreased, pointing to a more competitive market
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell by 33.4%, from 3574 to 2380. This decline in concentration confirms the shift from a market heavily reliant on China to one with multiple major suppliers, which generally reduces single-point dependency risks for the EU market.
Conclusion
Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU market for women's knitted outerwear (CN 610230) became significantly more reliant on imports, with the trade deficit more than doubling. This was not a simple expansion but a fundamental restructuring of supply chains. The EU pivoted away from China and, crucially, the United Kingdom, towards a cluster of Southeast Asian nations, led by Cambodia. Internally, EU production moved away from high-volume manufacturing towards higher-value segments. Member states like Poland, Spain, and Italy emerged as key players in intra-EU and external trade, while the market as a whole became more diversified and competitive in its sourcing. The data reflects a decade of adaptation to globalisation pressures, geopolitical shifts like Brexit, and pandemic-induced shocks, resulting in a more geographically dispersed but also more import-dependent European market.