Market evolution: Knit tops (CN 6109) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 6109 covers T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knitted or crocheted — one of the highest-volume consumer textile categories traded globally. The European Union has long been a major net importer of these products, but the period 2015–2025 saw significant structural changes in supply geography, production footprint, and price dynamics. This report draws on EU-level trade data (Extra-EU flows) and production figures to identify the most salient trends over the decade. Three main dynamics stand out: the near-collapse of EU domestic production and the resulting surge in import dependence; the growing dominance of Bangladesh alongside a post-Brexit reconfiguration of partner geography; and a pronounced divergence between stable import prices and rapidly rising export unit values, punctuated by notable supply-side shocks.

1. From Self-Sufficiency to Outsourcing: The Collapse of EU Production

EU domestic output has shrunk by more than two-thirds in volume

Between 2015 and 2025, EU production of knit tops fell from 615.2 million items to just 195.0 million items, a decline of −68.3%. Production value declined more moderately, from €2.46 billion to €1.60 billion (−34.9%), indicating that the items still produced in the EU command higher unit values — likely reflecting premium, niche, or fast-fashion proximity sourcing.

The EU trade deficit widened to over €6 billion

As domestic production contracted, the EU's trade deficit in knit tops grew from −€5.75 billion in 2015 to −€6.28 billion in 2025 (−9.2% further deterioration). Import value rose by 18.5% (from €7.96 billion to €9.43 billion), while export value grew faster at 42.9% (from €2.20 billion to €3.15 billion). However, the gap remained large in absolute terms. The most notable year for the deficit was 2022, when it reached −€6.64 billion, driven by a surge in import costs linked to post-pandemic restocking and global inflation.

Net import reliance surged from 16% to 78%

Perhaps the starkest indicator of structural change is the net import reliance ratio, which jumped from 16.2% in 2015 to 78.2% in 2025 — a fourfold increase. This metric captures the share of apparent consumption that must be met by net imports (imports minus exports, divided by production plus imports minus exports). The trajectory underscores that the EU's consumption of knit tops is now overwhelmingly dependent on extra-EU suppliers, a vulnerability that contrasts sharply with the situation a decade ago.

2. Bangladesh's Growing Dominance and a Post-Brexit Reconfiguration of Supply Chains

Bangladesh consolidated its position as the EU's primary supplier

Bangladesh was already the largest extra-EU supplier of knit tops in 2015, with imports valued at €2.60 billion. By 2025, this had risen to €3.90 billion (+49.7%), giving Bangladesh a 41.3% share of total EU extra-EU imports by value. Bangladesh's share grew even larger during the pandemic recovery: it peaked at €4.31 billion in 2022. The country also exhibits the lowest import volatility among major suppliers (coefficient of variation of 0.12), reflecting the deep and stable integration of Bangladeshi garment factories into EU retail supply chains.

Brexit sharply reduced the UK's role in both import and export flows

The United Kingdom experienced the most dramatic decline of any partner. As an import source, UK shipments to the EU fell from €401 million in 2015 to just €102 million in 2025 (−74.6%), with the sharpest drop occurring around 2020–2021 as post-Brexit customs barriers took effect. The coefficient of variation for UK imports was by far the highest among major partners at 0.75, reflecting this structural break. As an export destination, the UK also declined from €669 million to €426 million (−36.3%), though it remained the single largest extra-EU export market. This bilateral contraction is consistent with the UK leaving the EU customs union and the introduction of Rules of Origin requirements that have made re-export and triangulated trade flows more cumbersome.

Import concentration increased while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose from 1,824 to 2,159 (+18.4%), indicating growing supplier concentration — primarily driven by Bangladesh's expansion and the UK's exit from the picture. This level places imports in a moderately concentrated zone. By contrast, the HHI for exports fell from 1,259 to 776 (−38.4%), reflecting meaningful diversification of EU export destinations. Notable growth markets for EU knit-top exports include China (from €91 million to €308 million, +236.7%), the United States (from €117 million to €223 million, +90.0%), Türkiye (from €59 million to €154 million, +163.5%), and Switzerland (from €289 million to €536 million, +85.4%).

Within the EU, export specialisation is concentrated in Southern and Central Europe

Revealed comparative advantage analysis for 2025 shows that Portugal is by far the most specialised EU exporter in knit tops (RSCA of 0.59, RCA of 3.91), followed by Denmark (RSCA 0.39), Spain (RSCA 0.21), Bulgaria (RSCA 0.20), and Poland (RSCA 0.17). Poland stands out as a large-volume exporter (9.3% of EU exports in this product, 6.6% of total Polish exports). At the other end, Ireland, Malta, Finland, and Estonia show no meaningful specialisation in this category. Among EU Member States, Italy is the largest exporter by value (€877 million in 2025, +84.5% vs. 2015), followed by Germany (€542 million) and France (€466 million, +118.5%).

3. Price Divergence, Cotton Dominance, and Supply-Side Shocks

EU export prices rose far more than import prices, signalling a value-add shift

Over the decade, import unit prices (per tonne) were relatively stable, moving from €15,702/t to €15,249/t (−2.9%). By contrast, export prices surged from €37,039/t to €56,799/t (+53.3%). On a per-item basis, the divergence is even more striking: import prices per piece fell from €2.56 to €2.08 (−18.7%), while export prices per piece rose from €6.45 to €10.71 (+65.9%). This pattern is consistent with the EU increasingly importing basic, low-cost knit tops from Asian suppliers while exporting higher-value, branded, or technically differentiated garments — a classic intra-industry specialisation dynamic in textiles and apparel.

Cotton dominates import volumes but non-cotton commands higher unit values

Cotton knit tops (CN 610910) account for the vast majority of both import and export volumes. In 2025, cotton items represented 479,587 tonnes of imports versus 138,805 tonnes for non-cotton (610990). However, non-cotton imports carry a substantially higher per-tonne price (€18,694/t vs. €14,252/t in 2025), reflecting the inclusion of synthetic, blended, or performance fabrics. On the export side, the non-cotton segment has been in steep decline — export volumes of 610990 fell from 21,607 tonnes to 9,982 tonnes (−53.8%) — while cotton export volumes showed more resilience. Notably, the per-piece import price for cotton items dropped sharply in 2025 to €1.76 (from €2.22 in 2015), suggesting intensified price competition or a shift toward lighter-weight garments from Bangladesh.

A major price shock hit Bangladesh-sourced imports in 2022

The shock detection analysis identified the most significant anomaly as a price shock on imports from Bangladesh centred on 2022, with an abnormality score of 44.0 and a price shift of +27.1%. This affected flows representing 47.9% of total import value — making it a systemic event rather than a niche disruption. The timing aligns with the global cotton price spike of 2022 (driven by poor harvests and speculative activity), rising shipping costs from South Asia, and post-COVID demand recovery. Bangladesh, as the dominant supplier, transmitted these cost pressures directly into EU import values, pushing the overall import bill to its decade peak of €9.99 billion in 2022 before easing in subsequent years.

Conclusion

The EU knit-top market (CN 6109) has undergone a fundamental transformation over 2015–2025. Domestic production has contracted by more than two-thirds, pushing net import reliance from 16% to 78% and leaving the bloc structurally dependent on extra-EU suppliers. Bangladesh has been the primary beneficiary of this outsourcing trend, consolidating its position as the EU's single largest supplier and growing its shipments by nearly 50% in value — though this concentration has also increased the EU's exposure to supply-side shocks, as the 2022 Bangladesh price spike demonstrated. Meanwhile, Brexit has redrawn the EU's trade map with the United Kingdom, sharply reducing a previously significant bilateral flow. On the value side, a striking divergence has emerged: import unit prices have been flat to declining, reflecting the commodity-like nature of most sourcing, while EU export unit values have surged by over 50%, suggesting that the Union's remaining role in this category is increasingly oriented toward higher-margin, differentiated products. For policymakers and industry stakeholders, the key vulnerability lies in the combination of import concentration and the near-total loss of domestic production capacity — a structural dependence that leaves the EU exposed to both geopolitical and logistics risks in its textile supply chains.