Market evolution: Cotton t-shirts (CN 610910) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's trade in knitted or crocheted cotton t-shirts, singlets, and other vests (customs code 610910) over the period 2015-2025. The analysis is based on annual trade data, focusing on trends in value, volume, prices, partner countries, and structural market changes. The decade saw a significant transformation in the EU's position, characterized by a growing dependence on imports, a collapse in domestic production, and notable shifts in sourcing and export patterns.

The Accelerating Gap: EU Import Growth Outpaces Exports

The EU's trade in cotton t-shirts is marked by a persistent and widening structural deficit. While both imports and exports in value terms grew, the expansion of imports significantly outstripped that of exports, deepening the region's reliance on external suppliers.

A Deepening Trade Deficit

The EU's trade deficit in this product category widened over the period. The deficit stood at -€3.94 billion in 2015 and grew to -€4.35 billion by 2025, a 10.3% deterioration. This growth occurred despite a notable 85.5% increase in export value, because import value expanded by 29.5% from a much higher base, rising from €5.28 billion to €6.84 billion. The trade overview illustrates this dynamic.

Price Dynamics: EU Exports Become Premium Priced

A key driver of value growth, particularly for exports, was rising unit prices. The average export price per tonne increased by 54.6% (from €35,438 to €54,804), while the supplementary price per piece rose by 76.2% (from €5.89 to €10.37). In contrast, import prices remained relatively stable, with the price per tonne increasing by only 4.7% and the price per piece actually declining by 20.7%. This suggests EU-based production or re-export activity has shifted towards higher-value segments, while bulk imports from low-cost economies have kept aggregate import prices in check.

Quantity Tells a Different Story

The volume trends reveal the extent of the structural shift. By mass (tonnes), exports grew by 20.0% and imports by 23.6%. However, the supplementary unit count—number of items—shows a stark contrast: imports surged by 63.1% (from 2.38 billion to 3.89 billion items), while exports grew by only 5.3%. This indicates that the EU is importing a vastly greater number of garments while its export volume has stagnated, pointing to a fundamental hollowing out of local production capacity.

Shifting Sands: The Reconfiguration of Trading Partners

The decade witnessed a significant reordering of the EU's key trading partners for cotton t-shirts, driven by cost competition, post-Brexit trade adjustments, and a concentration of sourcing in Asia.

Bangladesh Consolidates its Dominance in EU Imports

Bangladesh solidified its position as the EU's primary supplier. Its share of EU imports by value grew substantially, with imports rising from €2.37 billion in 2015 to €3.49 billion in 2025 (+47.3%). Other traditional Asian suppliers like India (+15.8%) and, notably, Pakistan (+394.1%) also strengthened. Meanwhile, China, though still a major supplier, saw its import value fall by 8.4%, continuing a trend of relative decline. The most dramatic shift was the plunge in imports from the United Kingdom, which fell by 74.8% post-Brexit, reflecting the new customs barriers. This reconfiguration is detailed in the top partners data.

EU Export Markets Diversify with Strong Growth in China and the US

EU exports showed a different pattern of diversification. While exports to the United Kingdom, the largest single market, fell by 19.1%, exports to China and the United States boomed, increasing by 339.1% and 143.3% respectively. Switzerland and Türkiye also emerged as significantly more important destinations. This shift suggests EU exporters are finding growth in distant, often more lucrative, markets.

Internal Market Dynamics: Production Collapses, Polish Imports Soar

The EU's internal market structure underwent a severe transformation. Domestic production of cotton t-shirts collapsed, with the number of items produced falling by 68.3% from 615 million to 195 million. Consequently, the EU's net import reliance surged from 16.2% to 78.2%. Within the EU, the role of member states as importers shifted dramatically. Imports into Poland, for instance, grew by 370.5%, positioning it as a major logistics and distribution hub for the bloc, as seen in the top EU importers.

Structural Vulnerabilities and Price Shocks

The EU's reconfigured trade model—characterized by high import dependence and concentrated sourcing—has exposed it to specific vulnerabilities, most acutely demonstrated by price shocks in 2022.

Rising Vulnerability and Specialization Patterns

The market exhibits signs of increased vulnerability. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, for imports increased by 17.8%, indicating growing reliance on a narrower set of suppliers. Simultaneously, the export market became less concentrated (HHI fell by 37.8%). Specialization data for 2025 shows that among EU members, Portugal displays the strongest comparative advantage in this product, while large economies like Ireland and Finland are highly unspecialized.

The 2022 Price Shock: A Case Study in Dependency

A major price shock was detected in 2022, primarily affecting EU imports from Bangladesh and India. For Bangladesh, the average import price experienced an abnormal shift of 76.8%, increasing by 28.2% that year. Given Bangladesh's 60.2% value share, this shock had a systemic impact. A smaller but significant shock was also recorded for Indian imports. These events, detailed in the supply shocks analysis, likely reflect global disruptions in the cotton and textile supply chains during 2022, underscoring the risks of dependency on a few key external producers.

Volatility in Key Trade Lanes

Beyond singular shocks, the data reveals persistently high volatility in specific trade flows. Coefficient of Variation (CV) analysis shows that EU exports to Panama and imports from the United Kingdom have been extremely volatile (CVs of 3.11 and 0.78, respectively). High volatility is also observed in exports to Ukraine and imports from Pakistan and Vietnam, indicating these are less stable trade relationships.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's market for cotton t-shirts fundamentally transformed. The region evolved from a modestly import-dependent market into a heavily import-reliant one, as domestic production was scaled down by nearly 70%. This shift was powered by the explosive growth in imports, particularly from Bangladesh, and enabled by the relatively stable pricing of those imports.

The EU's export profile also changed, moving towards higher-priced, possibly more specialized segments and diversifying into distant markets like China and the USA. However, this structural change has come at the cost of increased vulnerability. The market is now more concentrated on a few key import suppliers and has demonstrated acute sensitivity to price shocks originating in those sourcing countries, as seen in 2022. The data paints a clear picture of a market that has fully embraced global supply chain integration for consumption, while seeing its own industrial base for this product category contract significantly.