Market evolution: Knit tops (CN 610990) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in "T-shirts, singlets and other vests of textile materials, knitted or crocheted (excl. cotton)" under customs code 610990 for the period 2015 to 2025. The product scope includes items made from man-made fibres, wool, or other textile materials. The decade was marked by profound structural shifts: a sharp decline in EU domestic production, a corresponding surge in import reliance, and significant realignments in the bloc's trading partners. The overall trade balance worsened considerably, moving from a deficit of €1.82 billion in 2015 to €1.94 billion in 2025.
I. A Decade of Structural Retreat: The Collapse of EU Production and Exports
The most striking feature of the period is the substantial contraction of the EU's domestic industry for this product category, which fundamentally altered its trade profile.
Domestic production volumes have halved
EU production quantity fell from 615 million items in 2015 to just 195 million items in 2025, a decline of 68.3%. Production value followed a similar, though less pronounced, downward trajectory, dropping by 34.9% over the same period. This indicates a severe reduction in the scale of EU manufacturing for knitwear excluding cotton, likely driven by competitive pressures and offshoring.
EU exports contracted in both volume and value
Mirroring the production decline, EU exports to the world fell significantly. By volume (tonnes), exports shrank by 53.8% from 21,607 tonnes to 9,982 tonnes. The value decline was less severe (-23.6%) due to rising unit prices. The number of individual items exported fell by 52.5%, confirming the volume trend. Spain and Belgium, once major exporters within the EU, saw their export values collapse by 80.0% and 72.0% respectively between 2015 and 2025.
| Metric (Exports) | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value (EUR) | 861 M | 658 M | -23.6% |
| Volume (tonnes) | 21,607 t | 9,982 t | -53.8% |
| Supplementary Quantity (items) | 113 M | 54 M | -52.5% |
II. The Rising Tide of Imports: Shifting Sources and Growing Dependency
As domestic production waned, the EU's reliance on imports to meet demand increased dramatically, reshaping its global supply chains.
Import reliance intensified sharply
The EU's net import reliance for CN 610990 products soared from 16.2% in 2015 to 78.2% in 2025. This metric underscores that the EU has become predominantly dependent on external suppliers. Import volumes (tonnes) grew by 17.0% over the period, but the value of imports remained relatively flat (-3.0%), suggesting increased price competition or a shift towards lower-cost sourcing.
Geographic sourcing patterns were transformed
The top import partners underwent significant shifts:
- Türkiye lost its dominant position, with import values halving (-50.2%). Its share in the EU's import market eroded from a leading role in 2015.
- Viet Nam emerged as a major winner, with import values increasing by 245.0%, making it a key supplier by 2025.
- Bangladesh also saw strong growth (+74.3%), consolidating its role as a major source.
- China maintained its position as the largest single supplier, with a stable value (+2.3%), but its relative share decreased as the market diversified.
- Trade with the United Kingdom collapsed post-Brexit, with imports falling by 74.2% in value.
| Top Partner (by 2025 Import Value) | 2015 Value (EUR) | 2025 Value (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 681 M | 696 M | +2.3% |
| Türkiye | 822 M | 409 M | -50.2% |
| Bangladesh | 233 M | 405 M | +74.3% |
| Viet Nam | 73 M | 253 M | +245.0% |
| United Kingdom | 108 M | 28 M | -74.2% |
III. Price Dynamics and Market Concentration
Beyond volumes, the period saw notable trends in pricing and the structure of trade flows, influenced by shocks and evolving supplier landscapes.
Unit values diverged between trade flows
EU import prices per tonne declined by 17.1%, falling from €22,547 to €18,694. In contrast, export prices per tonne surged by 65.3%, reaching €65,847. This widening gap reflects the EU's transition towards exporting higher-value items (or re-exporting processed goods) while sourcing lower-cost basics from Asia. A price shock was detected for imports from Bangladesh in 2018.
Market concentration decreased for both imports and exports
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners fell from 1760 to 1414, and for export partners from 1467 to 1212. This indicates a diversification of trade flows, moving away from a few dominant partners. Despite the overall rise in imports, the EU is not becoming more reliant on a single country, which may mitigate some supply chain risks.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU market for non-cotton knit tops (CN 610990) underwent a fundamental restructuring. Driven by a steep decline in domestic production, the bloc evolved from a more balanced trading entity to one heavily reliant on imports, with net import reliance reaching 78%. This demand was met through a reconfigured supply chain, characterized by the rise of Viet Nam and Bangladesh and the decline of Türkiye and the UK. While the trade deficit persisted, the nature of trade shifted: the EU now exports fewer but higher-priced items while importing greater volumes at lower average prices. The diversification of suppliers, evidenced by falling HHI indices, suggests the EU has actively sought to spread sourcing risk, though its overall dependency on external production has increased substantially. The future stability of this market will hinge on continued supply chain adaptability and the competitiveness of its niche, higher-value export segment.