Market evolution: T-shirts and vests (CN 61099020) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 61099020 covers T-shirts, singlets, and other vests made of wool, fine animal hair, or man-made fibres, knitted or crocheted. This subheading sits within the broader non-cotton T-shirt category (CN 610990) and corresponds to the EU's Prodcom domain 14.14.30.00. Over the eleven years from 2015 to 2025, the EU's external trade in this product underwent a profound structural transformation.

At first glance, the headline trade deficit appears broadly stable—moving from −€1,741 million in 2015 to −€1,762 million in 2025. Beneath that surface stability, however, the underlying dynamics shifted dramatically. EU domestic production of these garments collapsed by nearly 70 % in volume, while imports by mass actually rose by 12.5 %. The composition of the supplier base was redrawn: Türkiye lost roughly half of its share, whereas Viet Nam and Bangladesh surged. On the export side, volumes more than halved but unit values rose by over 50 %, pointing to a retreat into higher-value niche segments. Three interlinked themes recur throughout this report: (1) a manufacturing retreat that deepened the EU's reliance on external supply; (2) a reconfiguration of the import supplier base away from Türkiye toward South and Southeast Asia; and (3) a contraction of export volumes compounded by geopolitical disruptions in key markets.

1. Manufacturing Retreat and the Deepening Import Gap

1.1 EU domestic production fell by nearly 70 % in volume

EU industrial production of T-shirts and vests in this category declined from 615 million pieces in 2015 to 195 million pieces in 2025—a drop of 68.3 %. Production value declined more moderately, from €2,459 million to €1,600 million (−34.9 %). The fact that value fell by roughly half the rate of quantity indicates that surviving domestic output shifted toward higher-unit-value products: lower-value mass-market production was offshored or discontinued, while EU manufacturers retained or expanded premium lines.

1.2 Import volumes grew while values stagnated, revealing a compositional shift

Over the same period, extra-EU imports by mass rose from 109,172 tonnes to 122,794 tonnes (+12.5 %), yet import value actually declined from €2,435 million to €2,247 million (−7.7 %) trade overview. This divergence is reflected in unit prices:

The simultaneous decline in mass-based prices (−17.9 % per tonne) and rise in piece-based prices (+11.5 % per piece) points to a lighter average garment weight—consistent with a compositional shift toward lighter man-made fibres and away from heavier wool products. Meanwhile, the decline in piece count (−17.2 %) alongside a rise in tonnage (+12.5 %) further suggests that sourcing moved toward cheaper, heavier per-unit items such as blended synthetic vests, even as per-piece prices edged upward.

1.3 Vulnerability indicators confirm a structural shift toward import dependency

The collapse of domestic production and the resilience of import flows combined to drive the EU's net import reliance from 16.2 % to 78.2 %—a 382 % increase. The trade intensity ratio surged from 24.9 % to 114.8 %, meaning the value of external trade now exceeds domestic production. The export propensity metric rose from 5.9 % to 196.8 %, driven less by export growth (which was negative) than by the collapse of the production denominator.

In sum, the EU has shifted from a market where domestic production met a significant share of demand to one overwhelmingly supplied from abroad.

2. The Reconfiguration of the EU's Sourcing Map

2.1 Türkiye lost its dominance while China remained broadly stable

In 2015, Türkiye was the EU's largest non-EU supplier at €779 million—well ahead of second-placed China at €590 million (top partners). By 2025, Türkiye's imports had been roughly halved to €383 million (−50.8 %), while China's contracted only marginally to €553 million (−6.3 %). China thus became the dominant supplier in value terms.

Türkiye's decline likely reflects rising domestic costs, persistent currency volatility, and intensifying competition from lower-cost Asian producers. India similarly lost ground (−60.3 %), while Cambodia experienced a more moderate decline (−18.2 %).

2.2 Viet Nam and Bangladesh emerged as the fastest-growing suppliers

The most striking growth came from Viet Nam (+244.2 %, from €70 million to €242 million) and Bangladesh (+63.2 %, from €219 million to €358 million) top partners. Together, their combined share grew from €289 million to €600 million, rising from roughly 12 % to 27 % of total EU imports. This reorientation reflects the broader shift of textile and apparel supply chains toward South and Southeast Asia, driven by competitive labour costs, preferential trade access (such as the EU's Everything But Arms arrangement for least-developed countries), and steady improvements in manufacturing capacity.

The United Kingdom's imports into the EU fell from €80 million to €22 million (−72.5 %). While the UK was an EU member for most of the period, its reclassification as a third country after Brexit (January 2021) helps explain the decline in its share of extra-EU import flows.

2.3 Import concentration decreased as the supplier base diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value fell from 1,787 in 2015 to 1,352 in 2025 (−24.3 %). The volume-based HHI declined even more steeply, from 1,741 to 1,168 (−32.9 %). While the market remains moderately concentrated—reflecting the continued weight of China—the declining HHI signals meaningful diversification across suppliers. The EU is less reliant on any single dominant source than it was a decade ago, which, all else equal, enhances supply resilience.

2.4 EU member states' import patterns shifted in divergent directions

Among EU member states, Germany remained the largest importer by a wide margin, though its share declined from €851 million to €612 million (−28.1 %) (top reporters). The Netherlands bucked the overall trend, increasing imports from €287 million to €375 million (+30.8 %) and consolidating its role as a logistics and distribution hub. Italy also saw modest growth (€156M → €178M, +14.1 %), while France (−20.9 %), Belgium (−27.3 %), and Spain (−7.1 %) recorded declines.

3. Export Contraction, Price Upgrading, and Geopolitical Realignment

3.1 EU exports shifted toward fewer, higher-value items

EU exports declined dramatically by volume—from 16,030 tonnes in 2015 to 7,387 tonnes in 2025 (−53.9 %)—and by value, from €693 million to €485 million (−30.0 %) trade overview. Crucially, the fall in value was considerably less severe than the fall in volume, implying a substantial increase in unit values:

The EU's export profile in this category has thus evolved from a broad-based production base toward a narrower, higher-value segment—consistent with the survival of premium, branded, or technically advanced garments in the EU's export basket while lower-value production migrated offshore. In 2025, the export price per piece (€11.21) was roughly 2.8 times the import price per piece (€4.02), underscoring the positioning of EU exports in the upper end of the market.

3.2 Brexit and geopolitical tensions reshaped key export destinations

The top export partners data reveal striking shifts driven by political and geopolitical events:

The United Kingdom—the EU's single largest export market in 2015—saw purchases collapse from €234 million to €93 million (−60.1 %). This was by far the largest absolute decline among all destinations and reflects the trade friction introduced by Brexit and the reorientation of UK sourcing toward non-EU suppliers.

Exports to the Russian Federation fell from €44 million to €19 million (−56.9 %), with the decline accelerating after 2022. A significant price shock was detected in EU exports to Russia in 2022 (abnormality score 11.6), with export unit values rising by 26.9 %—likely reflecting both the sanctions-driven contraction in volumes and compositional shifts in the remaining trade.

By contrast, exports to Switzerland rose from €104 million to €146 million (+40.7 %) and to Norway from €30 million to €43 million (+46.4 %). These two neighbouring non-EU European markets appear to have absorbed some of the demand displaced from the UK and Russia, benefiting from geographic proximity and stable regulatory frameworks. Mexico recorded the steepest proportional decline (−84.8 %), while Saudi Arabia experienced a sharp price shock in 2023, with export unit values jumping by 74.8 %—the most abnormal price event detected in the dataset.

3.3 EU member state exporters diverged sharply

The contraction of exports was not evenly distributed across the EU. Spain, the second-largest exporter in 2015 at €201 million, saw its exports collapse to just €33 million (−83.5 %) top reporters. Belgium similarly contracted from €86 million to €20 million (−76.4 %). By contrast, Italy increased its exports from €59 million to €82 million (+38.7 %), consistent with the country's specialisation in higher-value apparel. Germany, the largest exporter, experienced only a modest decline (€178M → €164M, −7.6 %).

Looking at 2025 specialisation indices, Denmark (RSCA = 0.45), Portugal (0.37), and Bulgaria (0.34) are the most specialised EU exporters in this product category. Denmark's RCA of 2.65 indicates a particularly strong revealed comparative advantage. Spain, despite its steep export decline, retains a positive RSCA (0.18), suggesting that its remaining exports are still relatively specialised—though the absolute scale has diminished dramatically.

3.4 Supply-side volatility varied widely across partners

The coefficient of variation of trade flows reveals substantial differences in stability across partners:

The United Kingdom stands out as the most volatile import source (CV = 0.996), reflecting the structural break caused by Brexit. Among Asian suppliers, China (0.178) and Bangladesh (0.159) show relatively stable import flows, while Cambodia (0.427) and India (0.452) are considerably more volatile. On the export side, Switzerland is the most stable destination (CV = 0.091), reinforcing its role as a reliable market, while China (0.796) and Mexico (0.700) are the most erratic.

A notable supply-side shock in imports was detected for Bangladesh in 2018, where import prices dropped by 12.9 % (abnormality score 13.2). Given that Bangladesh accounted for 16.5 % of import value by 2025, this price adjustment was significant for the overall import bill.

Conclusion

The decade from 2015 to 2025 saw a fundamental restructuring of the EU's trade in T-shirts and vests of wool, fine animal hair, or man-made fibres. The most consequential development was the near-70 % collapse in EU domestic production, which transformed the EU from a partially self-sufficient producer into a market overwhelmingly reliant on imports—net import reliance surged from 16.2 % to 78.2 %.

The import supplier base was redrawn. Türkiye, once the dominant supplier, lost roughly half its share, while Viet Nam (+244 %) and Bangladesh (+63 %) emerged as the principal beneficiaries of supply-chain diversification. Import concentration, as measured by the HHI, declined by 24 %, signalling a more diversified—though still Asia-centric—sourcing landscape. At the EU member-state level, the Netherlands gained ground as a logistics hub, while Germany's import share contracted.

On the export side, the EU's external sales shrank by more than half in volume but rose by over 50 % in unit price, suggesting a retreat into premium, niche products. The United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market and the imposition of sanctions on Russia removed or reduced two of the EU's most important export destinations, while Switzerland and Norway partially filled the gap. Italy emerged as the most dynamic EU exporter, increasing its share through higher-value positioning.

Looking ahead, the combination of deep import dependency and geographically concentrated supply chains raises important questions for the EU's strategic autonomy in this segment of the textile and apparel sector. The trend toward fewer but more expensive exports, coexisting with an ever-larger import bill sourced primarily from a handful of Asian economies, is a structural configuration that may warrant close attention from both trade and industrial policy perspectives.