Market evolution: Cotton knit shirts (CN 610510) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's trade in men's or boys' cotton knitted or crocheted shirts (CN 610510) from 2015 to 2025. Over this period, the market has undergone significant structural shifts. While the EU's import bill remained relatively stable, its export performance in terms of value improved, leading to a narrowing trade deficit. This occurred alongside a dramatic contraction in domestic production volumes, a reorientation of trade partners, and a rise in unit values, indicating a move towards higher-value or more expensive products. The analysis is based on trade statistics provided in the JSON data.

1. A Widening Deficit in Volume, Narrowed in Value

The EU's trade balance for cotton knit shirts tells a nuanced story of diverging trends between physical volumes and monetary values, highlighting a fundamental shift in the market.

The Persistent Trade Deficit and Its Composition

The EU consistently runs a trade deficit in this product category, as indicated by its net import reliance, which grew from 40.5% in 2015 to 62.5% in 2025. However, the nature of this deficit changed markedly over the decade.

• In value (EUR): The deficit contracted by 15.1%, from -€791.5 million in 2015 to -€672.2 million in 2025. This improvement is notable given the growth in import values.
• In volume (tonnes): The underlying physical deficit widened. While import tonnage was relatively stable (+0.8%), export tonnage fell sharply by -17.2%. This suggests the EU is importing similar mass but exporting less physical product.
• In item count (pieces): The gap widened further. The quantity of imported items decreased slightly (-2.4%), but exports of items plunged by -26.9%.

The Price Divergence: A Move Upmarket

The reconciliation of these trends lies in a dramatic divergence in unit prices between exports and imports.

Export prices more than doubled in per-piece terms, while import prices saw only modest increases. This indicates that EU exports of these shirts have shifted towards significantly higher-value segments (e.g., designer brands, technical fabrics, or sustainable lines), allowing the EU to maintain or even grow export revenues while shipping fewer items.

2. Shifting Partners and Specialized Production

The landscape of key trading partners transformed between 2015 and 2025, with sourcing becoming more concentrated while export destinations diversified. Concurrently, EU production collapsed in volume but grew in value.

Import Sourcing: Bangladesh's Dominance and the UK's Retreat

The concentration of EU imports increased (HHI from 1,986 to 2,659), largely driven by the rise of Bangladesh and the fall of the United Kingdom.

• Bangladesh solidified its position as the primary supplier, with its share of EU import value growing from €426 million (2015) to €552 million (2025), a +29.4% increase.
• The United Kingdom's share collapsed by -78.8%, falling from €53 million to €11 million. This is a direct consequence of Brexit, which introduced customs barriers and rules of origin complexities.
• China's role diminished, with its import value dropping by -37.9%.
• Pakistan emerged as a significant growth story, with its exports to the EU surging by +122.6%.

Export Destinations: Loss of the UK, Gains in the US and Switzerland

EU exporters compensated for the loss of the UK market by focusing on non-EU destinations, notably the United States and Switzerland.

• Exports to the United Kingdom halved (-54.4%) in value, from €128 million to €58 million, again reflecting Brexit impacts.
• Exports to the United States grew by +146.7%, becoming a much larger market.
• Exports to Switzerland increased by +150.5%.
• Exports to China also saw remarkable growth (+208.3%), indicating growing demand in that market for EU-produced knitwear.

The volatility of exports to some partners was high, notably to Panama (CV of 2.98) and Ukraine (0.48).

Domestic Production: Volume Collapse, Value Increase

EU production underwent a severe contraction in volume while achieving strong value growth, underscoring the move towards higher-value manufacturing.

• Production volume (items) fell by -50.1%, from 74.9 million pieces in 2015 to 37.4 million in 2025.
• Production value grew by +14.3%, from €434 million to €496 million.

This confirms a strategic shift within the EU: producing far fewer shirts but at a much higher average price, competing on design, quality, or sustainability rather than volume.

3. Strategic Vulnerabilities and Market Volatility

The EU's increasing reliance on imports, coupled with the volatility of key partners and detected price shocks, points to emerging strategic vulnerabilities in this supply chain.

Rising Import Dependence and Trade Openness

Key indicators from the Autonomy & Vulnerability section highlight this trend:

• Net import reliance grew from 40.5% to 62.5%.
• Trade intensity (the ratio of trade to production) increased from 72.1% to 106.7%, meaning the EU now trades more than it produces.
• Export propensity (exports relative to production) skyrocketed by +203.9%, indicating that a growing share of the remaining EU production is destined for export markets.

Volatility and Shocks in the Supply Chain

The supply of imports is subject to varying degrees of volatility. Partners like Cambodia (CV 0.40) and Pakistan (CV 0.34) show high variability, while traditional suppliers like Bangladesh (CV 0.11) are more stable.

Furthermore, price shocks were detected, such as a significant price spike for exports to Morocco in 2018 and to the United Arab Emirates in 2023. While these shocks had a limited impact on the total EU export value (1.0% and 4.6% share respectively), they signal pricing instability in specific markets.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU market for cotton knit shirts (CN 610510) transformed fundamentally. The EU's trade deficit improved in value terms not through reduced imports, but through a strategic repositioning of exports into higher-value segments, doubling their unit price. Domestically, this was mirrored by a halving of production volume coupled with growth in production value.

The partner landscape was reshaped by geopolitical events like Brexit, which drastically reduced trade with the United Kingdom, and by the growing dominance of Bangladesh as an import source. The EU's increasing net import reliance, coupled with the volatility of certain suppliers and specific price shocks, highlights a growing strategic vulnerability in the supply chain. Overall, the data depicts an EU industry that has retreated from mass-market production but leverages its remaining capacity for high-value export niches, while its consumption base remains firmly supported by global, particularly Asian, suppliers.