Market evolution: Cotton knit trousers (CN 610462) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the trade dynamics of Women's or girls' trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts of cotton, knitted or crocheted (CN 610462) within the European Union for the period 2015 to 2025. Over this decade, the EU market has been characterized by a significant structural shift toward greater import reliance, alongside notable changes in its key supply partners and a robust, diversifying export performance. The period was also marked by specific shocks and evolving trade patterns, reflecting broader trends in global textile and apparel supply chains.
1. The Structural Pivot Toward Import Dependency
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU’s dependence on external suppliers for cotton knit trousers intensified markedly. This structural change is evident across several key indicators, painting a picture of a bloc that increasingly sources this category from non-EU producers while also growing its own export footprint.
- Soaring Net Import Reliance: The EU's net import reliance surged from 68.8% in 2015 to 93.8% by 2025, a 36.4% increase. This metric indicates that domestic EU production covered a diminishing share of total consumption, with the gap filled by imports.
- Rising Trade Intensity: The trade intensity also climbed from 93.7% to 114.3%, showing that trade (both imports and exports) grew faster than the EU's own production, underscoring the sector's deep integration into global markets.
- Eroding Domestic Production: While the value of EU production remained relatively stable (€204.5m to €200.0m), the volume in pieces fell by 35.4%, from 24.9 million to 16.1 million. This suggests production may have shifted towards higher-value items or that EU manufacturing capacity for this specific, high-volume category has contracted.
The following table summarizes the core import trends that underpin this structural shift:
| Indicator (Imports) | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value (EUR billion) | 1.41 | 1.84 | +30.7% |
| Volume (Thousand tonnes) | 100,394 | 139,982 | +39.4% |
| Supplementary Quantity (Million pcs) | 464 | 663 | +42.7% |
2. The Reconfiguration of Global Supply Chains
The growth in imports was not sourced evenly across the world. The period witnessed a clear reconfiguration of the EU’s supplier base, characterized by the ascent of Bangladesh, the decline of China, and the rapid rise of other Asian nations.
- Bangladesh Cementing Its Leadership: Bangladesh consolidated its position as the EU's preeminent supplier. Its share of EU import value grew from €449 million (2015) to €720 million (2025), a 60.5% increase, achieving a peak of €1.13 billion in 2021. This dominance is also reflected in its significant role in detected supply shocks.
- The Retreat of China: In stark contrast, China saw a substantial decline, with its export value to the EU falling by 34.2% to €184 million. This confirms a longer-term trend of diversification away from China for this product category within EU sourcing strategies.
- Rise of Alternative Asian Suppliers: Several other nations significantly increased their market share. Pakistan (+263.4%), Cambodia (+43.1%), and India (+10.6%) all recorded strong growth, indicating a broader geographical spread of sourcing across Southern and Southeast Asia.
| Top 5 EU Import Partners (by Value) | 2015 (EUR M) | 2025 (EUR M) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh | 448.8 | 720.3 | +60.5% |
| China | 279.5 | 183.9 | -34.2% |
| India | 156.5 | 173.1 | +10.6% |
| Cambodia | 131.4 | 188.0 | +43.1% |
| Pakistan | 49.1 | 178.3 | +263.4% |
3. Resilience and Diversification on the Export Side
While being a major net importer, the EU also maintained and developed a significant export trade in this category. EU exports demonstrated strong value growth and a noteworthy diversification of destination markets.
- Robust Export Growth: EU export value nearly doubled, rising by 93.1% from €165.5 million to €319.6 million. The volume of exports also grew by 59.9%, indicating a solid expansion in both scale and value.
- Geographical Diversification: The export portfolio became more geographically diversified. While the United Kingdom remained a key market (though with a volatile 26.9% decline), exports to Switzerland (+383%), Norway (+276%), and Türkiye (+187%) surged. Particularly notable is the rapid growth in exports to neighboring non-EU countries like Serbia (+521.9%) and Albania (+304.7%), suggesting strengthening regional trade links.
- Intra-EU Export Leaders: Germany and Italy were the bloc's powerhouse exporters, with Germany's exports growing by 135.9% and Italy's by 255.1%. Poland also emerged as a major exporter, with extraordinary growth of 1,557%, pointing to its evolving role in the European apparel value chain.
| Top 3 EU Export Destinations (by Value) | 2015 (EUR M) | 2025 (EUR M) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 53.9 | 39.4 | -26.9% |
| Switzerland | 22.8 | 110.1 | +383.0% |
| Russian Federation | 15.2 | 11.7 | -23.0% |
Conclusion
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU market for cotton knit trousers underwent a profound transformation. The bloc became more reliant than ever on imports, particularly from Bangladesh, while consciously reducing its dependence on China. This shift underscores a successful, if challenging, realignment of global apparel supply chains within the EU's sourcing strategy. Concurrently, the EU's own export sector showed remarkable dynamism, growing in value and diversifying its markets, with strong contributions from Germany, Italy, and a rising Poland. However, this deepened import reliance, coupled with the volatility detected in key supplier relationships like Bangladesh, highlights an ongoing vulnerability to external shocks. The period ultimately charts a journey toward greater global market integration for this product category, with the EU acting as both a major consumer hub and a significant, specialized exporter.