Market evolution: Synthetic knit trousers (CN 610463) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of women's or girls' synthetic fibre trousers, breeches, and shorts (CN 610463) within the European Union from 2015 to 2025. Over this period, the EU market has been characterised by a significant expansion in import volumes, a widening trade deficit, and a growing reliance on a diversified set of Asian suppliers, all while domestic production has contracted. These trends reflect broader structural shifts in global apparel supply chains and have important implications for the EU's trade autonomy and vulnerability.

1. The Asian Import Surge: Volume Growth and Supply Chain Reconfiguration

The period from 2015 to 2025 witnessed a dramatic increase in the EU's imports of synthetic knit trousers, both in value and physical volume. This surge was predominantly sourced from a growing and diversifying base of Asian manufacturing hubs.

Import volumes more than doubled while unit prices softened

The EU's import of this product category underwent substantial quantitative growth. In terms of net mass, imports rose from 53,007 tonnes in 2015 to 130,411 tonnes in 2025, an increase of 146.0%. The growth in item count was similarly strong, from 214 million pieces to 440 million pieces (+105.2%) (General Overview). Despite this volume expansion, the average import price per tonne fell by 10.7% (from €17,291 to €15,436), suggesting increased cost competitiveness from suppliers or a shift towards lower-value product segments. The price per piece remained relatively stable, increasing only marginally by 5.9%.

Traditional suppliers consolidated while new centres emerged

China remained the dominant supplier, with import value growing from €366 million to €618 million (+68.8%). However, the most significant growth came from other Asian nations:

(Top partners by value)

The concentration of imports among top suppliers (measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) decreased by 19.9%, indicating a diversification away from historical dependence, albeit within a geographically concentrated Asian region.

2. The Widening Trade Deficit and Domestic Production Retreat

The EU's trade balance for CN 610463 deteriorated markedly over the decade, driven by faster import growth relative to exports and a decline in domestic production.

The trade deficit more than doubled in value

The EU's trade deficit in this product widened from -€747 million in 2015 to -€1.67 billion in 2025, a 123.8% increase in the shortfall. While EU exports also grew in value (+101.4% to €341 million), this was vastly outpaced by the 119.7% rise in import values. Consequently, the EU's net import reliance as a percentage of apparent consumption climbed from 68.8% to 93.8%, underscoring a near-total dependence on external suppliers to meet domestic demand (Net import reliance).

EU export growth was geographically uneven

EU exports found strong growth in certain non-EU markets. Switzerland became a key destination, with export value surging from €19 million to €104 million (+445.7%). Exports to Türkiye (+290.2%), Norway (+314.3%), and the United States (+329.3%) also expanded significantly. However, exports to the United Kingdom, the single largest destination, declined by 26.5% in value, from €86 million to €63 million, potentially reflecting post-Brexit trade frictions (Top partners by value).

Domestic production contracted sharply

The EU's own production of these garments fell significantly. The quantity produced (in pieces) decreased by 35.4%, from 24.9 million items in 2015 to 16.1 million in 2025. Production value saw a more modest decline of 2.2%, suggesting a potential pivot towards higher-value production. Nevertheless, the drop in volume highlights the ongoing offshoring trend and the competitive pressure faced by EU manufacturers (Production volumes).

3. Increased Vulnerability and Shifting Intra-EU Dynamics

The structural changes in trade have led to increased vulnerability in the EU's supply chain, while the internal market saw shifts in the specialisation and role of different Member States.

Supply chain volatility concentrated in key partners

Analysis of trade volatility reveals that several major suppliers exhibit high coefficient of variation (CV) in trade flows, indicating potential supply risks. Notably, imports from Myanmar (CV: 0.66) and Pakistan (CV: 0.52) showed the highest volatility among top partners. For exports, flows to Serbia (CV: 0.68) and Ukraine (CV: 0.78) were most volatile, likely influenced by regional geopolitical factors (Volatility bars).

Specific shock events were detected, such as a major price shock in exports to Switzerland in 2017 (+64.4% price shift) and in imports from Bangladesh in 2022 (+21.4% price shift), which could reflect supply disruptions or cost pass-throughs (Supply shocks).

Intra-EU specialisation patterns solidified

Within the EU, certain Member States demonstrated a high revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in exporting this product category. Croatia (RCA: 3.74), Denmark (RCA: 1.92), and Slovenia (RCA: 1.71) were the most specialised producers in 2025. Conversely, larger economies like Germany, Spain, and Netherlands remained the largest importers by value, reinforcing their role as major consumption markets. Notably, Spain also appeared among the most specialised exporters, indicating a dual role in both consuming and producing for export (Specialisation).

Export propensity surged, masking underlying import dependence

A key vulnerability metric, export propensity (exports as a share of production), increased by an extraordinary 415.3%, from 75.2% to 387.4%. This indicates that the EU is now exporting a volume of this product far exceeding its domestic production, implying heavy use of imported fabrics or finished garments for re-export. While this suggests a dynamic role in intra-EU or global logistics, it deepens the link between the EU's trade performance and its reliance on external inputs (Export propensity).

Conclusion

The EU market for synthetic knit women's trousers (CN 610463) between 2015 and 2025 has undergone a profound transformation. It has become overwhelmingly dependent on imports, primarily from an expanding and diversifying set of Asian producers, to meet domestic demand. This structural shift has led to a ballooning trade deficit, a steep decline in local production volumes, and increased exposure to external supply chain volatility. While EU exports have grown, particularly to neighbouring markets, they have not kept pace with import surges. The net effect is a market that is deeply integrated into global value chains but faces significant vulnerability to disruptions in its key sourcing regions. The data points to a sector where EU competitiveness in final manufacturing has waned, while its role in high-value niches and as a logistical hub may be evolving.