Market evolution: Wire rod (CN 721391) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in wire rod under Combined Nomenclature code 721391 — hot-rolled bars and rods in irregularly wound coils of iron or non-alloy steel, with a circular cross-section below 14 mm in diameter. The product covers a range of sub-segments from concrete reinforcement rod to tyre cord and various carbon-content grades. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU wire rod market underwent a profound structural transformation: exports collapsed while imports proved resilient, unit prices surged and then partially corrected, and the geographic profile of trade partners shifted markedly. The analysis draws on trade overview data and related dashboards to identify the main dynamics at play.

1. From quasi-balance to deep import dependence

1.1 Export volumes fell by more than three quarters

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic erosion of EU wire rod exports. Export volumes declined from 1,085,918 tonnes in 2015 to just 241,893 tonnes in 2025, a drop of 77.7%. Export value fell from €473 million to €159 million (−66.4%). Despite a 50.7% increase in average export unit prices over the same period, the sheer collapse in tonnage overwhelmed any revenue uplift from higher prices.

1.2 Import volumes held steady despite price pressure

By contrast, EU imports remained in a broad range between 1.53 million and 2.36 million tonnes throughout the period. Import value rose from €671 million to €937 million (+39.6%), driven entirely by higher unit prices (from €420/t to €553/t). The peak import year by value was 2022, when a combination of elevated global steel prices and post-pandemic restocking pushed imports to €1.76 billion.

1.3 The trade deficit widened nearly fourfold

The combination of collapsing exports and resilient imports produced a sharp deterioration in the trade balance. In value terms, the deficit moved from −€198 million in 2015 to −€778 million in 2025 (−292.4%). Net import reliance rose from 7.3% to 12.9%, after briefly turning negative (i.e., net exporter status) in 2018 when exports temporarily exceeded their trend. The EU thus shifted from a roughly balanced position to a structurally import-dependent one.

2. The 2022 price shock and its uneven aftermath

2.1 A sharp, synchronised price spike in 2021–2022

Unit prices for both imports and exports surged dramatically in 2021 and peaked in 2022. Import prices reached a maximum of €817/t and export prices climbed to €974/t — roughly double the levels seen in 2015–2016. This spike reflected the post-COVID demand recovery, the 2021 global energy crisis, and the disruption of raw material and logistics chains following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

2.2 Price correction was incomplete and asymmetric

From 2023 onward, prices retraced significantly but did not return to pre-shock levels. By 2025, import prices were still 32% above their 2015 value, and export prices remained 51% higher. Notably, export prices remained consistently above import prices throughout the period, reflecting the EU's orientation toward higher-value, more specialised wire rod grades. The persistence of elevated prices suggests that some structural cost pressures — energy, carbon costs, raw material sourcing — have become embedded.

2.3 Detectable shock events at the partner level

The volatility and shock analysis identifies three major abnormal price events:

• Algeria (exports, 2021): An abnormality score of 13.8 with a +118.7% price shift, capturing the sudden repricing of EU export shipments to Algeria during the global steel price surge.
• Switzerland (exports, 2021): Abnormality of 10.4, price shift +52.6%, reflecting the transmission of EU-origin cost pressures to Swiss buyers.
• Malaysia (imports, 2022): Abnormality of 7.6, price shift +67.3%, highlighting the volatility of Asian-sourced wire rod entering the EU market.

These events underscore that the 2021–2022 price environment was not merely a gradual trend but included sharp, partner-specific disruptions.

3. Shifting geographies of supply and demand

3.1 Import partners: Eastern Europe and Türkiye in flux

The top import partners reveal significant repositioning:

Türkiye more than doubled its share, becoming the single largest import source by 2025, while the United Kingdom (post-Brexit) saw a modest decline. Russian Federation and Belarus grew significantly as suppliers, though this must be read in the context of evolving EU sanctions regimes. The volatility of these flows is notable: Türkiye's import coefficient of variation stood at 0.72, and Malaysia's at 1.04 — the highest among top partners — indicating highly erratic supply patterns from Asian sources.

3.2 Export destinations: collapse of North African and Mediterranean flows

The export partner picture is one of steep declines:

Algeria — once the EU's largest export market for wire rod, absorbing €195 million in 2015 — collapsed to just €3.4 million by 2025. Morocco and Türkiye followed a similar trajectory. This likely reflects increased domestic capacity in those countries and the redirection of global supply chains. Switzerland is a rare bright spot, with exports more than doubling, reflecting stable demand from a geographically proximate, high-specification market.

3.3 Production decline reshaped the internal supply base

EU production volumes fell from 11.6 million tonnes in 2015 to 8.7 million tonnes in 2025 (−24.7%), while production value rose by 50.4% (from €3.4 billion to €5.1 billion) on the back of higher prices. Among EU Member States, export specialisation was concentrated in:

• Portugal (RSCA: 0.55) and Greece (RSCA: 0.44), smaller producers with high relative specialisation
• Czechia (RSCA: 0.42), Italy (RSCA: 0.29), and Germany (RSCA: 0.22), the largest absolute exporters

Meanwhile, Nordic and Baltic countries (Croatia, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Latvia) showed near-zero or negative specialisation, confirming that wire rod production and export is a geographically concentrated activity within the EU. At the EU Member State level, Italy, Spain, and Portugal saw the steepest export declines (−86.4%, −93.9%, and −91.8% respectively), while Germany was the most resilient major exporter (+6.2%).

Conclusion

The EU wire rod market (CN 721391) has undergone a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most consequential shift is the collapse of EU exports — down 77.7% in volume — which converted the EU from a roughly balanced trader into a net importer with a €778 million trade deficit and a net import reliance of 12.9%. This occurred against a backdrop of declining domestic production (−24.7% in tonnage), the 2021–2022 global steel price shock, and geopolitical disruptions affecting traditional Eastern European and North African trade routes. Import prices remain 32% above their 2015 level, and export prices 51% higher, indicating that the post-shock cost environment has not fully normalised. The geographic profile of trade has also shifted: Türkiye has become the EU's leading import source, while Algeria, Morocco, and other Mediterranean partners have virtually disappeared from the export map. The EU's export propensity fell from 8.1% to 6.2%, confirming a reduced outward orientation for this product. Going forward, the combination of structural import dependence, concentrated and sometimes volatile supply sources, and elevated unit costs poses important questions for the resilience and competitiveness of the EU steel wire rod value chain.