Market evolution: Tire cord wire rod (CN 72139120) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in tire cord wire rod (customs code 72139120) over the 2015–2025 period. This product — hot-rolled bars and rods of iron or non-alloy steel used for tyre cord, in irregularly wound coils — is a specialised niche within the broader steel wire rod category. It serves the automotive tyre industry, where consistent quality and tensile properties are critical. Over the decade under review, the EU market for this product underwent significant structural transformation: domestic production volumes halved, the trade balance flipped from surplus to deficit, and traditional trade partnerships were substantially reshaped. At the same time, unit prices rose sharply, driven by global steel market dynamics. The following sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

1. A shrinking production base and a reversal in trade balance

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic contraction of EU production of tire cord wire rod, which has had cascading effects on trade flows and the overall balance of this market.

EU production volumes fell by more than half

According to PRODCOM production data, EU production of tire cord wire rod (PRODCOM 24.10.61.40) declined from 400,000 tonnes in 2015 to 180,000 tonnes in the most recent year — a drop of 55%. This contraction was not linear: production hit a low of just 39,160 tonnes at one point during the period, representing a loss of over 90% from peak levels before a partial recovery. In value terms, production moved from €120 million to €150 million (+25%), reflecting the sharp rise in steel prices rather than any increase in physical output.

The EU shifted from net exporter to net importer

The contraction of the domestic production base directly altered the trade balance. In 2015, the EU held a modest trade surplus of €2.3 million in this product. By the most recent year, this had reversed into a deficit of €3.4 million — a swing of nearly €5.7 million. The net import reliance indicator confirms this structural shift: it moved from −16.4% (indicating a net exporter position) to −9.4% in the latest year, and even briefly crossed into positive territory during the period, reaching a maximum of +12.3% (net import reliance).

Export volumes declined faster than import volumes

Both exports and imports contracted in physical terms, but exports fell more sharply. Export volumes dropped by 38.0% (from 43,457 tonnes to 26,929 tonnes), while import volumes fell by 21.7% (from 46,646 tonnes to 36,541 tonnes). Export values declined by 18.5% to €22.7 million, whereas import values held roughly steady at €26.1 million (+2.1%). The asymmetry between these declines — with imports proving more resilient — is consistent with a declining domestic production capacity being progressively replaced by foreign supply.

Rising unit prices masked the volume decline

Across both flows, unit prices rose substantially over the period, partially obscuring the physical contraction:

EU export prices have consistently exceeded import prices — by roughly €100–130 per tonne — which reflects the higher quality positioning of EU-made tire cord rod. However, the price differential has not narrowed, suggesting that the EU retains a quality premium even as its market share erodes.

2. A structural reorientation of trade partnerships

The decline in aggregate volumes was accompanied by a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's key trading partners. Traditional relationships weakened, while new suppliers and new export destinations gained prominence.

The United Kingdom's role as an import source collapsed

In 2015, the UK was the EU's largest source of imports at €17.0 million, accounting for a dominant share of the market. By the most recent year, UK imports had fallen to just €5.3 million — a decline of 68.8%. This contraction is consistent with the trade disruption associated with Brexit, which introduced new customs formalations, rules of origin requirements, and regulatory divergence for UK-EU steel trade. The UK's share of EU imports was effectively absorbed by other suppliers.

South Korea emerged as the dominant import supplier

South Korea filled much of the space vacated by the UK. Korean imports rose from €8.5 million to €15.6 million (+84.3%), making South Korea the EU's largest import partner by value in the most recent year. Korean suppliers are well-established in the global tire cord wire rod market, with major producers such as POSCO and KISCO holding significant technological and scale advantages.

Emerging suppliers gained ground

Several smaller suppliers saw rapid growth from low bases:

Türkiye's surge is particularly notable: its import share grew over thirteen-fold, consistent with the broader expansion of the Turkish steel industry and its increasing penetration of EU markets. Moldova, while smaller in absolute terms, has also become a meaningful supplier, likely benefiting from geographical proximity and cost competitiveness.

On the export side, Canada declined while Türkiye and Brazil grew

Canada remained the EU's single largest export destination, but its share contracted: exports fell from €14.1 million to €9.6 million (−32.0%). Meanwhile, exports to Türkiye grew from €2.7 million to €6.9 million (+154.5%), and exports to Brazil rose from €2.6 million to €4.6 million (+77.3%). Exports to the United States held relatively steady at around €6 million.

Import source concentration declined

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports fell from 5,532 to 4,211 (−23.9%), indicating that the EU's import base has become more diversified over the decade. While still concentrated by general standards (values above 2,500 indicate moderate concentration), the declining HHI reflects the shift away from UK dominance toward a more balanced supplier portfolio including Korea, Moldova, and Türkiye. Export concentration remained broadly stable (HHI around 3,100–3,200), suggesting that the EU's export market structure has been less affected by the structural shifts.

3. Shifting production geography within the EU and price shocks

Beyond aggregate trade dynamics, the period saw significant redistribution of production and trade activity within the EU, as well as notable external price shocks.

Germany consolidated its position as the EU's production hub

Among EU member states, Germany stands out as the dominant producer, accounting for 56.2% of EU production and holding a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.45. Germany was also the largest EU exporter by value, with export values actually increasing by 24.6% (from €18.1 million to €22.6 million) — even as overall EU exports declined. Slovenia (RSCA 0.88) and Portugal (RSCA 0.81) emerged as highly specialised producers, though at smaller absolute scales.

Several traditional producing countries withdrew from the market

The data reveals a stark polarisation within the EU. Spain's exports collapsed from €9.7 million to just €88,000 (−99.1%), and Belgium's fell to virtually zero. On the import side, Romania saw imports fall from €7.8 million to €1.1 million (−85.5%), Italy from €9.3 million to €1.3 million (−86.5%), and Hungary from €4.6 million to €0.8 million (−83.3%). These declines suggest that several EU member states have exited tire cord wire rod production or substantially reduced their activity, concentrating production in fewer, more competitive locations.

Slovenia and the Czech Republic emerged as new hubs

In contrast to the declining producers, Slovenia's imports surged from €3.5 million to €15.2 million (+341.6%), making it the EU's largest importing member state. The Czech Republic saw an even more dramatic increase, with imports jumping from €12,000 to €3.6 million. These figures likely reflect the growth of tire cord wire rod processing and downstream manufacturing (particularly tyre production) in Central and Eastern Europe, where cost advantages and proximity to automotive OEMs have driven investment.

Global steel price spikes in 2022 caused major supply shocks

The volatility analysis identifies three major price shock events:

The 2022 shocks — affecting both Korean imports and Canadian exports — are consistent with the global steel price surge that followed the post-COVID recovery and the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. EU steel producers faced sharply higher energy and raw material costs, which were passed through to prices. The 2018 Türkiye shock appears more idiosyncratic and may reflect specific bilateral market dynamics or currency effects.

Price volatility varied significantly across partners

The coefficient of variation in import prices ranged from 0.41 for South Korea (the most stable major supplier) to over 2.0 for Switzerland and the United States (both very small volumes). For exports, Canada showed the lowest volatility (0.22), reflecting a long-standing, stable commercial relationship, while exports to the Russian Federation and China were far more volatile. The lower volatility of Korean import prices suggests a well-established, commercial-grade supply relationship, whereas newer or smaller partners show more erratic pricing patterns.

Conclusion

The EU market for tire cord wire rod (CN 72139120) has undergone a fundamental transformation over the 2015–2025 decade. Domestic production volumes declined by more than half, driven by the rationalisation and geographical consolidation of EU steelmaking capacity. This contraction directly contributed to the EU's shift from a net exporter to a net importer position, with the trade balance swinging from a €2.3 million surplus to a €3.4 million deficit.

The sourcing landscape was reshaped by two major forces: the disruption of UK-EU trade following Brexit, which removed the largest historical import partner, and the rise of South Korea, Türkiye, and Moldova as alternative suppliers. Within the EU, production and trade activity concentrated in Germany and Central European states (Slovenia, Czechia), while traditional producers in Southern and Western Europe (Spain, Belgium, Italy) largely exited the market.

Global price shocks — particularly the 2022 steel market surge — added a layer of volatility that affected both import and export prices, though EU producers maintained a consistent quality premium of roughly €100–130 per tonne over import prices. Looking forward, the structural decline in EU production capacity, combined with growing import dependence on a small number of non-EU suppliers, raises questions about supply chain resilience in this strategically important automotive input.