Market evolution: Wire rod coils (CN 72139170) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's trade dynamics for CN 72139170 — hot-rolled wire rod coils in irregularly wound coils of iron or non-alloy steel with a carbon content between 0.25% and 0.75% and a circular cross-section under 14 mm in diameter. This product, classified under iron and steel, serves as an intermediate input for downstream manufacturing, including fasteners, springs, and wire drawing.

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's position in this market has undergone a structural transformation. Exports have collapsed — falling by 78% in volume and 65% in value — while imports have remained broadly stable in volume terms, though rising in value. The resulting shift has moved the EU from a near-balanced trade position to a pronounced net import deficit. These changes reflect a combination of domestic production decline, shifting competitive advantages across EU Member States, significant price shocks during 2021–2022, and a marked reorientation of trade flows away from traditional partners such as Türkiye and towards new geographies.

1. The Collapse of EU Exports and the Reorientation of Outward Trade

Export volumes fell by nearly four-fifths over the decade

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic contraction in EU exports of wire rod coils. According to the general trade overview, export volumes declined from 109,871 tonnes in 2015 to just 24,179 tonnes in 2025 — a fall of 78.0%. Export values declined correspondingly from €51.5 million to €18.1 million (–64.9%). Prices rose from €469/tonne to €748/tonne (+59.6%), but this was nowhere near sufficient to offset the volume collapse.

The Turkish market virtually disappeared

The single most dramatic shift in the EU's export geography was the near-total collapse of trade with Türkiye. In 2015, Türkiye was the EU's largest export destination for this product, absorbing €28.5 million in value. By 2025, that figure had fallen to just €111,000 — a decline of 99.6%. This collapse is consistent with Türkiye's substantial investment in its own steelmaking capacity during the 2010s, which progressively reduced its dependence on European supply. Other formerly important markets showed similarly steep declines: exports to Thailand fell to zero (from €3.7 million in 2015, a –100.0% change), and exports to Brazil dropped by 72.9%.

New export markets emerged, but at smaller scale

While some destinations grew rapidly — exports to the United States rose from €6,000 to €199,000 (+3,220%) and those to Serbia grew from €383,000 to €2.2 million (+470%) — these gains remained modest in absolute terms. The top export partners data shows that by 2025, the United Kingdom (€6.3 million) and Canada (€6.3 million) had become the largest remaining export markets, but neither compensated for the loss of the Turkish market.

EU Member States' export roles shifted internally

The Member State breakdown reveals that the export contraction was not evenly distributed. Spain, once the largest exporter (€27.9 million in 2015), saw its exports collapse to just €1.1 million in 2025 (–96.2%). Germany's exports fell from €16.1 million to €9.2 million (–43.0%). In contrast, Slovenia grew from €379,000 to €3.9 million (+941%) and Italy expanded from €96,000 to €2.3 million (+2,267%). These shifts suggest a reallocation of export capacity among EU producers, possibly reflecting differences in cost competitiveness and product specialisation.

2. Rising Import Dependency and the Dominance of the United Kingdom

The EU shifted from near-balance to structural import dependence

The EU's trade balance in wire rod coils deteriorated sharply over the decade. In 2015, the deficit stood at a marginal –€2.5 million. By 2025, it had widened to –€43.2 million, representing a deterioration of 1,633.7%. The net import reliance ratio confirms this structural shift, rising from 6.0% in 2015 to 15.7% in 2025 (+163.6%), meaning that an increasing share of domestic consumption is now met by imports.

Import volumes declined only modestly — from 105,034 tonnes to 97,656 tonnes (–7.0%) — while import values actually increased from €54.0 million to €61.3 million (+13.5%). This divergence reflects higher unit prices, with the average import price rising from €514/tonne to €627/tonne (+22.0%).

The United Kingdom became the overwhelmingly dominant supplier

The top import partners data shows that the United Kingdom consolidated its position as the EU's primary external supplier. UK-origin imports accounted for €44.9 million in 2025, representing 73% of all extra-EU import value — a dominant share that remained broadly stable from 2015 (€45.5 million). This reflects the UK's established steelmaking infrastructure, geographic proximity, and the continuity of trade flows following Brexit.

Other notable suppliers include Moldova (€4.9 million, up from €1.5 million in 2015, a +227.5% increase), Ukraine (€4.7 million, up 88.4%), and Belarus (€1.8 million, up from just €14,000 in 2015). These Central and Eastern European and post-Soviet suppliers have gained market share over the decade.

Import concentration decreased, signalling diversification

Despite the UK's dominance, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports declined from 7,134 to 5,513 (–22.7%). This indicates that while the UK remained dominant, the overall import base became somewhat more diversified, with growing contributions from Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, and Türkiye. The growing role of these suppliers introduces new geopolitical risk dimensions, particularly given the instability in Eastern Europe.

3. Production Decline, Shifting Competitiveness, and Price Shocks

EU domestic production volumes declined substantially

According to production volume data, EU production of wire rod coils fell from 8.62 billion kg in 2015 to 6.30 billion kg in 2025 — a decline of 26.9%. Yet production values rose from €2.56 billion to €3.60 billion (+40.8%), reflecting the broader global increase in steel prices. This divergence between volume and value suggests that while the EU is producing less steel, it is capturing higher unit revenues — consistent with a shift towards higher-value-added products or simply reflecting inflationary pressures in raw material and energy costs.

Czechia and Poland emerged as the most specialised producers

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that Czechia (RSCA: 0.75, RCA: 7.08) and Poland (RSCA: 0.40, RCA: 2.36) are the most specialised EU producers in this product category. Czechia's production accounts for 34.0% of its total iron and steel output, compared to the EU average of 4.8%. Germany remains the largest absolute producer (22.8% of EU production), but its comparative advantage is minimal (RCA: 1.08). Spain, once a major exporter, shows negative specialisation (RSCA: –0.17), consistent with its export decline.

Significant price shocks were detected in 2021–2022

The volatility and shock analysis identifies three major price shock events:

These shocks coincide with the global steel price surge of 2021–2022, driven by post-pandemic demand recovery, energy cost inflation, and supply chain disruptions. The export propensity declined from 8.7% to 6.4% (–25.7%), indicating that the EU became less outward-oriented for this product. Meanwhile, trade intensity rose slightly from 20.6% to 25.2% (+22.5%), reflecting the growing role of imports in the EU market.

Import volatility varied significantly by source country

The coefficient of variation for import flows shows high instability for several suppliers: Belarus (CV: 1.01), the Russian Federation (CV: 1.10), and Türkiye (CV: 0.94) all exhibited extreme volatility, reflecting the impact of geopolitical sanctions, trade policy shifts, and conflict. The UK, by contrast, showed relatively low volatility (CV: 0.23), underscoring its role as a stable and reliable supplier. On the export side, flows to the United States (CV: 1.26), Colombia (CV: 1.45), and Tunisia (CV: 1.07) were highly volatile, suggesting opportunistic or episodic trade rather than stable commercial relationships.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in wire rod coils (CN 72139170) underwent a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most defining trend was the collapse of EU exports — down 78% in volume — driven primarily by the loss of the Turkish market and the declining competitiveness of major EU producers such as Spain. Simultaneously, imports remained relatively resilient, cementing the EU's transition from a near-balanced trader to a net importer with a 15.7% import reliance ratio. The United Kingdom emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant external supplier, accounting for nearly three-quarters of import value, while newer sources in Eastern Europe (Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus) grew in importance, introducing new geopolitical risks. The 2021–2022 period was marked by severe price shocks that reflected global steel market turbulence. Looking ahead, the combination of declining domestic production volumes, reduced export capacity, and growing dependence on a limited number of external suppliers — some of which are located in geopolitically sensitive regions — presents challenges for the EU's supply security in this strategically important intermediate steel product.