Market evolution: High carbon steel wire rod (CN 72139190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in high carbon hot-rolled steel wire rod (CN 72139190) over the 2015–2025 period. This product—bars and rods in irregularly wound coils with a carbon content exceeding 0.75% and a circular cross-section below 14 mm in diameter—serves as a critical input for the fastener, spring, and wire-drawing industries. The period under review has been marked by profound structural shifts in the EU's trade posture, changing partner dynamics, and significant price volatility linked to global supply chain disruptions. Full product overview

1. From Net Exporter to Net Importer: The EU's Structural Trade Reversal

The most striking development over the 2015–2025 period is the EU's transformation from a net exporter to a net importer of high carbon steel wire rod. This reversal was driven by a catastrophic decline in exports that far outstripped the parallel reduction in imports.

1.1. Exports collapsed by nearly 90% in value and over 93% in volume

EU exports of CN 72139190 fell from €71.9 million and 161,243 tonnes in 2015 to just €8.0 million and 10,608 tonnes in 2025. This represents a decline of 88.9% in value and 93.4% in quantity. The drop was not a sudden shock but rather a progressive erosion that accelerated in the latter part of the period. The trade overview confirms that the export maximum was recorded in the first year of the series (2015), and the minimum in the last year (2025), indicating a persistent downward trajectory without meaningful recovery.

1.2. Imports declined more moderately, sustaining a structural deficit

Imports fell by 19.0% in value (from €49.0 million to €39.7 million) and by 38.4% in volume (from 98,809 tonnes to 60,914 tonnes). While this represents a notable contraction, it is far less dramatic than the export decline. The result is a decisive swing in the trade balance: from a surplus of approximately €22.9 million in 2015 to a deficit of €31.7 million in 2025—a shift of 238.2%. The EU's net import reliance rose from 6.0% to 15.7% over the period.

1.3. Unit prices rose on both sides, reflecting cost pressures

Export unit prices increased from €446/tonne to €751/tonne (+68.3%), while import prices rose from €495/tonne to €651/tonne (+31.5%). The convergence of these prices—indeed, export prices now exceed import prices—suggests that the remaining EU exports are of higher value-added segments, but the broader trend of rising costs has affected both flows.

Source: Trade overview

2. The Reconfiguration of EU Trade Partners

Behind the headline aggregates lies a dramatic reshuffling of both import and export partners. Traditional relationships weakened or collapsed, while new suppliers and destination markets emerged—albeit in the context of a shrinking total trade volume.

2.1. Import sources: UK consolidation, Brazilian collapse, and the rise of Asian suppliers

The United Kingdom has become the overwhelmingly dominant import source, growing from €26.7 million (2015) to €34.7 million (2025), a 29.7% increase. This trend likely reflects both the post-Brexit trade reconfiguration (where intra-EU flows became third-country trade counted in customs statistics) and the UK's continued role as a proximate supplier.

Brazil, previously the second-largest import source at €14.8 million in 2015, collapsed to just €329 in 2025—a virtual disappearance (-100%). This may reflect shifts in Brazilian export strategies, EU trade defence measures, or competitive displacement.

By contrast, Türkiye (from €100K to €865K, +770.7%) and South Korea (from €118K to €793K, +569.1%) grew dramatically, though from very low bases. Vietnam and Malaysia appeared as notable suppliers at various points, with Vietnam recording €16.4 million in a single year and Malaysia growing from €8.0 million to €9.9 million.

The import concentration HHI confirms this consolidation: it rose from 3,962 to 7,655 (+93.2%), indicating that import sources became significantly more concentrated over the period.

2.2. Export destinations: loss of Turkish market and geographic diversification toward North Africa

The most dramatic export collapse was to Türkiye—from €41.3 million in 2015 to just €146K in 2025 (-99.6%). Türkiye was by far the largest single destination in 2015, and its near-total loss accounts for a large share of the overall export decline. This may be linked to the development of Turkish domestic capacity or trade policy changes.

Exports to the United States fell by 44.4% (from €15.8 million to €8.8 million), while exports to the United Kingdom declined by 65.7% (from €13.4 million to €4.6 million).

In partial compensation, North African markets grew substantially:

Source: Export partners

Despite these gains, the absolute values remain modest relative to the losses in the Turkish and American markets. The export HHI remained relatively stable (4,130 to 4,015, –2.8%), reflecting the offsetting effects of losing a dominant destination while diversifying toward smaller ones.

2.3. EU Member State specialisation patterns reveal production geography

Specialisation analysis based on Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) for 2025 shows:

Czechia and Spain emerge as the EU's most specialised producers and exporters of this product, while large economies like Italy and France show negative specialisation, consistent with their import-heavy profiles.

3. Production Contraction, Price Shocks, and Growing Import Vulnerability

The EU's domestic production base for high carbon steel wire rod has weakened over the period, coinciding with significant supply-side price shocks and a growing structural dependency on imports.

3.1. EU production declined in volume while rising in value

According to PRODCOM production data, EU production fell from 8.62 billion kg in 2015 to 6.30 billion kg in 2025 (–26.9%), reaching a low of 5.76 billion kg at its trough. Over the same period, the value of production rose from €2.56 billion to €3.60 billion (+40.8%), with a peak of €5.39 billion. This divergence—a 27% volume decline alongside a 41% value increase—points to a significant increase in unit production costs and/or a shift toward higher-value product mixes, consistent with the broader trend of European steelmakers moving upstream toward specialty grades.

3.2. Supply-side price shocks hit key trade relationships

The volatility analysis and shock detection identify three major abnormal price events:

The 2020 Brazilian import price shock is particularly notable given the near-complete disappearance of Brazilian imports by 2025—suggesting that the EU may have been forced to seek alternative suppliers after pricing became unsustainable. The 2022 US export price shock may reflect the post-COVID and post-Ukraine energy crisis period, when global steel prices spiked sharply.

3.3. Export propensity fell while trade intensity rose, confirming import dependency

Two key vulnerability indicators moved in opposite directions:

Export propensity—the share of EU production that is exported—declined, confirming the loss of external market competitiveness. Trade intensity—the overall share of trade relative to production—rose, meaning the EU's wire rod market is more open to international flows than before. The net import reliance of 15.7% in 2025 underscores that the EU now depends on external suppliers for a meaningful share of its high carbon wire rod needs.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's position in high carbon steel wire rod (CN 72139190) has fundamentally shifted. Once a net exporter with a healthy trade surplus, the EU now runs a structural trade deficit of €31.7 million. This reversal was caused by a 93% collapse in export volumes—driven primarily by the near-total loss of the Turkish market and declining competitiveness vis-à-vis US and UK destinations—combined with a more moderate 38% decline in import volumes.

The import market has consolidated around the United Kingdom, which now accounts for the dominant share of EU imports, while the supplier base has become significantly more concentrated (HHI nearly doubling). Domestic production has contracted by 27% in volume, though rising prices have partially masked the decline in value terms. Three significant price shocks—involving Brazil (2020), Türkiye (2021), and the United States (2022)—highlight the market's exposure to supply-side volatility.

Looking ahead, the EU's growing import reliance (now at 15.7%) and declining export propensity (6.4%) suggest that the bloc's strategic autonomy in this segment is diminishing. Policymakers and industry stakeholders may wish to monitor these trends closely, particularly in the context of ongoing trade defence instrument reviews and the EU's broader industrial competitiveness agenda.