Market evolution: Rebar coils (CN 721310) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in CN 721310 — hot-rolled bars and rods in irregularly wound coils of iron or non-alloy steel with deformations produced during rolling, commonly known as rebar coils. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for this product has undergone a structural transformation: the Union has shifted from a comfortable trade surplus to a deficit, import volumes have nearly tripled, and the geography of suppliers has been redrawn. At the same time, export prices have risen substantially, reflecting broader inflationary pressures and supply shocks in global steel markets. The full overview dashboard provides the underlying data for the analysis below.

1. From Surplus to Deficit: The EU's Rebalancing Trade Position

1.1 Import growth vastly outpaces export growth

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the asymmetric growth between EU imports and exports of rebar coils.

Source: General Overview – trade figures

While export values grew by 40.9%, this was entirely driven by higher prices (+43.2%), as volumes were essentially flat (−1.6%). By contrast, imports surged in both volume (+170.8%) and value (+262.7%). The EU's export quantity peaked at 852,590 tonnes at some point during the decade but ended at only 504,183 tonnes in 2025 — suggesting a loss of competitive capacity or a strategic reorientation of EU producers.

1.2 The trade balance reversed from surplus to deficit

In 2015, the EU posted a trade surplus of €120.9 million in rebar coils. By 2025, this had turned into a deficit of €45.9 million — a swing of nearly €167 million. Net import reliance moved from −3.5% (net exporter) to −8.1%, with the lowest point reaching −38.4% during an intermediate year — a period when the EU was heavily dependent on foreign supply.

1.3 Price dynamics amplified the value shift

Both export and import unit prices rose over the decade, but the export price increase (+43.2%) slightly exceeded the import price increase (+33.9%). Yet this price advantage was not enough to offset the volume imbalance. The 2021 global steel price spike — linked to post-pandemic demand recovery and raw-material constraints — pushed unit prices to their highs: exports reached €909/t and imports hit €871/t at their peak.

2. A Shifting Geography of Supply and Demand

2.1 Türkiye became the dominant import supplier

The partner data reveals a dramatic reconfiguration of the EU's import sources:

Türkiye surged from €16.4 million to €153.2 million, making it by far the largest single supplier in 2025. This is consistent with Türkiye's well-documented role as a major global exporter of long steel products, benefiting from cost-competitive production and geographical proximity to EU markets. Ukraine and Moldova also saw extraordinary growth, though from much lower bases — a pattern likely linked to EU trade facilitation measures and, in Ukraine's case, temporary trade liberalisation arrangements. Conversely, Belarus saw imports decline by 63.4%, consistent with the tightening of EU sanctions and trade restrictions.

2.2 Export destinations shifted toward the UK and Southern Europe

On the export side, Switzerland remained the top destination, with exports rising from €124.9 million to €181.1 million (+45.0%). The United Kingdom grew significantly (+158.1%), likely reflecting post-Brexit trade adjustments and the UK's continued need for EU-sourced rebar. Australia appeared as a growing market (+867.8%), while exports to Israel collapsed by 79.8%.

2.3 Romanian imports exploded; French exports surged

The reporter-level data highlights significant intra-EU variation:

Romania became the EU's largest importer of rebar coils by value in 2025 (€197.7 million), absorbing over half of all EU imports. This may reflect booming construction activity and infrastructure investment in Romania, particularly EU-funded projects. On the export side, France emerged as a major exporter (€109.1 million), a remarkable leap from just €0.5 million in 2015, while Spain's exports fell sharply (−75.4%).

3. Market Concentration, Specialisation, and Supply-Side Vulnerabilities

3.1 EU imports became more concentrated; exports slightly less so

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,190 to 2,512 (+14.7%), indicating that the EU's import supply base became more concentrated. By volume, the increase was even sharper (+25.5%). This concentration is driven largely by the dominance of Türkiye. On the export side, the HHI remained relatively stable (a modest −2.5% decline), suggesting a more diversified — but still moderately concentrated — export structure.

3.2 Greece and Portugal are the EU's most specialised exporters

Using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indicator for 2025, the specialisation analysis shows:

Greece and Portugal display very high specialisation in rebar coils, while Germany, despite accounting for the largest share of EU production (28.3%), has only a moderate comparative advantage — reflecting its highly diversified industrial base. Countries like Latvia, Sweden, Slovakia, Denmark, and the Netherlands have negligible specialisation (RSCA near −1.0).

3.3 Production volumes held steady, but value grew

EU production volumes in rebar coils barely changed (−1.7%, from 2.32 billion kg to 2.28 billion kg), yet production value rose by 39.6% (from €681 million to €951 million). This confirms that price increases — rather than volume growth — drove the rise in nominal output. The production volume range over the decade was wide, from a trough of 1.18 billion kg to a peak of 4.00 billion kg, indicating significant cyclical sensitivity.

3.4 The 2021 price shock was the decade's defining event

The shock detection identifies three major price anomalies, all centred on 2021:

These shocks align with the 2021 global steel price crisis, driven by post-COVID demand surges, energy cost inflation, and supply-chain disruptions. The coefficient of variation (CV) data further highlights that imports from Ukraine (CV 1.20), Serbia (CV 1.38), and Türkiye (CV 1.03) are the most volatile — suggesting that while these suppliers have grown rapidly, they carry significant supply risk.

3.5 Trade openness surged, raising both opportunity and exposure

The Autonomy & Vulnerability indicators show a dramatic opening of the EU rebar coil market:

Trade intensity more than tripled, meaning that a far larger share of the EU market is now mediated through international trade. Export propensity — the ratio of exports to domestic production — nearly quadrupled. While this reflects economic efficiency and global integration, it also implies greater exposure to external supply disruptions, tariff changes, and geopolitical risks.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's rebar coil market (CN 721310) underwent a fundamental shift. The Union moved from a net exporter with a €121 million surplus to a net importer with a €46 million deficit, driven primarily by a 171% surge in import volumes. Türkiye emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, accounting for a growing share of imports and contributing to a more concentrated — and therefore more vulnerable — supply base. The 2021 steel price shock left a lasting imprint on trade values and exposed the volatility of key supply routes, particularly from Ukraine, Moldova, and the Balkans.

Within the EU, Romania became the single largest absorbing market for imports, while France transformed into a major exporter. Production volumes remained broadly stable, but the value of output rose sharply due to price inflation. The EU's trade openness indicators — trade intensity and export propensity — reached historic highs, signalling a market that is deeply integrated into global flows but also structurally more dependent on them.

Looking ahead, policymakers and market participants should monitor three risks: (1) the concentration of imports from Türkiye and a small number of neighbouring states; (2) the geopolitical sensitivity of supply chains passing through Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans; and (3) the cyclical vulnerability inherent in a market where production volumes have fluctuated by a factor of 3.4 over the decade. The EU's ability to maintain competitive domestic production while diversifying import sources will be critical to ensuring supply security in this strategically important construction-material segment.