Market evolution: Nonwovens and special yarns (CN 56) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Combined Nomenclature heading 56 covers wadding, felt, nonwovens, special yarns, twine, cordage, ropes, cables, and articles thereof. These products serve a wide range of downstream industries—from hygiene and medical disposables to construction, agriculture, and marine applications—making CN 56 a useful barometer of both industrial and consumer demand. Over the 2015–2025 period the EU has remained a net exporter in this category, yet its trade surplus narrowed by 32.8%, from €1.42 billion to €0.96 billion (General Overview). This report examines the main dynamics behind that shift, the central role of nonwovens within the product mix, and the geographical reconfiguration of the EU's trade relationships.

1. A growing import surge erodes the EU's trade surplus

1.1 Imports grew far faster than exports over the decade

Between 2015 and 2025, EU extra-EU imports of CN 56 products surged by 62.9% in value (from €1.67 billion to €2.72 billion) and by 67.2% in volume (from 380,548 t to 636,406 t). Over the same period, EU exports grew more modestly by 18.9% in value (from €3.09 billion to €3.68 billion) while their volume actually contracted by 11.9% (from 629,330 t to 554,611 t) (General Overview).

The result is a structural narrowing of the EU's surplus. Import volumes essentially doubled the growth rate of import values, reflecting an average import price that barely changed (−2.6%, from €4,389/t to €4,277/t). By contrast, export volumes declined even as export values rose, because EU export unit values climbed sharply by 34.9% (from €4,914/t to €6,631/t). The EU is thus shipping out fewer tonnes at higher prices while absorbing far more tonnes from abroad at flat prices—a classic sign of competitive pressure on the lower-value end of the market.

1.2 EU domestic production expanded strongly, yet import penetration deepened

EU production of CN 56 goods grew substantially over the period: output rose by 35.7% in weight (from 2.10 million t to 2.84 million t) and by 82.1% in value (from €5.68 billion to €10.34 billion). Despite this expansion, the EU's trade intensity (trade as a share of production) nearly doubled from 29.7% to 48.2%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 22.4% to 35.6%. The EU sector has become more export-oriented, but imports have grown even faster, indicating that rising domestic demand is increasingly met by foreign suppliers.

1.3 Import concentration is rising while export markets remain diversified

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose by 43.4%, from 1,188 to 1,703, while the import HHI by volume nearly doubled (+91.5%), from 1,352 to 2,589. This signals a growing dependency on a smaller set of supplying countries (Concentration). By contrast, the export HHI remained stable and low (around 667–695 by value), confirming that EU producers continue to serve a wide range of external markets. The net import reliance remained negative (i.e., the EU is still a net exporter), but it edged from −13.6% to −12.6%, with a trough of −25.5% recorded along the way—underscoring that the margin of self-sufficiency is thinning.

2. Nonwovens (CN 5603) dominate the product mix and drive the overall trend

2.1 Nonwovens account for roughly 60% of both imports and exports

The sub-heading CN 5603 (Nonwovens) is overwhelmingly the largest segment within CN 56. In 2025 it represented 60.2% of total CN 56 imports by value (€1.64 billion out of €2.72 billion) and 59.9% of exports (€2.20 billion out of €3.68 billion). The segment's import volume grew by 62.3% (from 239,000 t to 388,000 t) while its import value rose by 63.8%, implying broadly stable import prices (from €4,181/t to €4,222/t).

2.2 Felt and articles of yarn saw the fastest import growth

While nonwovens dominate in absolute terms, several smaller sub-headings grew even faster in percentage terms. Imports of CN 5609 (articles of yarn or twine) more than doubled in value (+159%, from €46 M to €119 M) and in volume (+119%, from 12,694 t to 27,850 t). Imports of CN 5602 (felt) also more than doubled in value (+107%, from €83 M to €171 M), driven by a 114% volume increase. These niche products, though smaller in absolute size, are gaining import penetration at a pace that outstrips even nonwovens.

2.3 Unit-value dynamics reveal diverging competitive positions

EU export unit values consistently exceed import unit values across almost every sub-heading, confirming the EU's position in higher-value-added segments. For nonwovens (CN 5603), the export price stood at €6,062/t in 2025 versus an import price of €4,222/t—a gap of 44%. For wadding (CN 5601), the spread was even wider: €9,454/t for exports versus €6,068/t for imports. These gaps widened over the period as EU export prices rose faster than import prices, suggesting that EU producers are increasingly specialising in premium, technical, or customised products while standard-grade production is shifting abroad.

3. Geographic realignment: China and Türkiye lead the import push, Russia fades from exports

3.1 China and Türkiye are the two fastest-growing import sources

EU imports from China grew by 145.1% (from €363 M to €890 M), making China by far the largest single supplier by 2025. Imports from Türkiye surged by 160.0% (from €184 M to €478 M), and from India by 121.2% (from €28 M to €63 M). Together, these three countries added roughly €856 million in import value over the decade.

By contrast, imports from the United Kingdom fell by 27.6% (from €233 M to €169 M), likely reflecting the combined effects of Brexit-related trade friction and supply-chain restructuring. Saudi Arabia also saw a steep decline (−62.4%), possibly linked to shifts in petrochemical-based synthetic fibre production.

3.2 Russia's collapse as an export destination stands out on the EU side

The most dramatic export-side change was the 61.7% decline in EU shipments to Russia, falling from €184 M to €70 M. This contraction, concentrated after 2022, is consistent with the sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Exports to the United States grew by 34.8% (from €452 M to €610 M), and to Morocco by 84.4% (from €76 M to €141 M), partially offsetting the Russian decline.

3.3 Export volatility is highest for politically sensitive and emerging markets

Volatility analysis confirms that the most unstable bilateral flows correlate with geopolitical disruption. EU exports to Russia had a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.34, the highest among major partners. Exports to Ukraine (CV = 0.28) and to Mexico (CV = 0.17) also showed elevated instability. On the import side, trade with Vietnam (CV = 0.53) and India (CV = 0.31) was most volatile. Notably, a price shock was detected for EU imports from India in 2022 (abnormality score 14.0, +14.3% price shift) and for EU exports to Ukraine in 2022 (abnormality 8.8, +16.8% price shift), both coinciding with the commodity-price surge triggered by the war in Ukraine.

3.4 Member-state specialisation reveals concentrated production in smaller EU economies

Looking at revealed specialisation, Luxembourg (RSCA = 0.77, RCA = 7.77), Greece (RSCA = 0.48), Slovenia (RSCA = 0.37), Lithuania (RSCA = 0.35), and Portugal (RSCA = 0.32) are the most specialised EU exporters in CN 56 relative to their overall trade. These are predominantly smaller or mid-sized economies where nonwovens or cordage production plays a disproportionately large role in the export basket. Among the large member states, Germany remains the biggest exporter (€847 M in 2025) and importer (€488 M), but its export growth was essentially flat (−1.6%), while Italy and Spain recorded more dynamic export trajectories (+6.9% and +59.6% respectively).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in CN 56 products has been shaped by three overarching dynamics: (1) a rapid rise in imports—particularly from China and Türkiye—that has narrowed the EU's trade surplus by a third; (2) the overwhelming dominance of nonwovens (CN 5603), which account for 60% of both import and export value and where EU producers are moving upmarket in terms of unit values; and (3) a geographic realignment driven by geopolitical events, most notably the collapse of exports to Russia and the growing reliance on Asian suppliers. While EU domestic production expanded robustly in both volume and value, the pace of import growth—especially in volume—signals intensifying competition in standard-grade segments. Rising import concentration (HHI) and volatile bilateral flows with key partners point to emerging vulnerabilities in supply chains, even as the EU's diversified export base and higher export unit values provide some structural resilience.