Market evolution: Yarn and cordage articles (CN 5609) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of EU trade in articles of yarn, strip, or the like of heading 5404 or 5405, or of twine, cordage, ropes or cables of heading 5607, n.e.s. (CN 5609) for the period 2015–2025. The EU market for these products experienced significant transformation, characterized by robust import growth, a shifting geographical profile of trade partners, and major internal structural changes within the EU's production and export landscape.

The Widening Trade Deficit: Surging Imports Outpace Export Growth

The period from 2015 to 2025 was defined by a substantial increase in both trade flows, with import growth significantly outstripping export growth. This dynamic led to a widening of the EU's trade deficit for these product categories.

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU extra-EU imports increased by 158.9%, reaching EUR 118.9 million by the end of the period. Over the same timeframe, the value of exports rose by 124.5% to EUR 78.3 million General Overview. Consequently, the EU's trade deficit in this sector widened from EUR 11.0 million in 2015 to EUR 40.6 million in 2025, a deterioration of 267.9%.

This growth was driven by both volume and price effects, particularly on the import side.

While import volumes (in tonnes) more than doubled (+119.4%), the unit value increased only moderately. In contrast, EU export volumes grew by 45.7%, but their average unit value surged by 54.1%. This suggests the EU maintained a specialization in higher-value segments, yet the sheer volume of imports was the primary factor in the expanding deficit, indicating a growing structural reliance on external suppliers for these articles.

A Reconfigured Global Partnership: The Rise of Türkiye, the UK, and Morocco

The geographical structure of the EU's trade for CN 5609 underwent a notable reconfiguration between 2015 and 2025, with significant shifts in the roles of key partners on both the import and export sides.

On the import side, China remained the dominant supplier, with its shipments to the EU growing from EUR 32.2 million to EUR 78.1 million (+142.3%). However, the most dramatic growth originated from other partners. Imports from Türkiye and Georgia skyrocketed, by 727.4% and 2879.0% respectively, positioning them as increasingly important sources Top Partners by Value. This diversification, also reflected in a slight decrease in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports, points to a broadening of the EU's supply base, albeit with China retaining a central position.

The evolution of the EU's export partners tells a story of geographic realignment and volatility.

Exports to Morocco and the United States saw explosive growth, with Morocco's share becoming substantial. This expansion into new markets was accompanied by high volatility, as seen in the coefficient of variation (CV) for Morocco and Brazil. Conversely, exports to the Russian Federation collapsed by 95.6%, likely reflecting the impact of sanctions following geopolitical events. The United Kingdom, while still the top destination, showed more stable growth. This reshuffling underscores the EU's export sector adapting to political and economic changes, aggressively pursuing non-traditional markets while losing established ones.

Domestic Production Contraction and the Export Pivot

Despite the surge in trade values, the EU's domestic production base for these articles contracted sharply in volume but appeared to pivot towards higher-value output. This internal shift is a core factor explaining the concurrent rise in export propensity.

EU production volumes for CN 5609 (measured via ProdCom 13.94.12.80) plummeted by 86.6% from 112,033 tonnes in 2015 to 15,000 tonnes in 2025. However, production value only declined by 17.3%, suggesting a fundamental restructuring towards more specialized, higher-margin products or a significant increase in production costs Production Volumes.

This domestic contraction occurred alongside a dramatic increase in the EU's engagement with global markets for these products. The export propensity (exports as a share of EU production value) soared from 14.9% in 2015 to 63.1% in 2025. Simultaneously, net import reliance (net imports as a share of apparent consumption) surged from 6.2% to 24.3%, peaking at 38.9% in 2021 Vulnerability. These trends are interconnected: as domestic volume production declined, the EU increasingly relied on imports to meet demand, while its remaining, likely more specialized, producers focused intensely on exporting.

This dynamic is further nuanced by specialization patterns within the EU. In 2025, Denmark, Latvia, and Portugal showed the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in this product category, indicating these member states housed the most competitive exporters. Meanwhile, major economies like Germany and France, while being top importers, also significantly increased their export values, suggesting they may be hubs for processing or re-exporting higher-value finished goods Specialisation.

Conclusion

The EU trade market for CN 5609 between 2015 and 2025 was transformed by three concurrent trends: a ballooning trade deficit driven by soaring import volumes, a significant realignment of trading partners with the rise of new suppliers and destinations, and a profound contraction of domestic volume production coupled with a strategic pivot towards high-value exports.

The data points to an industry undergoing structural adjustment. The EU has become considerably more reliant on extra-EU supply to meet its basic volume needs, particularly from China, Türkiye, and Georgia. At the same time, EU producers, increasingly concentrated in specific member states, have leveraged this environment to amplify their focus on export markets, successfully growing sales to partners like Morocco, the United States, and Switzerland despite overall volatility. The collapse in exports to Russia and the persistent trade deficit highlight vulnerabilities, but the concurrent surge in export propensity and unit values suggests an industry moving towards higher-value niches within the global supply chain. The coming years will test the resilience of this new equilibrium.