Market evolution: Felt (CN 5602) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade dynamics of felt products (Combined Nomenclature code 5602) for the European Union over the period from 2015 to 2025. The analysis reveals a fundamental shift in the EU's position within the global market for these goods. Characterized by a massive surge in imports and relatively stable export volumes, the EU's trade profile transformed from being a net exporter to one of near-balance, driven by specific sourcing patterns and product segment performance.
1. A Decade of Surging Imports and the Erosion of the Trade Surplus
The most significant trend over the decade was the explosive growth of felt imports into the EU, which fundamentally altered the bloc's trade balance.
Import growth vastly outpaced export performance
EU imports of felt products surged by 107.2% in value, from €82.8 million in 2015 to €171.4 million in 2025. This growth was even more pronounced in volume terms, with quantity imported increasing by 113.9% to reach 66,559 tonnes. In contrast, export value grew by 40.0% to €167.2 million, while export volumes actually declined by 3.0% over the period. This stark divergence meant the EU's trade surplus in felt, which stood at €36.7 million in 2015, was completely eroded, resulting in a small trade deficit of -€4.2 million by 2025. The net import reliance metric, which was negative (indicating a surplus) throughout most of the period, approached zero in 2025, signaling this loss of net exporter status.
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China and Türkiye became the dominant suppliers
The import growth was heavily concentrated in a few key partner countries. China and Türkiye were the primary sources, with import values from China growing by 162.8% to €68.3 million and from Türkiye by an extraordinary 325.7% to €49.5 million. Together, these two countries accounted for over two-thirds of all EU felt imports by 2025. Meanwhile, imports from the United Kingdom, a historical major supplier, remained relatively stable in value (a slight decline of -5.7%). The increase in import concentration (HHI index rising from 2,247 to 2,675) further underscores the growing reliance on a limited number of external suppliers.
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Price dynamics favoured imports over exports
A key factor in the trade balance shift was price evolution. The average price of EU imports increased only modestly, by 44.2% to €6,800 per tonne. Conversely, the average price for EU exports climbed by 44.2% to €6,800 per tonne. This indicates that while the EU commanded a higher price for its exports (a 44.2% increase), the sheer volume growth in lower-priced imports more than offset this advantage.
2. Product Segments: Needleloom Felt Drives the Import Wave
The aggregate trade figures are underpinned by distinct performances across the four product sub-segments of CN 5602.
Needleloom felt (560210) is the core traded product
Needleloom felt and stitch-bonded fibre fabrics (CN 560210) consistently represented the largest share of trade in both directions. In 2025, it accounted for 49% of total import value and 72% of total export value. Its performance heavily influenced overall market trends.
The import surge was led by needleloom and "other" felts
The massive increase in import volume was not uniform across products. Imports of needleloom felt (560210) grew by 78% in quantity (to 33,163 tonnes), and imports of felt not impregnated, excluding wool (560229) grew by 235% (to 13,305 tonnes). However, the most dramatic volume growth was in felt, impregnated, coated, covered or laminated (560290), which saw imported quantities rise by 135% to 18,998 tonnes. This suggests strong EU demand for treated or finished felt products supplied from abroad.
| Sub-Segment | Import Value 2015 (€M) | Import Value 2025 (€M) | Change (%) | Import Qty 2015 (t) | Import Qty 2025 (t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 560210 (Needleloom) | 49.5 | 81.0 | +63.6% | 18,654 | 33,163 | +77.8% |
| 560290 (Impregnated, etc.) | 21.1 | 53.5 | +153.6% | 8,091 | 18,998 | +134.8% |
| 560229 (Not impregnated, excl. wool) | 8.6 | 28.1 | +226.7% | 3,970 | 13,305 | +235.1% |
| 560221 (Wool felt) | 3.5 | 8.8 | +151.0% | 407 | 1,092 | +168.3% |
Export volumes of secondary segments contracted
While EU export values held relatively steady overall, the volume data reveals a structural shift. The quantity of exports in needleloom felt (560210) was stable (20,883 tonnes in 2025 vs 19,538 tonnes in 2015). However, exports of impregnated felt (560290) plummeted by 56% in quantity, and exports of non-needleloom, non-wool felt (560229) fell by 1.4% from a 2019 peak. This indicates a potential loss of competitiveness or shift in EU production focus for certain finished felt products.
3. Shifting Geographies: Production Relocation and Trade Volatility
Behind the aggregate numbers lie significant geographical shifts in production and trade relationships, marked by periods of high volatility.
EU domestic production declined despite rising trade
Eurostat production data shows EU felt production (in volume) declined by 40% from 240 million kg in 2015 to 144 million kg in 2025. Production value also fell by 7.8%. This decline in domestic output occurred simultaneously with the surge in imports, strongly suggesting a process of offshoring or import substitution, particularly for lower-value or standard felt products.
Trade relationships with key partners were volatile
Trade flows were characterized by high volatility. For imports, Vietnamese supplies exhibited extreme volatility (Coefficient of Variation of 1.2), indicative of an emerging and unstable supply chain. For exports, the relationship with China showed high volatility (CV of 0.42). This instability extended to significant price shocks. Analysis of annual data reveals detected price shocks in 2022, notably for exports to the United States (abnormality score 36.3) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (score 53.1). These shocks, likely linked to post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and energy price inflation, temporarily distorted trade values.
Germany remains the EU's core hub, but roles evolved
Within the EU, Germany was consistently the largest exporter (€66.5 million in 2025, 40% of total) and the largest importer (€30.6 million). However, its import growth rate (73.6%) was lower than the EU average, suggesting other member states absorbed more of the import surge. Notably, Romania and the Netherlands saw their import values explode (by 150.3% and 258.9% respectively), indicating these countries may have become key entry points or processing centers for imported felt. The Netherlands also emerged as a major export re-exporter, with export value growing by 323.0%.
Conclusion
The EU felt market underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The decade was defined by a massive, import-driven expansion that erased the EU's trade surplus and signaled a restructuring of global supply chains for these textile products. This was fueled by prolific sourcing from China and Türkiye, particularly for needleloom and treated felts, against a backdrop of declining domestic production. While the EU maintained its high-value export position, especially in needleloom felt, its overall market structure shifted towards greater dependence on external supplies. The period was also marked by significant volatility and price shocks, highlighting the market's sensitivity to global disruptions. The future trajectory will depend on the EU's ability to maintain export competitiveness while managing its increasing import dependency in a dynamic global landscape.