Market evolution: Nonwoven fabrics (CN 5603) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the EU's external trade in nonwoven fabrics (Combined Nomenclature code 5603) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers nonwovens made of synthetic or man-made filaments and other materials, at various grammages, whether or not impregnated, coated, covered or laminated. CN 5603 is a bundled heading encompassing eight six-digit subheadings segmented by material (man-made filaments vs. other) and by weight class (≤25 g/m², 25–70 g/m², 70–150 g/m², and >150 g/m²). The EU remains a net exporter of nonwovens, but the decade to 2025 was marked by a substantial surge in imports, a narrowing trade surplus, and a pronounced divergence between export and import unit values — all against a backdrop of nearly doubling domestic production value.

1. A Surging Import Bill Erodes the EU's Trade Surplus

EU imports grew far faster than exports over the decade

Between 2015 and 2025, EU extra-EU trade in CN 5603 tells a story of two contrasting trajectories. Exports rose from €1.94 billion to €2.20 billion in value (+13.5%), yet their volume fell from 437,220 t to 363,023 t (−17.0%). By contrast, imports surged from €999 million to €1.64 billion in value (+63.9%) and from 238,991 t to 387,826 t in volume (+62.3%). The EU's trade surplus consequently shrank from €942 million to just €566 million — a contraction of 40%.

China and Türkiye are the primary engines of import growth

The partner-level data reveals that the import surge is overwhelmingly concentrated in two origins. EU imports from China grew from €190 million to €438 million (+131%), while those from Türkiye climbed from €124 million to €311 million (+150%). Together, these two suppliers now account for roughly 46% of the EU's extra-EU nonwoven imports by value, up from around 31% in 2015. The United States remains a significant supplier (€282 million in 2025, +15% over the period), but its share has declined in relative terms. The United Kingdom's share also fell (−17.6%), likely reflecting post-Brexit trade friction.

The import-side market is becoming more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,364 to 1,628 (+19.3%), and by volume from 1,351 to 2,532 (+87.4%). While the value-based HHI still indicates a moderately competitive market, the volume-based HHI approaching the 2,500 threshold signals a meaningful tightening of supply concentration. This is consistent with the dominant role of China and Türkiye. Export-side concentration remained stable and low (HHI by value around 806–836), reflecting the EU's diversified customer base.

EU member states saw divergent import trajectories

Among the top EU member states by import value, Italy's extra-EU imports more than doubled (+106.3%, from €144 million to €298 million), and Belgium's nearly doubled (+99.0%). The Netherlands (+83.7%) and Czechia (+60.8%) also saw pronounced increases. Germany remained the largest single importer (€275 million), though its growth was more moderate (+25.4%). These figures suggest that nonwoven-consuming industries across the EU — particularly in Southern and Central Europe — have increasingly sourced from third-country suppliers.

2. Price Polarisation: The EU Exports Upmarket While Importing Downmarket

Export prices surged while import prices barely moved

One of the most striking dynamics in the data is the divergence in unit values. EU export unit values rose from €4,441/t to €6,062/t (+36.5%), while import unit values were essentially flat at around €4,181/t to €4,222/t (+1.0%). This implies that the EU is increasingly specialising in higher-value nonwoven products while importing lower-cost, more commoditised grades.

The product mix shift explains much of the price divergence

Examining the segment-level breakdown, the EU's export profile is increasingly dominated by heavier, higher-value nonwovens. Exports of the >150 g/m² man-made filament segment (CN 560314) held relatively steady in volume (60,242 t → 50,581 t) but saw their unit value climb from €5,457/t to €8,781/t (+61%). The >150 g/m² non-man-made segment (CN 560394) saw export volume grow from 29,097 t to 35,535 t, with unit values rising from €5,297/t to €7,783/t (+47%). Meanwhile, lighter-weight export segments such as CN 560311 (≤25 g/m² man-made filaments) contracted in volume from 69,618 t to 43,241 t (−38%).

On the import side, the fastest-growing segments by volume are the lighter, lower-unit-value products. CN 560392 (25–70 g/m², non-man-made filaments) saw imports surge from 28,828 t to 45,279 t (+57%), and CN 560311 (≤25 g/m² man-made filaments) grew from 43,351 t to 74,645 t (+72%). Import prices for CN 560311 fell from €3,029/t to €2,423/t (−20%), consistent with competitive pressure from Asian suppliers in commoditised lightweight nonwovens.

A detected supply-side price shock in Turkish imports

The volatility analysis identified a notable price shock event centred on 2022 for EU imports from Türkiye, with an abnormality score of 8.5 and a 14% price shift. This coincided with the post-pandemic surge in input costs (energy, polymers) and heightened demand for hygiene nonwovens. Türkiye's share in EU import value reached 21.7% around that period, making any price fluctuation from that origin highly visible. Among export volatility, Russia and Ukraine exhibited the highest coefficient of variation (0.34 and 0.37 respectively), reflecting the disruptions linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

3. The EU's Nonwoven Sector: Growing Production, Shifting Specialisation, and Declining Net Export Dominance

Domestic production expanded strongly in both volume and value

EU production data for CN 5603 shows output rising from 1.37 billion kg to 2.04 billion kg (+48.4%) in quantity, and from €3.62 billion to €6.87 billion (+89.8%) in value. This near-doubling of production value — outpacing the volume increase — mirrors the export-side price uplift and indicates that EU producers have shifted toward higher-value, more specialised products. Production peaked at around 2.09 billion kg and €7.38 billion before slightly retreating, suggesting some capacity normalisation after the pandemic-era demand spike for hygiene and medical nonwovens.

The EU remains a net exporter, but reliance is eroding

The net import reliance indicator — which is negative when the EU is a net exporter — moved from −19.0% in 2015 to −11.0% in 2025 (+42.3%). While the EU still exports more than it imports, the net surplus in relative terms has nearly halved. This trend aligns with the trade intensity metric rising from 35.6% to 44.6% and the export propensity increasing from 27.9% to 32.2%. The EU nonwoven sector is becoming more trade-oriented in both directions, but the import side is growing faster.

Specialisation is concentrated in a handful of member states

The RSCA-based specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that Luxembourg (RSCA 0.84, RCA 11.5) is by far the most specialised EU exporter in nonwovens, though its overall production share is modest (3.7%). Italy (RSCA 0.35, RCA 2.06) is the most significant in absolute terms, accounting for 16.5% of EU nonwoven production and 8.0% of total EU exports. Slovenia (RSCA 0.51) and Greece (RSCA 0.37) show notable specialisation at smaller scale. At the other end, larger economies like Germany — the EU's single largest nonwoven exporter at €655 million in 2025 — saw a slight decline (−3.9%) from its peak, while Spain (+60.4%) and the Netherlands (+39.5%) emerged as increasingly active exporters. Russia's collapse as an EU export destination (−59.3%, from €85 million to €34 million) reflects sanctions and trade reorientation, while Morocco (+93.4%) stands out as a fast-growing export market in the EU's southern neighbourhood.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's nonwoven fabrics market has undergone a structural shift. The EU remains a net exporter, but its competitive advantage is increasingly concentrated in higher-value, heavier-weight segments. Meanwhile, import growth — driven overwhelmingly by China and Türkiye — has been rapid and volume-intensive, eroding the trade surplus by 40%. Import-side concentration has risen sharply, particularly on a volume basis, raising potential supply-chain vulnerability concerns. At the same time, EU domestic production has nearly doubled in value, suggesting that the industry is successfully moving up the value chain even as it faces intensifying competition in commoditised product segments. The price shock detected in Turkish imports in 2022 underscores the sensitivity of the EU market to developments in key supplier countries, and the ongoing decline in net export dominance warrants attention from a trade-policy and industrial-strategy perspective.