Market evolution: Textile wadding and flock (CN 5601) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in products classified under Combined Nomenclature (CN) code 5601, which covers textile wadding, flock, dust, and mill neps. The period under review (2015–2025) has been characterised by significant shifts in global supply chains, geopolitical events, and evolving industrial demand. The EU's trade in this sector reveals a story of robust growth, strategic reorientation of partners, and increasing specialisation. Despite maintaining a strong net exporter position, the bloc has seen its trade relationships and production patterns transform considerably.

The EU's strengthening net exporter position amid rising volumes and values

Over the decade from 2015 to 2025, the EU solidified its role as a major net exporter of CN 5601 products. The overall trade balance increased by 21.0%, growing from €214.7 million in 2015 to €259.9 million in 2025. This strengthening occurred even as both imports and exports expanded significantly, indicating that export growth outpaced that of imports.

Export growth was driven by value rather than volume

EU exports of CN 5601 products grew from €379.1 million to €460.1 million (+21.4%) in value over the period. However, the quantity exported increased only marginally by 2.3%, from 47,571 tonnes to 48,660 tonnes. This divergence points to a substantial increase in the average export price, which rose by 18.6% from €7,968 per tonne to €9,454 per tonne. This suggests a shift in the EU's export basket towards higher-value products or significant inflationary pressures across the period.

Import growth was particularly strong in volume

In contrast, EU imports grew by 21.8% in value but surged by a much steeper 35.6% in volume, from 24,326 tonnes to 32,991 tonnes. The average import price actually declined by 10.2% over the same period. This combination of falling prices and rising volumes indicates that the EU increasingly sourced its CN 5601 imports from lower-cost producers, expanding the total import footprint.

The net import reliance metric deepened into negative territory

The EU's net import reliance, calculated as (imports - exports) / production, became significantly more negative, moving from -30.0% to -71.1%. A negative value indicates a net exporter. This deepening reinforces the EU's strong competitive position, meaning its production increasingly surpassed its own consumption, creating a growing surplus for international markets.

A dramatic reorientation of key trade partners

The decade witnessed a major reshuffling of the EU's most important trade partners for CN 5601 products. Geopolitical shifts, such as Brexit and the invasion of Ukraine, are clearly reflected in the data, alongside the rising influence of other nations.

Import sources shifted from the UK towards Türkiye and China

The most dramatic change on the import side was the collapse of trade with the United Kingdom, which saw its share of EU imports plummet by 57.9%. Meanwhile, imports from Türkiye exploded, growing by 347.6% to become the top supplier by 2025, valued at €48.5 million. Imports from China also more than doubled (+105.1%). This reorientation suggests a significant geographical shift in the EU's supply chain for these textile materials, moving away from its former key partner towards countries with cost-competitive manufacturing.

Export destinations were reshaped by conflict and European integration

On the export side, the most striking development was the near-collapse of trade with the Russian Federation, which fell by 73.2% from €72.2 million to €19.4 million, a clear consequence of sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Conversely, exports to Ukraine itself grew by 95.4%. The United Kingdom remained the EU's single largest export destination, with exports rising by 58.8% to €67.7 million. Serbia also emerged as a key growth market (+87.0%), reflecting deeper integration with EU supply chains in the Western Balkans.

The concentration of trade with partners decreased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for both imports and exports fell, indicating a diversification of trade partners. For exports, the HHI fell by 32.3%, meaning the EU's export portfolio became less reliant on any single market. For imports, the HHI fell by 21.4%, signifying a broader sourcing base. This diversification enhances the resilience of the EU's textile supply chain.

Structural shifts in production, specialisation, and segment performance

Beneath the aggregate trade figures, the data reveals underlying shifts in the EU's production landscape and the performance of distinct product sub-segments.

EU production volumes decreased, but value increased

The available production data shows a stark divergence. The volume of production fell by 53.2% (from 470,094 kg to 220,000 kg), while its value increased by 7.4% (from €621.6 million to €667.5 million). This points to a fundamental move away from bulk commodity production towards higher-margin, specialised products within the EU. This aligns with the observed rise in export prices.

Specialisation in exports is concentrated in newer EU Member States

An analysis of export specialisation reveals that the most specialised exporters within the EU are Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Estonia. These countries exhibit very high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores, indicating that CN 5601 products form a significant part of their total export profile. This suggests that production and specialisation in this sector have become more geographically concentrated within the EU, particularly in some Eastern and Baltic states.

The man-made fibre segment dominates, while cotton wadding imports surge

The product segment breakdown shows that wadding of man-made fibres (CN 560122) is the largest segment by both import and export value. However, its trade patterns differ: exports saw high volatility in value, while imports were relatively stable. Notably, imports of cotton wadding (CN 560121) grew massively in volume (+132% from 2015 to 2025), though its import value grew more moderately (+92%), implying falling unit prices. In contrast, imports of man-made fibre wadding declined in volume, suggesting a potential substitution effect or changes in downstream industrial demand.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 5601 products from 2015 to 2025 reflects a market in robust growth and dynamic transformation. The bloc successfully maintained and strengthened its position as a net exporter, with the trade surplus expanding. This was achieved despite—and partly because of—a profound reorientation of trade partnerships, marked by the decline of the UK as an import source and the rise of Türkiye and China, and the collapse of exports to Russia post-2022.

Internally, the EU's production structure appears to have shifted towards higher-value activities, even as overall volumes declined. This evolution is underpinned by increasing specialisation in certain Member States and diverging trends across product sub-segments. The market has become more diversified and resilient in its external partnerships while becoming more specialised in its internal production base. These trends suggest an industry adapting to geopolitical and economic pressures by leveraging its comparative advantage in higher-value manufacturing.