Market evolution: Rubber thread (CN 5604) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in CN 5604 — a product category covering textile-covered rubber thread and cord, as well as textile yarn and strip impregnated or coated with rubber or plastics — over the period 2015–2025. The analysis draws on Eurostat trade data at the annual frequency, covering both the aggregate EU trade with non-EU countries and the product-level breakdown between subheadings 560410 and 560490.

The EU maintains a structural trade surplus in this product, with the overall trade balance strengthening from €32.2 million in 2015 to €38.1 million in 2025 (+18.2%). However, beneath this headline stability, the period has been marked by a pronounced shift from volume-driven to price-driven growth, significant reorientation of both import and export partnerships, rising import concentration, and a substantial increase in the EU's outward trade integration.

I. A market driven by prices rather than volumes

EU exports rose in value but stagnated in quantity

The most striking feature of the EU's export performance is the divergence between value and volume. Export value increased by 63.2% over the period, from €56.4 million in 2015 to €92.0 million in 2025. Yet export quantity barely moved, declining marginally by 0.4% from 6,036 tonnes to 6,011 tonnes. The entire increase in export revenue was therefore driven by a 63.8% rise in unit export prices, which climbed from €9,335/tonne to €15,294/tonne.

This pattern is consistent with a shift toward higher-value or more processed product segments, as well as with the general inflationary pressures that have affected raw material and energy costs across European manufacturing since 2021. The general overview confirms that the peak export value of €105.1 million was reached in 2022, likely reflecting post-pandemic restocking and cost pass-through.

Imports grew in both value and volume, but prices also surged

Unlike exports, EU imports grew in both dimensions. Import value more than doubled (+123.2%), rising from €24.1 million to €53.8 million, while import volume increased by 59.7% from 4,041 tonnes to 6,451 tonnes. Import prices rose by 39.8%, from €5,968/tonne to €8,344/tonne.

The price differential between EU exports (€15,294/tonne) and imports (€8,344/tonne) remained wide in 2025, underscoring the EU's position as a net exporter of higher-value products within this category. This is further confirmed by the product-level breakdown: EU exports were dominated by subheading 560490 (impregnated or coated yarn, strip, etc.), which commanded an average export price of €15,500/tonne in 2025, while imports of subheading 560410 (textile-covered rubber thread and cord) averaged only €7,229/tonne.

EU production volumes declined even as values rose

Domestic EU production data reveals a structural contraction in physical output: production quantity fell from 33.3 million kg in 2015 to 25.7 million kg in 2025 (−22.9%), while production value rose from €236 million to €271 million (+14.7%). The widening gap between production volume and value suggests that the EU's remaining production has shifted toward higher-margin products, or that input costs have been passed through. This volume decline, coupled with rising imports, points to an erosion of the EU's manufacturing base for the more commodity-grade segments of CN 5604.

II. Geographic realignment: from West to East and South

Türkiye and China reshaped EU import sourcing

The most dramatic change in the EU's import landscape has been the explosive growth of Türkiye as a supplier. Imports from Türkiye surged from €1.4 million in 2015 to €15.2 million in 2025 — a staggering 953% increase — making it the second-largest source of EU imports after China. China also expanded significantly (+179.8%, from €8.8 million to €24.6 million), but the growth of Turkish supply was far more pronounced in relative terms.

The combined share of China and Türkiye in EU imports rose dramatically, contributing to a 51.7% increase in the import Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which climbed from 1,979 to 3,002. This level of concentration — approaching the 3,000 threshold commonly associated with moderate-to-high concentration — represents a meaningful increase in the EU's supply dependence on a small number of partners.

Thailand and the United States became dominant export markets

On the export side, the most remarkable shift was the ascent of Thailand as a destination. EU exports to Thailand grew from €6.2 million to €26.8 million (+332.2%), making Thailand the single largest export market for CN 5604 in 2025, surpassing the United States. The United States remained the second-largest market at €23.5 million (+47.4%), while exports to the United Kingdom recovered post-Brexit to €7.9 million (+46.8%).

The near-total collapse of exports to the Russian Federation (−96.8%) reflects the impact of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Exports to Russia fell from €3.5 million in 2021 to just €65,346 in 2025.

Within the EU, France and Italy anchored exports; Germany and Italy led import growth

At the member-state level, France was by far the largest EU exporter, with exports nearly doubling from €19.7 million to €38.1 million (+93.1%). Italy remained the second-largest exporter at €20.8 million (+20.2%). The most dramatic growth, however, came from Poland, whose exports surged from €0.95 million to €14.6 million (+1,440%), suggesting a rapid build-up of production capacity for this product category.

On the import side, Germany saw the largest absolute increase (from €3.5 million to €10.2 million, +195.1%), followed by Italy (from €1.9 million to €8.4 million, +351.5%) and France (from €1.8 million to €5.2 million, +194.5%).

III. Structural shifts in product composition, specialization, and trade integration

The coated-yarn segment (560490) drove most of the growth

The product breakdown reveals that the two sub-categories of CN 5604 — 560410 (textile-covered rubber thread and cord) and 560490 (impregnated or coated yarn, strip, etc.) — followed divergent trajectories.

Imports: The 560410 segment remained the larger category by volume (3,235 tonnes in 2025), but its growth was modest (+19.7% in quantity). The 560490 segment, by contrast, saw imports nearly triple in volume (from 1,339 tonnes to 3,217 tonnes, +140.3%) and more than triple in value (from €9.5 million to €30.4 million, +220.7%). This indicates that the EU's import appetite grew primarily for the more processed, higher-value-added coated and impregnated products.

Exports: EU exports were overwhelmingly composed of 560490 products, which accounted for 5,326 tonnes (88.6% of total export volume) and €82.6 million (89.7% of total export value) in 2025. Notably, the 560410 export segment contracted sharply in volume (from 1,151 tonnes to 685 tonnes, −40.5%), even as its unit price rose from €7,377/tonne to €13,685/tonne (+85.5%). This suggests the EU is withdrawing from the lower-value rubber thread segment and consolidating its export position in the higher-value coated yarn category.

Italy, France, and Poland showed the strongest export specialization

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that Italy had the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) score at 0.67, with a Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) of 4.98 — meaning Italy's share of EU exports in CN 5604 was roughly five times its share of overall EU exports. France (RSCA 0.39, RCA 2.27) and Poland (RSCA 0.27, RCA 1.74) followed. These three countries are the EU's core competitive hubs for this product category. At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland, Luxembourg, Slovakia, Finland, and Bulgaria showed negligible specialisation (negative RSCA values close to −1).

Trade integration deepened and export propensity surged

Perhaps the most significant structural development was the dramatic increase in the EU's outward trade orientation. The trade intensity index — measuring total trade (imports + exports) relative to domestic production — more than doubled from 17.1% to 44.5%. Even more strikingly, the export propensity — exports as a share of production — surged from 13.0% to 35.4% (+172.3%).

The negative and deepening net import reliance (from −8.8% to −23.3%) confirms that the EU remained and became even more firmly a net exporter of CN 5604 products over the decade. The simultaneous increase in trade intensity and export propensity, combined with declining domestic production volumes, suggests that EU producers increasingly oriented their output toward international markets while also relying more heavily on imported inputs or finished goods to serve domestic demand.

Volatility and supply shocks were concentrated in a few corridors

The volatility analysis reveals that trade flows were generally stable with most major partners, but several exceptions stand out. Imports from Malaysia exhibited extremely high volatility (coefficient of variation of 1.04), as did imports from Mexico (CV 1.41). On the export side, Morocco (CV 0.71) and Brazil (CV 0.66) showed the highest variability.

The detected supply shocks include:

• A price shock in EU imports from Türkiye in 2023 (abnormality score: 16.0, price shift: +78%), coinciding with the period when Turkish supply was expanding most rapidly and likely reflecting currency dynamics (the sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira).
• A price shock in EU exports to Mexico in 2021 (abnormality: 14.4, shift: +48.6%), possibly linked to post-COVID logistics disruptions and demand recovery.
• A price shock in EU exports to Tunisia in 2017 (abnormality: 13.4, shift: +123.4%), which, given the small value share (1.8%), likely reflected a one-off shift in product mix or pricing terms.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for CN 5604 underwent a fundamental transformation characterized by price-led rather than volume-led growth, a geographic reorientation of trade partnerships, and a deepening of international trade integration.

The EU consolidated its position as a net exporter, with the trade surplus widening and export propensity more than tripling. However, this outward orientation was built on declining domestic production volumes, suggesting a structural shift whereby EU firms increasingly specialize in higher-value segments (particularly 560490 coated yarns) while sourcing lower-value products from abroad.

On the import side, the rise of Türkiye — growing nearly tenfold — stands out as the decade's most significant development, alongside the continued dominance of China. This concentration of supply in fewer partners, as reflected in the rising HHI, represents a growing vulnerability that merits monitoring. On the export side, the explosive growth of Thailand as the EU's largest destination (+332%) and the near-total loss of the Russian market (−97%, reflecting sanctions) redefined the EU's export geography.

The wide and persistent price differential between EU exports (€15,294/t) and imports (€8,344/t) confirms that the EU occupies the higher end of the value chain in this product category. The challenge for EU producers will be to sustain this positioning as import competition intensifies and domestic production capacity continues to contract.