Market evolution: Twine and cordage (CN 5607) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in twine, cordage, ropes and cables (Combined Nomenclature code 5607) over the 2015–2025 period. CN 5607 is a bundled heading encompassing six sub-headings: sisal binder twine (560721), other sisal cordage (560729), polyethylene/polypropylene (PE/PP) binder twine (560741), PE/PP cordage excluding binder twine (560749), other synthetic-fibre cordage (560750), and cordage of all other materials (560790). The product range serves agriculture, fisheries, construction, maritime, and industrial packaging end-markets, making it a useful barometer of broader manufacturing and trade dynamics.

Over the decade under review, the EU consolidated its position as a net exporter in this category — the net export surplus widened from –1.2 % to –23.7 % of apparent consumption in quantity terms. Yet beneath that headline, the picture is more nuanced: import volumes grew nearly twice as fast as export volumes, the geographic profile of suppliers shifted decisively toward Asia, and the internal product mix evolved in response to material substitution and price pressures. The following three sections unpack these dynamics.

1. A Widening Trade Gap: Import Growth Outpaces Exports

Aggregate trade flows moved in opposite directions

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 5607 rose from €125 million to €212 million (+68.7 %) in value and from 32,135 tonnes to 51,511 tonnes (+60.3 %) in volume. Over the same period, EU exports grew more modestly — from €313 million to €368 million (+17.5 %) in value, while their volume actually contracted from 75,231 tonnes to 71,970 tonnes (–4.3 %).

Source: Trade overview

The trade surplus narrowed despite the EU remaining a structural net exporter

The EU's trade surplus in CN 5607 fell from €188 million to €156 million over the decade (–16.7 %). In 2022, a sharp import surge (€230 million, the decade's peak) briefly pushed the surplus down to €110 million — the lowest point in the series — before partial recovery in 2023–2025. Crucially, while the value surplus shrank, the EU remained a substantial net exporter in volume: net import reliance deepened from –1.2 % to –23.7 %, reflecting the fact that the EU exports far more tonnes than it imports. The paradox — a widening quantity surplus but a narrowing value surplus — points to a growing price premium on EU exports relative to imports (see Section 3).

Export price inflation masked stagnating volumes

EU export unit values climbed from €4,164/t in 2015 to €5,111/t in 2025 (+22.7 %), while import prices rose only 5.2 % (from €3,904/t to €4,108/t). This divergence means that nearly all the 17.5 % increase in export value was driven by higher unit prices rather than by volume growth. Import growth, by contrast, was overwhelmingly volume-driven, suggesting a genuine increase in the EU's appetite for externally sourced cordage.

2. A Shifting Geographic Landscape: Asia Rises and Traditional Partners Reconfigure

China and India became the dominant import suppliers

The most striking geographic development on the import side was the rapid ascent of Asian suppliers. China's share of EU CN 5607 imports surged from €32 million to €76 million (+134.5 %), cementing its position as the single largest extra-EU supplier. India followed a similar trajectory, growing from €6 million to €16 million (+158.1 %). Together, China and India accounted for approximately 43 % of EU imports by 2025, up from roughly 31 % in 2015.

Source: Import partners

Traditional agricultural-fibre suppliers lost ground

Two suppliers with a historical specialisation in natural-fibre cordage — Serbia and Madagascar — experienced outright declines (–35.1 % and –35.6 % respectively). This is consistent with the broader product-segment data, which show stagnation or decline in the sisal sub-headings (560721, 560729). The retreat of these suppliers mirrors the global shift away from natural-fibre cordage toward synthetic alternatives.

Import concentration increased markedly

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 1,077 in 2015 to 1,633 in 2025 (+51.6 %). While still below the conventional 2,500 threshold for a "highly concentrated" market, this increase signals a growing dependence on a smaller set of suppliers — principally China. For policymakers monitoring supply-chain resilience, this concentration trend merits attention.

Export destinations diversified, but Norway collapsed

On the export side, the HHI for value fell from 829 to 595 (–28.2 %), indicating a broadening of destination markets. The United States (€53 million) and the United Kingdom (€50 million) remained the two largest extra-EU customers, together absorbing roughly 28 % of EU exports. Growth was particularly strong to Morocco (+102.8 %), Türkiye (+110.4 %), and Australia (+44.8 %).

The most conspicuous decline was Norway: EU cordage exports to Norway fell from €43 million to €24 million (–44.2 %). Norway had been the EU's single largest export market in 2015, driven by the offshore oil and maritime sectors; the contraction likely reflects both the post-2014 oil-price downturn's lagged effects on maritime demand and increased Norwegian sourcing from other regions. Exports to Canada also fell (–12.7 %).

EU member-state roles shifted significantly

Portugal remained the EU's largest exporter of CN 5607, but its dominance eroded: its share fell from 36 % (€113 million) to 22 % (€82 million) of total EU exports. Meanwhile, several member states more than doubled their export values — Spain (+114.5 %), Belgium (+97.4 %), and Greece (+80.0 %) — suggesting a geographic rebalancing of EU production capacity.

Source: EU reporters

On the import side, the Netherlands (€15 million → €33 million, +113.7 %), Italy (€11 million → €23 million, +100.7 %), and especially Poland (€3 million → €14 million, +380.4 %) saw the most rapid increases — consistent with these countries' roles as logistics hubs and, in Poland's case, as a growing manufacturing base for packaging and construction materials.

3. From Volume to Value: Price Dynamics and the Evolving Product Mix

Synthetic cordage dominates the import growth story

A breakdown of import volumes by sub-heading reveals that the surge in EU imports was driven almost entirely by three synthetic and mixed-material sub-headings:

The largest and fastest-growing import category, 560749 (PE/PP cordage, excluding agricultural binder twine), nearly doubled in volume. In 2025 alone it reached 21,147 tonnes — a single-year peak. This reflects the broader substitution of synthetic for natural fibres across industrial, marine, and packaging applications. The 560790 catch-all category more than doubled as well, potentially capturing growth in specialty or niche cordage products.

EU export volumes tell a different story: binder twine declines, higher-value segments hold

EU export volumes by sub-heading show a contrasting pattern:

The EU's largest export sub-heading by volume, 560741 (PE/PP agricultural binder twine), contracted by 18.4 % — from 37,699 tonnes to 30,774 tonnes. This is the primary reason total EU export tonnage declined over the decade. Agricultural binder twine is a commodity product facing increasing competition from low-cost Asian producers, and EU manufacturers appear to be ceding volume in this segment.

Meanwhile, sisal binder twine exports (560721) collapsed from 691 tonnes to just 158 tonnes (–77.1 %), consistent with the global decline of natural-fibre agricultural twines.

EU production grew in value far faster than in volume

EU domestic production data (PRODCOM) tells a complementary story. Production quantity grew modestly from 227,301 tonnes to 240,726 tonnes (+5.9 %), but production value surged from €513 million to €926 million (+80.6 %). This implies a near-doubling of average unit production values — from roughly €2,258/t to €3,846/t — over the decade. This outsized value growth likely reflects a combination of input-cost inflation (particularly for petrochemical-derived synthetic fibres), a product mix shift toward higher-margin specialty cordage, and the exit of lower-value commodity production from the EU.

The EU's export price premium over imports widened

A consistent feature of the decade is that EU export prices significantly exceed import prices — indicating that the EU tends to export higher-specification products while importing more commoditised ones. In 2015, the export price averaged €4,164/t versus €3,904/t for imports (a 6.7 % premium). By 2025, the gap had widened: €5,111/t versus €4,108/t (a 24.4 % premium). This growing price differential is consistent with EU manufacturers specialising in higher-value synthetic cordage (e.g., high-tenacity ropes for maritime and offshore applications), while standard-grade PE/PP cordage is increasingly sourced from Asia.

Within specific segments, the contrast is stark. For PE/PP cordage (560749), the EU export price rose from €4,607/t to €6,588/t (+43 %), while the import price actually fell from €3,451/t to €3,343/t (–3 %). EU exporters thus nearly doubled their price premium in this key category — from €1,156/t to €3,245/t — suggesting meaningful differentiation in quality, specification, or branding.

Isolated price shocks did not disrupt the broader trend

The volatility analysis identifies three notable shock events: a 40.4 % price spike in EU exports to Canada in 2022 (abnormality score 19.3), a 26.7 % import price shock from Serbia in 2021 (score 7.9), and a 68.2 % export price jump to Israel in 2023 (score 7.4). The Canadian and Serbian shocks likely reflect pandemic-era logistics disruptions and raw-material cost pass-through in 2021–2022. None of these shocks, however, fundamentally altered the decade's structural trends.

Among trading partners, the coefficient of variation (CV) was highest for EU exports to the Russian Federation (0.64) and to Mexico (0.49), and for imports from Viet Nam (0.43) and the United States (0.40). The Russian Federation's high volatility partly reflects the disruptions associated with the 2022 sanctions regime, while the patterns for other partners suggest episodic, contract-driven trade rather than stable flows.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in twine and cordage (CN 5607) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural transformation rather than crisis. The EU remains a substantial net exporter — its trade balance, while narrower in value terms, stayed in surplus throughout the decade, and the net export position in volume terms actually deepened. However, the character of that surplus has changed.

Three takeaways stand out. First, import growth has been dramatic: volumes rose by 60 %, driven almost entirely by synthetic PE/PP cordage from China and India. Import concentration has increased, leaving the EU more exposed to a smaller set of suppliers. Second, the EU's export profile is shifting upward in value: total export volumes fell slightly, dragged down by declining commodity binder twine, but export prices rose by 23 % and the EU's price premium over imports widened to nearly 25 %. This points to an EU industry that is increasingly competing on quality and specification rather than on volume. Third, EU production tells the same story — modest quantity growth but an 81 % surge in production value, consistent with a move toward higher-margin products.

Looking ahead, the key dynamics to watch will be the continued build-up of import dependence on Asian suppliers for commodity-grade cordage, the ability of EU manufacturers (historically concentrated in Portugal but increasingly diversified across southern and western Europe) to defend their value premium, and the potential for further disruption from trade-policy shifts or raw-material cost volatility — particularly given the petrochemical base of the synthetic-fibre supply chain.