Market evolution: Carpets and textile floor coverings (CN 57) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in carpets and other textile floor coverings (Combined Nomenclature code 57) over the 2015-2025 period. The EU market for these products has undergone a profound transformation, characterized by a fundamental shift in its trade position, evolving supply chain dependencies, and significant pressures on domestic production. The data reveals a sector that has moved from being a net exporter to a significant net importer, with profound implications for European manufacturers and trade policy. View the product scope and definitions.

The Great Reversal: From Net Exporter to Net Importer

The most striking development over the decade is the complete inversion of the EU's trade balance in the carpet sector. The EU transitioned from a comfortable net exporter in 2015 to a net importer by 2025, indicating a fundamental loss of competitive advantage or a dramatic shift in demand patterns.

A collapsing trade surplus turns into a growing deficit

In 2015, the EU enjoyed a positive trade balance of €473 million with non-EU countries. By 2025, this had turned into a deficit of €387 million, a swing of over €860 million. This reversal was not gradual but accelerated post-2020. The primary driver was a massive increase in import values (up 46.7% from €1.31 billion to €1.92 billion) coupled with a stagnation and then decline in export values (down 14.0% from €1.78 billion to €1.53 billion). Explore the overall trade dynamics.

The EU's production base shrinks dramatically

The decline in export performance is directly linked to a severe contraction in EU production. Between the first and last available data points, EU production in square metres plummeted by 48.3%, and its value fell by 33.7%. This collapse suggests structural challenges for EU manufacturers, potentially including competition from lower-cost producers, offshoring, and shifting consumer preferences. View the production volume and value trends.

Shifting Tides: The Geographic Reconfiguration of Supply and Demand

The reversal in trade balance is underpinned by a significant reorientation of the EU's key trading partners for carpet products. Import sources have concentrated in Asia and the immediate European neighborhood, while export markets have narrowed, particularly with the United Kingdom.

Import growth is dominated by China and Türkiye, with explosive growth from Vietnam

The top three sources of EU carpet imports in 2025 were China (€513.5 M), Türkiye (€383.7 M), and India (€399.4 M). China and India saw massive increases over the period (+85.3% and +43.0% respectively). However, the most dramatic growth came from Vietnam, which surged from a negligible €176,000 in 2015 to over €105 million in 2025—a 59,743% increase. This points to a clear strategic shift in sourcing towards South and Southeast Asia. Analyze the evolution of import partners.

Export markets contract, with the UK leading the decline

EU exports remain heavily focused on European neighbors and the United States, but the volumes have declined. The United Kingdom, by far the largest export destination in 2015 (€846.8 M), saw its imports from the EU fall by 35.9% to €542.7 M by 2025. This sharp decline in the UK market is a major factor behind the overall drop in EU export performance. The Russian market also collapsed, falling by 55.8%, likely due to geopolitical sanctions. Examine the trends in export destinations.

Structural Challenges and Rising Vulnerability

Beyond the headline trade figures, the data reveals underlying structural weaknesses and increased exposure to external shocks, highlighted by concentration risks and price volatility.

Specialization within the EU has weakened, increasing external dependence

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of trade concentration, shows that EU export specialization has deteriorated significantly (HHI fell from 2,531 to 1,614). While imports remain moderately concentrated, the EU is now more reliant on a stable but smaller group of suppliers. This is complemented by a rise in trade intensity (from 42.1% to 60.9%), meaning the sector has become more deeply integrated into global trade flows, but this integration is now characterized by higher import dependence. Assess the concentration and specialization trends.

Supply shocks and price volatility in key corridors highlight fragility

The system has experienced notable price shocks, particularly in 2022. A major price shock was detected for imports from India (15.9% price shift) and China (35.1% price shift) in 2022, coinciding with global supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. Vietnam, despite its rapid growth, shows extreme volatility (coefficient of variation of 1.03), indicating its supply is still nascent and potentially unstable. These dynamics underscore the risks associated with the rapid shift in sourcing. Review the volatility and shock events.

Conclusion

The EU carpet market has undergone a decade of transformative change. The sector has evolved from a position of net self-sufficiency to one of significant external dependence, driven by a catastrophic decline in domestic production and a corresponding surge in imports. This transformation has reshaped the EU's global trade relationships, strengthening ties with Asian manufacturers while seeing traditional export markets, especially the UK, contract. The increased trade intensity and specific supply-chain vulnerabilities point to a new structural reality for the sector—one that is more globally integrated but also more exposed to geopolitical and logistical risks. The sustainability of this new equilibrium will depend on EU producers' ability to compete in niche, high-value segments and the resilience of its increasingly complex global supply chains.