Market evolution: Tufted carpets (CN 5703) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in tufted and needle-punched carpets and textile floor coverings (Combined Nomenclature code 5703) over the period 2015–2025. Drawing on the provided data, it identifies and interprets the main dynamics in EU trade flows, market structure, and vulnerability. The period was characterized by a fundamental reorientation of the EU's trade position, from a strong net exporter to a state of near balance, driven by surging imports and declining domestic production.

1. A Structural Shift from a Net Exporter to an Import-Driven Market

The decade saw a decisive reversal in the EU's trade flow for CN 5703 products. The traditional export surplus eroded significantly as import growth vastly outpaced a decline in export values.

The collapse of the EU's trade surplus

The EU's trade balance in value terms shifted from a strong surplus of €650 million in 2015 to a surplus of just €226 million in 2025, a contraction of 65.3%. This dramatic change stems from divergent trends: the value of exports fell by 14.8% over the period, while the value of imports increased by 64.3%. Consequently, the net import reliance metric improved from -32% to -13%, indicating the EU is becoming less of a net exporter and more self-sufficient in serving its own market through domestic production, or, more likely, is absorbing more imports.

Volume and price dynamics underpin the value shift

The value trends mask even steeper shifts in physical trade volumes.

Source: General Overview dashboard

EU export volumes contracted sharply (by over a third in square meterage), but this was partly offset by rising unit prices (+23.9% per tonne). Conversely, import volumes nearly doubled in tonnage and more than doubled in area, but this was achieved with a 17.4% decrease in price per tonne. This points to increased imports of lower-cost, mass-market products, while EU exports appear to have shifted towards higher-value, niche segments.

2. A Diversifying and Shifting Supplier Landscape

The origin of products entering the EU market transformed, with traditional suppliers losing share to new manufacturing hubs and a post-Brexit United Kingdom.

The rise of Vietnam and the resilience of China and India

While China remained the largest single supplier by value, its share growth was moderate (+21.7% to €218 million). The most dramatic shift was the meteoric rise of Vietnam as a major supplier, with imports surging from a negligible €10,000 in 2015 to over €101 million in 2025. This indicates a significant relocation or expansion of carpet manufacturing capacity. India also saw substantial growth (+72.4%), cementing its role. Conversely, imports from the United Kingdom grew by 80.4%, a notable dynamic following its departure from the EU's Single Market and Customs Union in 2021.

EU export markets: Reduced dominance of the United Kingdom

On the export side, the United Kingdom's share of EU exports plummeted. It remained the top destination but saw a 38.5% decrease in value, falling from €654 million to €402 million. This reduction was only partially compensated by growth in other markets like the United States (+56.0%), Mexico (+148.5%), and Norway (+28.9%). The decline in exports to Russia (-48.6%) is also significant and likely reflects geopolitical sanctions. This diversification away from the UK market, while positive for risk spreading, has not fully offset the loss.

3. EU Production Decline and Internal Market Restructuring

The trade shifts are mirrored by a significant contraction in the EU's own manufacturing base for this product category, altering the internal competitive landscape.

A steep fall in EU production volumes

EU production of tufted carpets (CN 5703) collapsed over the period. Volume in square meters fell by 62.3%, from 728 million m² to 274 million m². The production value declined by 33.8% to €2.3 billion. This steep drop in physical output strongly suggests a loss of manufacturing capacity, likely due to cost competition from Asia, which in turn fuels the surge in imports. It indicates that the EU is increasingly becoming a market rather than a major production center for these goods.

Specialization within the EU and changing trade concentration

Within the EU, export specialization for CN 5703 is concentrated in a few member states. In 2025, Denmark, Belgium, and the Netherlands displayed the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA), with the Netherlands alone accounting for over 30% of EU export value. Meanwhile, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports fell significantly from 2,464 to 1,846, confirming increased diversification of supply sources. The HHI for exports also dropped sharply (from 3,912 to 2,210), reflecting the move away from the UK-dominated export pattern.

Conclusion

The period 2015–2025 was transformative for the EU's tufted carpet market (CN 5703). The EU transitioned from a position of robust net exporter to one of near trade balance, driven by a 64% increase in import value coupled with a 15% decline in export value. This structural shift is underpinned by a near-doubling of import volumes, often at lower unit costs, and a 62% plunge in EU production volumes, indicating a significant contraction of domestic manufacturing.

The supply landscape diversified considerably, with Vietnam emerging as a major new supplier alongside growth from India and the UK post-Brexit. Export markets also shifted, with a sharp reduction in dependency on the UK and increased sales to the US and other regions. Ultimately, the data paints a picture of an EU market that is now more integrated into global supply chains as a consumer, with a smaller, possibly more specialized, but less globally dominant production base. The key challenge for the EU industry remains balancing cost competitiveness with the maintenance of a viable domestic manufacturing footprint in a fiercely competitive global market.