Market evolution: Knotted textile carpets (CN 5701) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of knotted textile carpets and floor coverings (Combined Nomenclature code 5701) for the European Union with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a profound structural shift in the EU's market position, moving from a large net importer to a much more balanced trader. This transformation is characterized by a sharp decline in import volumes and value, a concurrent rise in exports, and significant changes in trade partnerships and production dynamics. The following sections detail the key dynamics driving this ten-year transformation.

1. A Decade of Structural Rebalancing: From Import Dependence to Export Growth

The most striking trend over the decade is the EU's substantial reduction in its trade deficit for knotted carpets, driven by falling imports and rising exports. This fundamentally altered the bloc's trade profile in this product segment.

The trade deficit narrowed dramatically

The EU's trade balance in knotted carpets improved by 66.3% over the period, moving from a deficit of -130.3 million EUR in 2015 to -43.9 million EUR in 2025. This improvement was the direct result of two concurrent movements: a 39.0% decline in import value and a 38.8% increase in export value (General Overview).

Import volumes and values contracted sharply

EU imports of knotted carpets fell consistently throughout the period. The total value of imports decreased from 175.9 million EUR in 2015 to 107.2 million EUR in 2025, a drop of 39.0%. This decline was even steeper in terms of mass quantity, which fell by 27.9% from 9,664.6 tonnes to 6,971.7 tonnes. The fall in value was slightly larger than the fall in volume, indicating a general decrease in average import prices over the decade (General Overview).

Exports increased in value, driven by higher unit prices

In contrast to imports, EU exports of knotted carpets grew from 45.7 million EUR in 2015 to 63.4 million EUR in 2025, a 38.8% increase. While export mass quantity also grew (+19.1%), the value increase was primarily propelled by a 16.5% rise in average export prices (from €33,215 per tonne to €38,709 per tonne). This suggests the EU may be specializing in higher-value segments of the market (General Overview).

2. Shifting Geographies: The Diverging Fortunes of Trade Partners

The rebalancing of EU trade was mirrored by dramatic changes in its key trading partners. Traditional supplying countries lost significant market share, while EU export destinations became more concentrated.

Traditional Asian suppliers saw major declines in EU market share

The value of imports from the EU's largest traditional suppliers fell considerably between 2015 and 2025. Imports from Iran (-53.9%), Türkiye (-70.8%), and Pakistan (-53.0%) experienced the steepest declines. Nepal and Morocco also saw reductions of over 30%. India, while still the largest single supplier, saw its shipments to the EU fall by 27.6% (General Overview).

China emerged as the sole major supplier with significant growth

Contrary to the trend of its peers, China's exports of knotted carpets to the EU grew by 160.0% over the decade, rising from 2.5 million EUR to 6.5 million EUR. This made it the only top-seven supplier to substantially increase its trade with the EU, highlighting a potential shift in sourcing strategies or production specialization (General Overview).

EU export growth was concentrated in high-income, neighboring markets

EU exports surged to key high-income markets. The United Kingdom, the United States, and Switzerland became the bloc's top three export destinations by 2025, with value increases of 174.8%, 66.8%, and 48.2% respectively. This contrasts with declining exports to traditional markets like Iran, Lebanon, and Türkiye, indicating a potential reorientation towards more stable, affluent consumer markets (General Overview).

3. Drivers of Autonomy: Production Decline and Rising Export Specialization

Behind the trade statistics lie key changes in the EU's domestic production landscape and competitive positioning, which help explain the market's evolution.

EU domestic production of knotted carpets collapsed

A critical factor underpinning the trade shift was a severe contraction in EU production. PRODCOM data indicates that EU production volume (in square metres) fell by 52.2% over the period, from 6.7 million m² in 2015 to 3.2 million m² in 2025. Production value also fell, but by a smaller margin (-10.6%), suggesting surviving EU producers may have moved towards higher-value products (Market Structure).

The EU's net import reliance and export propensity transformed

The sharp fall in production, coupled with the decline in imports, led to a massive reduction in the EU's net import reliance, which fell from 81.1% to 37.1%. Concurrently, the export propensity (the share of production exported) surged from 52.2% to 74.9%. This indicates that the remaining EU production base became heavily oriented towards serving international markets rather than the domestic one (Autonomy & Vulnerability).

Intra-EU specialization varied significantly by member state

Specialization analysis for 2025 reveals a starkly uneven landscape. Sweden, Czechia, Italy, Denmark, and Greece showed high relative export specialization (RSCA > 0.49) in knotted carpets. Conversely, many member states like Ireland, Bulgaria, and Lithuania exhibited very low specialization (RSCA near -1), indicating they were almost purely importers. This suggests production is concentrated in a few specialized EU countries (Market Structure).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for knotted textile carpets (CN 5701) underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc evolved from a heavily import-dependent market to a more balanced trader with a strong export focus. This was driven by a precipitous decline in domestic production and a simultaneous contraction in imports from traditional Asian suppliers, partially offset by growing imports from China. The remaining EU production became increasingly export-oriented, targeting affluent, neighboring markets. The result was a significant reduction in the trade deficit and a marked increase in the EU's autonomy in this product segment.