Market evolution: Knotted wool carpets (CN 570110) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the EU's external trade in knotted carpets and textile floor coverings of wool or fine animal hair (Combined Nomenclature code 570110) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers both standard wool knotted carpets (sub-code 57011090) and those containing more than 10% silk by weight (57011010). Over the decade, the EU market has undergone a striking structural transformation: imports have roughly halved in value and volume, while exports have grown strongly, sharply narrowing the trade deficit. The following sections unpack the principal dynamics behind this shift.
General overview on the Trade Dashboard
1. A halving of EU imports driven by volume collapse across all major origins
EU import value fell by nearly half while volumes dropped even more steeply
Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of knotted wool carpets from non-EU countries fell from €143.2 million to €75.6 million, a decline of 47.2%. The contraction was even more pronounced in volume terms: mass imports dropped from 7,792 tonnes to 3,374 tonnes (−56.7%), and the supplementary surface-area measure fell from 2.90 million m² to 1.17 million m² (−59.6%). The fact that value declined less steeply than volume indicates that average import prices rose — from €18,373/t to €22,399/t (+21.9% in mass terms, and from €49.4/m² to €64.5/m² in surface terms, +30.7%). This suggests a shift towards higher-value or higher-density products among the imports that remained.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (€M) | 143.2 | 75.6 | −47.2% |
| Import volume (t) | 7,792 | 3,374 | −56.7% |
| Import surface (m²) | 2,899,464 | 1,170,440 | −59.6% |
| Unit price (€/t) | 18,373 | 22,399 | +21.9% |
| Unit price (€/m²) | 49.4 | 64.5 | +30.7% |
Every major traditional supplier experienced sharp declines — with Türkiye collapsing by over 90%
All seven top non-EU suppliers saw their exports to the EU fall in value over the period, but the magnitude varied dramatically:
| Supplier | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 35.6 | 25.7 | −27.7% |
| Iran | 34.5 | 14.5 | −58.0% |
| Pakistan | 25.0 | 11.7 | −53.2% |
| Türkiye | 21.4 | 1.8 | −91.5% |
| Nepal | 15.3 | 9.6 | −37.2% |
| Morocco | 4.5 | 2.6 | −42.6% |
| Afghanistan | 1.0 | 3.6 | +260.1% |
The most dramatic collapse came from Türkiye, whose exports to the EU plummeted by 91.5% from €21.4 million to just €1.8 million. This supplier also exhibited the highest coefficient of variation (0.71) among import partners, confirming persistent instability. The decline likely reflects a combination of Turkey's macroeconomic turbulence, currency fluctuations, and shifting trade patterns.
Iran, the second-largest origin in 2015, saw its exports to the EU halved (−58.0%). This is consistent with the tightening of EU sanctions and trade restrictions on Iran over the period. Pakistan's decline (−53.2%) and Morocco's (−42.6%) also suggest structural sourcing shifts rather than purely cyclical dynamics.
The sole major exception to the downward trend was Afghanistan, whose exports to the EU grew from €1.0 million to €3.6 million (+260.1%). This may partly reflect re-routing of Afghan-origin carpets through alternative trade channels, or growing niche demand for Afghan handmade products in European markets.
Germany absorbed the largest share of the import decline, but no EU member was spared
The contraction was felt across all major EU importing member states, though Germany's absolute decline was by far the largest:
| EU Member State | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 72.3 | 30.1 | −58.3% |
| Italy | 13.2 | 8.9 | −32.3% |
| France | 8.7 | 9.1 | +3.8% |
| Austria | 9.0 | 4.6 | −48.2% |
| Belgium | 7.2 | 3.6 | −49.6% |
| Sweden | 6.9 | 5.6 | −19.4% |
| Netherlands | 6.6 | 4.8 | −27.4% |
Germany alone accounted for a drop of over €42 million, and its share of EU imports remained dominant but shrank from roughly half to around 40%. France was the only top importer to show a modest increase (+3.8%), suggesting more resilient domestic demand for handmade wool carpets in the French market.
2. EU exports gain value and share, led by a premium-price strategy
Export value rose by 42% on the back of higher prices rather than higher volumes
In contrast to the import contraction, EU exports of knotted wool carpets to non-EU countries grew from €32.6 million to €46.2 million (+42.0%) between 2015 and 2025. However, the quantity in tonnes barely moved — from 929 tonnes to 974 tonnes (+4.9%). The entire value gain was therefore driven by rising unit prices: the average export price per tonne climbed from €35,037 to €47,433 (+35.4%). This is consistent with a strategy of moving towards higher-value, premium-positioned products — especially given that the surface-area exported expanded more substantially, from 303,843 m² to 439,646 m² (+44.7%), while the surface-based price remained roughly stable (€107.1/m² to €105.1/m²).
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€M) | 32.6 | 46.2 | +42.0% |
| Export volume (t) | 929 | 974 | +4.9% |
| Export surface (m²) | 303,843 | 439,646 | +44.7% |
| Unit price (€/t) | 35,037 | 47,433 | +35.4% |
| Unit price (€/m²) | 107.1 | 105.1 | −1.9% |
The divergence between mass-based and surface-based pricing hints at a compositional shift: EU exports may be tilting towards lighter (thinner) but larger-area carpets, where the value per square metre is maintained while the mass per unit decreases.
The UK and Sweden emerged as the fastest-growing export destinations
The United Kingdom became the EU's single largest export market for this product, surging from €3.6 million to €10.4 million (+185.3%). This is the largest absolute and relative gain among the top seven destinations. Post-Brexit trade realignment may have played a role, with UK buyers seeking EU-sourced alternatives or EU exporters developing direct relationships with UK distributors previously served through intra-EU channels.
| Destination | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 3.6 | 10.4 | +185.3% |
| Switzerland | 5.9 | 8.9 | +50.2% |
| United States | 4.8 | 7.8 | +61.7% |
| Norway | 1.3 | 1.7 | +30.2% |
| Türkiye | 0.8 | 1.3 | +53.6% |
| Iran | 2.3 | 0.9 | −58.5% |
| Lebanon | 0.9 | 0.1 | −85.5% |
Switzerland and the United States also showed strong growth, reinforcing the EU's position as a supplier of premium handmade carpets to high-income markets. Conversely, exports to Iran and Lebanon declined sharply, consistent with geopolitical instability and sanctions.
Sweden and Spain emerged as dynamic EU exporting nations, while Denmark receded
Among EU member states, the export landscape shifted considerably:
| EU Member State | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 8.9 | 12.6 | +41.7% |
| Germany | 11.6 | 12.7 | +9.7% |
| Sweden | 2.8 | 7.7 | +172.1% |
| France | 3.3 | 5.1 | +51.6% |
| Spain | 0.3 | 2.2 | +604.0% |
| Denmark | 1.7 | 0.5 | −69.5% |
| Netherlands | 1.3 | 0.8 | −40.0% |
Italy overtook Germany as the EU's largest exporter of knotted wool carpets, with both countries now close to €12.6–12.7 million. Sweden's remarkable rise (+172.1%) is consistent with its high revealed comparative advantage in this product (RSCA of 0.81 in 2025), the highest in the EU. Spain's growth from a very low base (+604.0%) suggests a new entrant gaining scale, possibly linked to Moroccan-origin carpet finishing or re-export activities.
3. A structural transformation: the EU shifts from import dependency to export orientation
Net import reliance collapsed from 81% to 37%, fundamentally altering the EU's trade position
Perhaps the most striking finding in the data is the dramatic reduction in the EU's net import reliance for knotted wool carpets. In 2015, the EU's net import reliance stood at 81.1%, meaning the market was overwhelmingly dependent on non-EU suppliers. By 2025, this figure had fallen to 37.1% — a decline of 54.3 percentage points. The trade deficit narrowed from −€110.6 million to −€29.4 million (+73.5% improvement).
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net import reliance (%) | 81.1 | 37.1 | −54.3 pp |
| Trade balance (€M) | −110.6 | −29.4 | +73.5% |
| Export propensity (%) | 52.2 | 74.9 | +43.7 pp |
| Trade intensity (%) | 91.8 | 89.3 | −2.7 pp |
The export propensity — measuring exports as a share of EU production — rose from 52.2% to 74.9%, indicating that EU producers are increasingly oriented towards external markets. Trade intensity remained high (above 89%), confirming that this remains a heavily traded product category, but the balance of that trade has shifted decisively.
EU production volumes halved but value proved more resilient, signalling a move upmarket
Available production data for the EU shows a stark contraction in physical output: production volume (in m²) fell from 6.69 million m² to 3.20 million m² (−52.2%). However, production value declined more moderately, from €93.2 million to €83.4 million (−10.6%). This divergence implies that the average value per square metre of EU-produced knotted wool carpets roughly doubled, consistent with a shift towards higher-end, artisanal, or design-intensive products.
The EU's silk-containing sub-segment (57011010) provides a telling illustration of this upmarket trajectory. EU exports of silk-blend knotted carpets in surface terms grew from 29,525 m² in 2015 to 81,096 m² in 2025, while their value reached €13.6 million — nearly matching the standard wool sub-segment's per-m² pricing dynamics. This suggests EU manufacturers are leveraging the silk-containing niche to capture higher margins.
Import sourcing became slightly more concentrated while export diversification increased
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose modestly from 1,853 to 1,984 (+7.1%), suggesting a slight narrowing of the supplier base. This is a natural consequence of the collapse of previously large sources like Türkiye and Iran: remaining suppliers — principally India and, increasingly, Afghanistan — account for a larger share.
| HHI metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports — value | 1,853 | 1,984 | +7.1% |
| Imports — volume | 2,365 | 2,779 | +17.5% |
| Exports — value | 882 | 1,297 | +47.1% |
| Exports — volume | 775 | 961 | +24.1% |
Export concentration also rose, by 47.1% in value terms (HHI from 882 to 1,297). This reflects the growing dominance of the UK, US, and Switzerland as the EU's main export clients — fewer markets absorbing a larger share of a growing export base. Despite this concentration, the overall export HHI remains well below the 2,500 threshold typically associated with high concentration, indicating that EU exports are still reasonably diversified.
Conclusion
The EU market for knotted wool carpets (CN 570110) has undergone a profound structural reconfiguration over the 2015–2025 period. Imports from non-EU countries have nearly halved in value and more than halved in volume, with traditional suppliers such as Türkiye (−91.5%) and Iran (−58.0%) experiencing the steepest declines. At the same time, EU exports grew by 42% in value, driven almost entirely by premium pricing rather than volume growth. The net result is a dramatic narrowing of the trade deficit — from €110.6 million to €29.4 million — and a collapse in net import reliance from 81% to 37%.
These dynamics point to a market that is becoming simultaneously smaller in physical terms but more value-dense. EU production volumes fell by half, but production value held relatively steady, signalling a decisive move upmarket. Export propensity surged to nearly 75%, with Sweden, Italy, and Spain emerging as key exporting nations and the UK, US, and Switzerland as primary destination markets. The silk-containing sub-segment (57011010) has gained export prominence, reinforcing the premium positioning trend.
Going forward, the continued narrowing of the trade deficit and the concentration of import sourcing (with Afghanistan as the sole growing supplier) warrant attention from a supply-chain resilience perspective. The export-side concentration towards a handful of wealthy markets, while currently profitable, also introduces dependency risks should demand soften in those economies.