Market evolution: Felt carpets (CN 5704) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in felt carpets and floor coverings (Combined Nomenclature code 5704) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers non-tufted, non-flocked felt floor coverings, including small floor tiles (≤ 0.3 m²), medium tiles (0.3–1 m²), and larger carpets and coverings (> 1 m²). Throughout the period, the EU remained a consistent net exporter, maintaining a trade surplus that ranged from approximately €18 million (2020) to over €73 million (2019). However, beneath this aggregate stability, the decade revealed three powerful structural dynamics: a pivot toward higher unit values in exports, a significant geographic reorientation of trade flows, and a domestic production landscape undergoing both volume expansion and value contraction. Together, these shifts point to an industry that is repositioning itself in the global market—exporting less volume but at higher prices, while importing more lower-cost products to serve domestic demand.

General overview on the Trade Dashboard

1. Volume Down, Value Up: The EU's Upmarket Pivot in Felt Carpet Exports

The most striking macro-level trend over the decade is the divergence between trade volumes and trade values. EU exports of felt carpets lost nearly 28 % of their mass (from 57,377 tonnes in 2015 to 41,378 tonnes in 2025) yet saw their total value decline by only 7.1 % (from €129.1 million to €119.9 million). The mechanism behind this gap is a sustained rise in export unit values: the average price per tonne climbed from €2,249 to €2,897 (+28.8 %). In square-metre terms, the picture is similar—export area fell 12.0 % while the price per square metre edged up 5.6 %. The EU, in other words, has been exporting less felt carpet but commanding a higher price for it.

1.1 Imports tell the mirror-image story

On the import side, the dynamic is reversed. The EU's import volume in tonnes grew 27.6 % (from 9,134 to 11,656 tonnes), while the total import value barely changed (+0.7 %, from €58.9 million to €59.3 million). The result is a sharp decline in import unit values: the average price per tonne fell 21.1 %, from €6,445 to €5,086. The supplementary-unit data makes the trend even clearer: the EU imported 107.4 % more floor area (from 8.0 million m² to 16.5 million m²) at a price per square metre that halved (from €7.38 to €3.58, −51.5 %). This signals growing imports of lower-cost felt carpet products, likely driven by cost-competitive suppliers in Asia and Eastern Europe.

1.2 The 2020 shock and subsequent recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic left a visible mark. In 2020, export volumes fell to their lowest point of the entire period (32,985 tonnes, down 29 % from 2019), while export value dropped to €75.8 million—the trough of the series. The supplementary-unit export area plunged to just 30.4 million m². Recovery was swift but asymmetric: by 2023, export volumes had climbed back to 41,378 tonnes and value to €119.9 million, but volumes never returned to pre-pandemic levels. Instead, the recovery was powered almost entirely by higher unit prices—a pattern consistent with post-pandemic input-cost inflation and a deliberate shift toward higher-margin products.

1.3 Segment-level detail: small tiles in decline

The product heading 5704 bundles three sub-categories. The dominant segment is 570490 (larger carpets and coverings, > 1 m²), which accounted for roughly 96 % of export value in 2025. Within this segment, export volumes fell 19.9 % (from 49,606 to 39,712 tonnes) while value actually rose 3.6 % (from €111.4 million to €115.4 million), confirming the upmarket shift. By contrast, small floor tiles (570410, ≤ 0.3 m²) collapsed: export tonnage dropped 79.7 % (from 7,771 to 1,579 tonnes) and value fell 76.6 % (from €17.7 million to €4.1 million). This segment appears to be largely migrating to lower-cost production outside the EU. Medium tiles (570420, 0.3–1 m²) remained marginal in exports, with volumes too small and erratic to draw firm conclusions.

Product segment breakdown on the Trade Dashboard

2. Geographic Reorientation: Transatlantic Decline, Middle Eastern and Asian Growth

The period 2015–2025 saw substantial shifts in the geographic composition of EU trade in felt carpets. Traditional Western markets lost ground on the export side, while new demand centres emerged in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. On the import side, China nearly doubled its share of EU purchases, even as Switzerland remained the overwhelmingly dominant supplier.

2.1 Export destinations: the retreat from the United States

The United States was the EU's second-largest export market in 2015 (€27.2 million) but fell to €12.9 million by 2025, a decline of 52.8 %. The coefficient of variation for US-bound exports (0.45) confirms this was not merely volatility but a sustained downward trajectory. Possible explanations include tariff pressures, increased domestic US competition, or shifting consumer preferences. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom—the single largest destination—also declined from €44.9 million to €38.6 million (−13.9 %), a drop that accelerated after Brexit.

2.2 The rise of the UAE, Türkiye, and Australia

Against the backdrop of declining Western demand, the United Arab Emirates emerged as the most dynamic growth market, more than doubling from €4.4 million to €9.3 million (+113.4 %). Türkiye (+58.2 %) and Australia (+42.2 %) also posted strong gains. The UAE's growth is consistent with Dubai's role as a regional hub for construction and interior design, while the Australian increase may reflect the country's booming housing market during the period. Russia also grew (+33.3 %), though this trajectory was likely disrupted by EU sanctions following 2022; the data shows Russian exports rising through 2021 before plateauing.

2.3 Import origins: China's rapid ascent and Switzerland's stability

Switzerland dominated EU felt-carpet imports throughout the period, accounting for roughly two-thirds of import value. Swiss imports remained broadly stable (€41.8 million in 2015, €39.7 million in 2025, −5.1 %). The more dramatic story is China: EU imports from China surged 97.3 %, from €5.4 million to €10.6 million, making China the second-largest supplier by 2025. Smaller but proportionally faster growth came from Türkiye (+197.7 %), Serbia (+194.0 %), and India (+71.9 %). The United Kingdom, previously a significant import source (€4.5 million), saw its share collapse by 51.5 % to €2.2 million—a clear Brexit-related effect, as UK-origin goods lost frictionless access to the EU single market.

2.4 Declining concentration in exports, stable concentration in imports

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value fell from 1,782 to 1,361 (−23.7 %), indicating that EU export destinations became meaningfully more diversified over the decade. This is consistent with the loss of dominance by the US and UK and the emergence of multiple smaller but growing markets. Import-side concentration, by contrast, remained broadly stable (HHI 5,248 → 4,867, −7.3 %), reflecting Switzerland's persistent dominance. Notably, import concentration by volume rose (HHI 2,389 → 3,405, +42.5 %), suggesting that while more countries are selling to the EU in value terms, the mass of imports is increasingly concentrated among fewer suppliers.

Partner concentration on the Trade Dashboard

3. Domestic Production Expands in Area While Contracting in Value

EU domestic production data reveals a striking divergence between physical output and its monetary value. The area produced rose from 100 million m² to 149.7 million m² (+49.7 %), yet the total production value fell from €630 million to €357.9 million (−43.2 %). This implies that the average production value per square metre roughly halved over the decade—from €6.30/m² to approximately €2.39/m². While some of this could reflect shifts in the product mix (e.g., growth in higher-volume, lower-value tile production), the magnitude strongly suggests structural price deflation in domestic manufacturing, possibly driven by increased automation, input-cost management, or the reorientation of EU production toward commodity-grade products for export.

3.1 Belgium and the Netherlands anchor EU specialisation

Specialisation data for 2025 identifies Belgium (RSCA 0.43, RCA 2.53) and the Netherlands (RSCA 0.41, RCA 2.39) as the most specialised EU member states in felt-carpet production and export. Together, they accounted for roughly 56 % of EU extra-EU export value in 2025. However, both saw their export values decline over the period: Belgium from €55.0 million to €51.2 million (−6.9 %) and the Netherlands from €43.3 million to €33.0 million (−23.7 %). Their dominance, while still substantial, is gradually eroding.

3.2 Southern and Eastern EU members gain ground

Several smaller EU producers posted striking growth. Italy's exports rose 41.2 % (from €8.5 million to €12.0 million), France's grew 50.4 % (from €7.2 million to €10.8 million), and Poland surged an extraordinary 530.9 % (from €0.2 million to €1.1 million). Romania (RCA 1.85) and Czechia (RCA 1.40) also appeared among the most specialised producers in 2025. This geographic diversification within the EU—away from the traditional Benelux heartland—mirrors the broader pattern of Central and Eastern European manufacturing gaining competitiveness.

3.3 Rising trade intensity signals an increasingly open market

The EU's trade intensity nearly doubled, from 23.6 % to 42.1 % (+78.9 %), while export propensity rose from 18.6 % to 32.7 % (+75.5 %). These are among the highest-salience indicators in the dataset. In practical terms, the felt-carpet market has become far more trade-dependent: a growing share of what the EU produces is destined for export, and a growing share of domestic consumption is served by imports. The net import reliance remained negative throughout (confirming the EU's status as a net exporter), moving from −13.8 % to −19.5 %, but the 2020 trough at −6.0 % demonstrated how quickly the surplus can narrow under stress.

Conclusion

The EU felt-carpet market over 2015–2025 tells the story of a mid-tech manufacturing sector undergoing quiet but profound transformation. The headline numbers—a persistent trade surplus and broadly stable aggregate values—obscure three deeper shifts. First, the EU has pivoted toward higher-value exports: volumes fell, but unit prices rose, indicating a move upmarket or, at minimum, the pass-through of higher production costs. Second, the geographic map of trade has been redrawn: the United States and the United Kingdom lost their former weight, while the UAE, Türkiye, Australia, and China gained prominence. Third, domestic production expanded dramatically in area while halving in value per square metre, suggesting either a shift toward higher-volume commodity output or significant cost efficiencies in manufacturing.

The data also points to emerging vulnerabilities. Import concentration remains high, with Switzerland alone accounting for roughly two-thirds of import value. The rapid growth of Chinese imports—nearly doubling in value and more than doubling in area—raises questions about competitive pressure on EU producers. Meanwhile, the dramatic post-2020 price shocks detected in exports to Chile (abnormality score 37.1, +140.6 %), Morocco (9.3, +105.3 %), and Australia (15.3, +42.0 %) around 2022 hint at the fragility of newer trade relationships in an era of supply-chain disruption. As the industry continues to evolve, the central tension—between the EU's ambition to export high-value products and the gravitational pull of lower-cost imports—will likely define the next phase of market development.