Market evolution: Metal bearing slag ash residues (CN 2620) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of EU trade in products classified under customs code 2620 ("Slag, ash and residues containing metals, arsenic or their compounds, excluding those from iron or steel manufacture") between 2015 and 2025. The data reveals a market characterized by robust expansion in traded volumes, a significant shift in the EU's trade position from near-balance to strong net importer, and notable structural changes among key trading partners and product sub-segments. Price dynamics show a general downward trend despite periodic volatility, suggesting changes in the mix and value of the traded materials.

1. Robust Volume Expansion Amidst Shifting Trade Balances

The period witnessed substantial growth in the physical quantities of CN 2620 products traded by the EU, fundamentally altering its net trade position.

1.1. Dramatic Growth in Physical Flows, Particularly in Imports

Both import and export volumes grew significantly, but import growth far outpaced that of exports. Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 2620 more than doubled in quantity, increasing by 117.7% from 132,306 tonnes to 287,996 tonnes. However, imports surged even more dramatically, growing by 93.4% from 290,991 tonnes to 562,684 tonnes. This asymmetric growth shifted the EU's position, as detailed in the General Overview.

1.2. From Near-Balance to Net Importer

The divergence in growth rates transformed the EU's trade balance. In 2015, the trade balance in value terms was nearly neutral, with a small deficit of -€7.5 million. By 2025, this had swung to a substantial surplus of €26.8 million. However, the underlying physical reality tells a different story: the EU's net import reliance (measured as a share of apparent consumption) increased from 55.1% in 2015 to a peak of 76.9% in 2025, confirming its growing dependency on external sources for these metal-bearing residues (Net Import Reliance).

1.3. Declining Average Prices

Despite increased volumes, the overall value growth was tempered by falling average prices. The average EU export price fell by 27.0% over the period (from €2,506/t to €1,830/t), while the average import price fell by 23.7% (from €1,165/t to €889/t). This general price deflation suggests a possible shift in the composition of traded residues towards lower-value materials or broader market conditions affecting the metals recycling sector.

2. Structural Shifts in Trade Partners and Product Segments

The growth and price trends were underpinned by significant changes in which countries the EU traded with and which specific residue types were in highest demand.

2.1. Geographic Diversification and Rise of New Key Suppliers

The source of EU imports diversified. While the United States remained the largest single supplier (imports grew from €96.2m to €129.2m), the most dynamic growth came from other partners. Türkiye became a major supplier, with imports growing from €3.1m to €52.5m (+1581%). Canada also saw substantial growth (+180%). Conversely, imports from Norway declined significantly (-64.1%). The concentration of imports (HHI) remained moderate but decreased slightly, indicating a less concentrated supplier base (Partners by Value).

2.2. Evolving Export Markets and Concentration

EU exports also reached new destinations. The United Kingdom became a top market (exports grew from €10.3m to €35.7m, +248%). Australia emerged from near-zero to a major partner (€37.0m). The long-standing major market of Norway saw more modest growth (+23.8%). The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports fell sharply by 28.0%, indicating a significant diversification of EU export destinations away from reliance on a few partners (Export Concentration).

2.3. The Dominance and Volatility of Zinc and "Other" Residues

At the product segment level, two categories dominated trade. CN 262099 (miscellaneous metal residues) was the largest segment by value in both imports and exports throughout the period. However, the most striking growth was in CN 262019 (zinc residues, excl. hard zinc spelter). Its import quantity grew from 31,820 tonnes in 2015 to 215,900 tonnes in 2025, becoming the largest segment by volume. Its import value soared to €115.3 million. This segment exhibited high volatility (CV=1.30 for imports), signaling its sensitivity to market shocks (Volatility). The aluminium residue segment (CN 262040) also saw substantial growth in both imports and exports.

3. Internal EU Dynamics and Sectoral Realignments

The external trade trends are reflected in, and driven by, shifts in the production and specialization profiles within the EU's internal market.

3.1. Domestic Production Growth Outpaces Trade Value

EU domestic production of CN 2620 products increased over the period. Production quantity grew by 9.4% (from 1.90 billion kg to 2.08 billion kg) and production value by 21.0% (from €100m to €121m). This indicates growing domestic activity in the sector, though the trade data shows the EU is still a major net receiver of these materials from the rest of the world (Production Volumes).

3.2. Specialization within the EU: Nordic and Southern Focus

Analysis of intra-EU specialization for 2025 reveals distinct roles for member states. Finland and Greece show a very high revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 3.0) in exporting CN 2620 products, indicating strong specialization. Belgium and the Netherlands are also specialized but to a lesser degree, and they are crucial hubs as they rank among the top importers within the EU. In contrast, countries like Ireland and Lithuania show very low specialization, importing these residues primarily for domestic use without a corresponding export focus (Specialisation).

3.3. The Dominant Role of Key EU Member States

Trade is heavily concentrated among a few EU members. In imports, Germany, Belgium, Spain, and Poland are the top four, accounting for the bulk of inward flows. Spain is by far the dominant exporter, responsible for over half of all EU CN 2620 exports by value in 2025 (€357.9m), reflecting its strong role in the processing and re-export of these materials. Sweden and Belgium are the next largest exporters (Reporters by Value).

Conclusion

The EU market for metal-bearing slag, ash, and residues (CN 2620) from 2015 to 2025 underwent a transformative period. It evolved into a structurally larger market characterized by surging physical trade volumes, driven overwhelmingly by import growth. This has cemented the EU's position as a net importer, with import reliance climbing to 77%. The market's geography diversified, with countries like Türkiye and Canada becoming key suppliers, while the UK and Australia emerged as vital export destinations. Internally, the sector grew, and specialization patterns point to an integrated EU value chain, with some members (Spain, Belgium) acting as processing and trade hubs. The concurrent decline in average trade prices, despite the volume boom, points to complex underlying shifts in the composition and pricing of these critical secondary raw materials, which are vital for the circular economy and securing strategic metal supply chains.