Market evolution: Slag and ash from waste incineration (CN 2621) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The EU trade landscape for slag and ash, incl. seaweed ash "kelp"; ash and residues from the incineration of municipal waste (CN 2621) underwent a dramatic transformation between 2015 and 2025. The decade was characterized by a fundamental shift in the EU's trade position, a significant reorientation of sourcing partnerships, and pronounced price volatility, reflecting broader changes in waste management, industrial demand, and global supply chains. This report analyzes these core dynamics based on the available data.

The EU's Reversal from Net Exporter to Major Net Importer

The most striking development is the complete reversal of the EU's trade balance. The bloc transitioned from a modest net exporter to a substantial net importer, driven by a surge in import volumes and values that far outpaced the decline in exports.

The Collapse of the Positive Trade Balance

At the start of the period in 2015, the EU maintained a positive trade balance of €4.43 million. This was built on exports valued at €36.2 million and imports valued at €31.7 million. By 2025, the balance had swung to a deficit of €78.5 million. This shift was not due to a collapse in exports, which decreased by 9.3% in value, but to a 250.6% explosion in the value of imports, which reached €111.3 million.

Volume Growth Fueled the Deficit, Not Just Price Inflation

While import prices rose significantly, the increase in import volume was the primary driver of the growing deficit. Between 2015 and 2025, import volume more than doubled (+106.6%) from 403,314 tonnes to 833,127 tonnes. In contrast, export volume fell by 22.5%, from 1.33 million tonnes to 1.03 million tonnes. This indicates a structural increase in EU demand for these materials that domestic production and traditional export flows could not meet.

Strategic Sourcing Shifts and Evolving Partnership Dynamics

The composition of the EU's trading partners changed profoundly. The import side saw the emergence of new, high-volume suppliers, while export relationships became more concentrated.

Diversification of Import Sources with a Turkish Lead

The list of top import partners reveals a dramatic diversification. Türkiye emerged as the dominant supplier, with imports surging from a negligible €241 in 2015 to €33.9 million in 2025. The United Kingdom also significantly increased its sales to the EU, growing from €12.3 million to €30.4 million (+148.0%). This points to the UK's continued role post-Brexit and the development of new waste-to-resource supply chains from non-traditional partners.

Increased Concentration in Export Markets

While imports became more diverse, the EU's export base became slightly more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value rose by 22.8% from 1,488 to 1,828, indicating moderate concentration. The United Kingdom grew in importance as an export destination, with exports rising 143.7% to €9.1 million, partially offsetting declines to other traditional partners like Switzerland and the United States.

Volatility in Pricing and Notable Supply Shocks

The market was not just defined by volume shifts but also by significant price instability. Several high-impact events stand out in the data.

Extreme Price Volatility in Specific Trade Flows

Volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), was exceptionally high for some partners. Imports from Ukraine (CV: 1.50), Serbia (CV: 1.43), and Norway (CV: 1.08) were highly unpredictable. On the export side, flows to Israel (CV: 2.30) and Türkiye (CV: 1.56) were extremely volatile. This suggests these trade relationships are subject to irregular supply, shifting demand, or logistical disruptions.

Documented Price Shock Events

The data explicitly identifies three major price shock events:

1. UK Imports in 2017: A massive price shock with an abnormality score of 26.6 and a +548.8% price shift, representing 55.8% of import value that year. This may reflect a one-time regulatory change or major project demand.
2. UK Exports in 2018: A subsequent shock in exports to the UK with a +104.1% price increase.
3. Turkish Imports in 2022: A significant shock in imports from Türkiye, with prices jumping by 113.6%, coinciding with the global energy and supply chain crises.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for CN 2621 products fundamentally transformed. The bloc's role shifted from a net exporter to a major net importer, fueled by a doubling of import volumes and a tripling of import values, primarily sourced from Türkiye and the United Kingdom. This structural change likely reflects growing EU demand for secondary raw materials (e.g., from municipal waste incineration residues) for construction and environmental applications, which outstrips domestic supply. The market also demonstrated significant financial vulnerability through price shocks and high volatility in key trade flows, underscoring the need for strategic sourcing and risk management in this evolving sector. Production data indicates that while EU production quantity decreased by 14.7%, its value increased by 10.2%, suggesting a move towards higher-value processing.