Market evolution: Other ores and concentrates (CN 2617) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the trade dynamics of the European Union in "Other ores and concentrates" (CN 2617) between 2015 and 2025. This product category is a residual grouping, covering ores and concentrates of metals not individually classified elsewhere (e.g., antimony), making it a diverse and sometimes volatile market segment. The period under review has been marked by a fundamental transformation: a collapse in traded physical volumes coupled with a surge in unit values. This shift, alongside a significant restructuring of trade partners and a growing domestic production base, has reshaped the EU's trade profile from one of high import dependence to a position of greater, though still incomplete, self-sufficiency. The full scope and definitions of CN 2617 can be explored here.
1. From Volume to Value: The Decoupling of Physical and Monetary Trade Flows
The most striking feature of the 2015-2025 period is the dramatic divergence between the quantity of ore traded and the monetary value of that trade. While the EU's physical import needs have plummeted, the value of remaining imports has proven more resilient, pointing to a market increasingly driven by price rather than bulk volume.
The Evaporating Import Volume
EU imports of CN 2617 ores fell precipitously over the decade. The volume of imports decreased from 10,140 tonnes in 2015 to just 1,924 tonnes in 2025, a decline of -81.0%. This collapse was not linear but featured extreme volatility, with a peak of 23,845 tonnes in 2018 followed by a swift and deep contraction. This suggests a major structural change in the EU's sourcing or consumption patterns for these specific ores, possibly linked to the depletion of specific ore bodies, strategic shifts by consuming industries, or a rapid increase in domestic or alternative supply.
The Resilience and Inflation of Unit Prices
Despite the volume collapse, the value of imports declined at a much slower pace (-35.0%), from €54.4 million in 2015 to €35.4 million in 2025. This resilience is entirely explained by a dramatic increase in import prices. The average import price surged by +242.8%, from €5,363 per tonne in 2015 to €18,384 per tonne in 2025. This price inflation reflects a global commodity supercycle, supply chain disruptions, and potentially a shift in the composition of imports towards higher-value, lower-volume specialty materials. A notable price shock is identified for imports from Russia in 2021, with an abnormal price increase of 129.8%.
The Sub-Segment Divergence
The two primary sub-segments of CN 2617—antimony ores (261710) and the residual "other" category (261790)—tell different stories. The "other" category (261790) drove the overall volume collapse, with imports falling from over 8,000 tonnes to just 279 tonnes. In contrast, antimony ore imports (261710) remained relatively stable in volume, hovering between 1,500 and 2,100 tonnes. The value growth, however, has been spectacular for antimony ores, with their import value increasing by +261.9% over the period, culminating in a price per tonne exceeding €21,000 in 2025. This highlights the distinct market dynamics and strategic importance of antimony compared to the broader, less-defined "other" category.
| Sub-Segment | Import Quantity (t) | Import Value (€) | Price (€/t) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2025 | 2015 | 2025 | 2015 | 2025 | |
| 261790 (Other) | 8,022 | 279 | 44,841,810 | 811,855 | 5,590 | 2,904 |
| 261710 (Antimony) | 2,119 | 1,645 | 9,546,298 | 34,558,905 | 4,505 | 21,010 |
| Total CN 2617 | 10,140 | 1,924 | 54,387,108 | 35,370,760 | 5,363 | 18,384 |
| (Source: Product Segment Breakdown section) |
2. Geographic Reorientation: The Rise and Fall of Trade Partners
The contraction in trade volumes has been accompanied by a radical reshuffling of the EU's key trading partners, leading to higher market concentration and volatility.
The Transformation of Import Sources
The EU's import sources have undergone a complete transformation. Traditional major suppliers like Bolivia (value -95.0%), Mexico (-99.9%), and Australia (-99.2%) have seen their trade with the EU almost vanish. In stark contrast, Türkiye has emerged as the dominant supplier, with its export value to the EU growing by +377.1% to become the single largest partner by value in 2025. Ukraine also saw a dramatic, though smaller, increase (+9545.1%). This shift suggests a reorientation of EU sourcing towards geographically closer or more politically aligned partners.
| Top Import Partners | Value (€) 2015 | Value (€) 2025 | % Change | Share of EU Imports (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 6,633,580 | 31,648,054 | +377.1% | ~89.5% |
| Australia | 2,504,099 | 21,158 | -99.2% | <0.1% |
| Bolivia | 33,982,824 | 1,694,920 | -95.0% | ~4.8% |
| Ukraine | 2,153 | 207,686 | +9545.1% | ~0.6% |
| (Source: Top partners by value) |
Increased Concentration and Vulnerability in Imports
The rise of Türkiye as a near-monopolistic supplier has drastically increased the concentration of EU imports. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value nearly doubled, from 4,223 in 2015 to 8,042 in 2025, indicating a highly concentrated market. This concentration creates potential supply chain vulnerabilities, though this is partially offset by the EU's declining import needs overall.
Volatile and Niche Export Markets
EU exports of CN 2617 are minimal in volume but have grown in value (+160.2%). Export destinations are highly volatile and niche. Chile became the largest single export market in 2025 (€1.7 million), following a massive price shock in 2023 where the export value share spiked to 76.1% of total EU exports. Other markets like South Korea (+9106.2%) and Norway (+6679.5%) have seen high growth from a low base. The extreme volatility in export markets (high coefficient of variation for most partners) suggests trade is sporadic and likely tied to specific projects or re-exports rather than stable flows.
3. Increasing EU Self-Sufficiency and Industrial Specialization
A key driver behind the declining import volumes is the substantial growth in EU domestic production, which has improved the bloc's trade balance and reduced net import reliance.
Surging Domestic Production
EU production of ores and concentrates under CN 2617 has expanded significantly. Production quantity increased by +377.7% from 5.5 million kg in 2015 to 26.5 million kg in 2025. The growth in production value was even more pronounced (+913.6%). This indicates either the opening or expansion of mining operations within the EU for these specific ores, or a major increase in the recovery and processing of these materials from secondary sources.
Improved Trade Balance and Reduced Import Dependency
The combination of falling import volumes and rising domestic production has led to a marked improvement in the EU's trade balance for CN 2617. While the balance remained negative (a net import position) throughout the period, the deficit shrank by +37.6% from -€53.7 million in 2015 to -€33.5 million in 2025. Consequently, the EU's net import reliance fell from a peak of 93.5% in 2015 to 34.5% in 2025, a reduction of -63.1 percentage points. This represents a significant shift towards greater autonomy in this commodity segment.
Shifting Industrial Specialization within the EU
Production is concentrated in specific Member States. In 2025, Spain and the Netherlands exhibited the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in producing these ores. Conversely, large economies like Germany and Italy showed very low specialization (low RCA), being net consumers rather than producers. This intra-EU specialization suggests a geographic concentration of mining and processing activities related to these specific ore types.
Conclusion
The EU's trade in "Other ores and concentrates" (CN 2617) between 2015 and 2025 has been characterized by a fundamental transformation. The most significant trend is the decoupling of physical trade from its monetary value; a collapse in import volumes has been overshadowed by soaring unit prices, indicating a market focused on high-value, scarce materials rather than bulk commodities. Concurrently, the geographic landscape of trade has been redrawn, with Türkiye replacing traditional suppliers like Bolivia and Australia, leading to a more concentrated and potentially vulnerable import structure for the remaining needs. However, the most consequential development is the dramatic increase in EU domestic production, which has substantially reduced the bloc's net import reliance and improved its trade balance. This shift points towards a strategic move towards greater resource autonomy in this segment, though the export market remains niche and highly volatile.