Market evolution: Metal-bearing residues (CN 262099) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in metal-bearing residues classified under Combined Nomenclature code 262099 between 2015 and 2025. The product category, a residual class for slag, ash, and residues containing various metals, is critical for the circular economy and secondary raw material supply. The period was characterized by significant structural shifts, transforming the EU's position from a net importer to a major net exporter. This analysis, based on annual trade data, identifies and interprets the main dynamics in volume, value, partner concentration, and market structure.

1. Divergence in Trade Volumes and Values: The Volume-Driven Export Surge

Over the 2015-2025 period, EU trade flows for CN 262099 evolved differently for exports and imports. Export volumes grew dramatically, while import volumes remained relatively stable, leading to a fundamental shift in the EU's trade balance and pricing.

1.1. Exports: Volume growth with declining unit values

EU exports of metal-bearing residues underwent substantial volume expansion. Export quantities increased by 149.2%, from 39,645 tonnes in 2015 to a peak of 98,800 tonnes in 2025 (General Overview). This surge occurred despite a 45.8% decline in the average export price per tonne, which fell from €6,768 to €3,668. The divergence suggests that increased EU exports were driven by competitive pricing or a shift towards larger volumes of lower-value residues within this product group.

1.2. Imports: Stable volumes with price recovery

In contrast, import volumes showed a modest increase of only 5.8%, rising from 113,583 tonnes in 2015 to 120,222 tonnes in 2025. Import values, however, grew by 27.3% to €159.6 million, indicating a recovery in import prices. The average import price per tonne increased by 20.2% over the decade, reaching €1,327. This price recovery, alongside stable volumes, points to a different market dynamic for imported residues compared to exported ones.

1.3. A strengthened net export position

The combination of surging export volumes and stable import volumes caused the EU to flip from a net importer to a strong net exporter by value. The trade balance swung from a €142.9 million surplus in 2015 to a €202.8 million surplus in 2025. The net import reliance percentage, which measures the share of domestic consumption met by imports, rose to 76.9% by 2025, indicating the EU became a major external supplier of these residues.

2. Shifting Geographic Dependencies and Market Concentration

The geographic composition of EU trade in CN 262099 changed markedly, leading to increased concentration in export markets and greater volatility in import sources.

2.1. Exports: Dominance of key Asian partners

EU exports became heavily concentrated in a few key destinations. Japan and South Korea consistently absorbed the bulk of exports. In 2025, they accounted for combined exports worth €281.7 million (top_partners_by_value (exports)). This high concentration is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports, which, while declining from 4,333 in 2015 to 3,812 in 2025, remains high. Canada emerged as a rapidly growing partner, with exports increasing from €0.8 million to €48.2 million.

2.2. Imports: Volatile sources and geopolitical impacts

Import patterns were more volatile. Traditional partners like Norway and Singapore saw their exports to the EU collapse. Norway's share fell from €25.6 million in 2015 to €3.8 million in 2025, a 85.4% decrease. Singapore's trade nearly disappeared (-99.7%). This volatility is captured in the high coefficient of variation (CV) for these partners (volatility_bars). Conversely, Canada, South Africa, and the United States grew in importance as import sources, with Canada's share rising by 182.9%. The HHI for import value increased significantly from 1,454 to 2,376, indicating rising concentration and potential supply risk.

3. Structural Shifts in EU Production and Specialization

Underlying the trade dynamics were changes within the EU's production base and specialization patterns, which explain the region's growing export capacity.

3.1. Domestic production growth and stability

EU production of metal-bearing residues (as captured by the related Prodcom code 38.32.29.40) increased in both volume and value. Production quantities grew by 9.4% to 2,080 million kg, while production value increased by 21.0% to €121.0 million between the first and last available years (production_quantity). This domestic production growth provided the foundation for the export surge, reducing the need for imports to meet industrial demand.

3.2. Diverging specialization among member states

Specialization in producing or trading CN 262099 residues is highly uneven across the EU. In 2025, Finland exhibited an extremely high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.97, with its exports of these residues representing 70.9% of its total exports for this product category (most_specialised_reporters). This indicates a strong niche specialization. In contrast, countries like Ireland and Luxembourg showed no export specialization (RSCA near -1). This divergence suggests that specific industrial activities in certain member states generate significant exportable surpluses of these residues.

3.3. Changing product mix within the 262099 code

The composition of traded residues within the 262099 code itself evolved. For imports, titanium-containing residues (CN 26209960) were consistently the largest segment by volume, peaking at 233,775 tonnes in 2022. For exports, the catch-all sub-code 26209995 (other residues) dominated, with its volume growing from 39,630 tonnes in 2015 to 98,596 tonnes in 2025. This indicates that the EU's export strength lies in this broad category of residues, rather than in the specific nickel, tin, or titanium sub-categories (Product Segment Breakdown).

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU market for metal-bearing residues (CN 262099) underwent a profound transformation. The most significant dynamic was the explosive growth in export volumes, which more than doubled, turning the EU into a consistent net exporter. This was achieved despite falling export prices, suggesting competitive pressures or a shift in the product mix. Concurrently, import volumes stabilized, but import sources became more volatile and concentrated, exposing the EU to potential supply chain risks, particularly concerning geopolitical shifts affecting partners like Norway and Russia.

These trade developments were supported by modest growth in domestic EU production and highly uneven specialization among member states, with Finland emerging as a major niche exporter. The data indicates that the EU's strengthened position is largely driven by a broad category of residues (CN 26209995), underscoring the importance of this residual code in the regional circular economy for metals. Future monitoring should focus on the sustainability of export demand from key Asian partners and the stability of diversified import sources.