Market evolution: Insulated wires and cables (CN 8544) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade performance of the European Union in insulated wires and cables (CN 8544) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading encompasses a broad family of goods — from winding wire and coaxial cable to automotive wiring harnesses, low- and high-voltage conductors, and optical fibre cables — that are fundamental to the energy, telecommunications, automotive, and construction sectors.

The decade under review has been anything but static. Surging global demand for electrification, the rollout of fibre-optic and 5G infrastructure, the automotive industry's transition to electric vehicles, and successive supply-chain disruptions (COVID-19, the energy crisis, geopolitical tensions) have all left deep imprints on EU trade flows. What emerges from the data is a picture of a market that has grown substantially in monetary terms, yet one in which the EU's structural position has shifted decisively toward greater import dependence.

1. A Decade of Surging Demand and a Widening Trade Gap

EU imports have grown far more rapidly than exports

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU extra-EU imports of CN 8544 products rose from €10.6 billion to €23.7 billion, an increase of 124.1%. Over the same period, EU exports grew from €9.7 billion to €14.3 billion, an increase of 47.1%. While both flows expanded, imports grew nearly three times as fast in value terms.

Source: General Overview

Volume tells a more nuanced story

Import volumes surged by 86.5% (from 838,000 tonnes to 1.56 million tonnes), confirming that the increase in import value was not merely a price effect. By contrast, export volumes actually fell by 4.9% (from 952,000 to 905,000 tonnes), meaning that the entire 47% increase in export value was driven by price appreciation rather than higher quantities shipped abroad. Average export unit values rose by 54.6% (from €10,239/t to €15,832/t), while import prices increased by a more modest 20.1% (from €12,600/t to €15,138/t).

The trade deficit expanded tenfold

The EU trade balance deteriorated from a modest deficit of −€0.8 billion in 2015 to a deficit of −€9.3 billion in 2025. The net import reliance ratio climbed from essentially zero (0.5%) to over 14%. This means that the EU has shifted from being roughly self-sufficient in this product family to requiring substantial net inflows from the rest of the world.

The widening gap was not uniform across the period. The most pronounced deterioration occurred from 2020 onward, coinciding with post-pandemic demand recovery, the energy-price shock of 2022, and accelerating investment in grid infrastructure and EV supply chains.

2. Geographic Reorientation: The Rise of Neighbouring and Near-Shore Suppliers

Morocco, Serbia, and Türkiye have emerged as dominant import sources

While China remained the single largest extra-EU supplier (€4.5 billion in 2025, up 116.5% from 2015), the most striking import growth has come from EU neighbouring countries. Morocco's exports to the EU grew by 144.3% to €4.5 billion, making it virtually level with China by 2025. Serbia saw the most dramatic expansion: a 433.1% increase to €1.8 billion, turning it into the EU's fifth-largest supplier from a relatively modest base. Türkiye also expanded strongly (+169.2% to €1.8 billion), and Tunisia nearly doubled (+114.8% to €2.9 billion).

Source: Top partners by value

This geographic pattern is consistent with the EU's broader strategy of supply-chain diversification and "near-shoring." Morocco, Tunisia, and Serbia all benefit from preferential trade agreements, proximity, and — particularly in the case of automotive wiring harnesses — well-established manufacturing clusters that serve European original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

The United States has become the EU's second-largest export market

On the export side, the most notable shift has been the explosive growth of shipments to the United States, which rose by 203.3% — from €0.8 billion to €2.5 billion — making the US the EU's second-largest non-EU export destination after the United Kingdom. This likely reflects both the US infrastructure investment cycle and the Inflation Reduction Act's stimulus for clean-energy and grid-related products. The United Kingdom, while still the top export market at €2.0 billion, saw its position stagnate (−2.9%) after the post-Brexit trade adjustment.

Market concentration remained broadly stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports edged up slightly from 1,063 to 1,077 (+1.3%), while the export HHI declined marginally from 744 to 717 (−3.6%). Both values remain well below the 2,500 threshold that signals high concentration, indicating that the EU's trade in this product family is diversified across many partners. Nonetheless, the simultaneous rise of Morocco and Serbia to near-parity with China suggests a gradual reshaping of the supplier landscape rather than a simple broadening of existing relationships.

3. Product Composition, Production, and Structural Vulnerability

Automotive wiring harnesses dominate imports; high-voltage cables show the fastest growth

The product segment breakdown reveals that the single largest import sub-category is 854430 — ignition and wiring sets for vehicles, aircraft, and ships, which accounted for €11.3 billion in 2025, up from €4.8 billion in 2015 (+134% in value). This reflects the deep integration of European automotive manufacturing with North African, Turkish, and Western Balkan suppliers of wiring harnesses — labour-intensive components that are frequently produced in lower-cost neighbouring countries.

The fastest-growing segment in import terms, however, is 854460 — insulated conductors for voltages above 1,000 V. Import volumes in this category rose from 35,000 tonnes to 227,000 tonnes — a 546% increase — while the value grew from €341 million to €1.5 billion (+343%). This dramatic expansion is consistent with the massive investment in electricity grid reinforcement, renewable-energy connections, and cross-border transmission infrastructure that has characterised the EU's energy transition over the period.

Source: Product segment breakdown

EU domestic production has expanded strongly

The EU's own production of CN 8544 products grew by 115.7% in quantity (from 2.7 billion kg to 5.8 billion kg) and by 350.5% in value (from €9.8 billion to €44.3 billion). This indicates both a significant volume expansion and a compositional shift toward higher-value output (the unit value of production roughly doubled). The fact that domestic production value grew so much faster than both import and export values suggests that the EU has been investing in higher-value-added segments — notably optical fibre cables, high-voltage conductors, and specialised connectors — even as it continues to source labour-intensive components externally.

Central and Eastern European member states show the strongest specialisation

An analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) across EU member states in 2025 shows that Romania (RCA 5.20), Hungary (3.33), Czechia (2.18), and Slovakia (2.13) are the most specialised exporters of these products. This pattern is consistent with the well-known concentration of automotive wiring-harness production and cable manufacturing in Central and Eastern Europe, where lower labour costs, proximity to German OEMs, and EU structural-fund investment have created strong manufacturing clusters.

By contrast, large economies like the Netherlands (RCA 0.31) and Belgium (RCA 0.28) show negative specialisation, reflecting their roles as trading and logistics hubs rather than as primary producers for this product family.

Trade intensity has nearly doubled, signalling growing external dependence

The trade intensity ratio — the combined share of imports and exports relative to apparent consumption — rose from 28.6% to 54.2% over the decade. The export propensity (exports as a share of production) also nearly doubled, from 16.4% to 32.0%. These figures indicate that while the EU's wire and cable industry has become more export-oriented, it has simultaneously become far more reliant on imported inputs and competing products — a structural vulnerability that was exposed during the post-COVID supply-chain disruptions and the 2022 energy-price shock.

A detected price shock in imports from Türkiye in 2022 (abnormality score 2.3, unit-value increase of 63.3%) and a near-total collapse of EU exports to Russia in 2025 (−98.2%, linked to sanctions) illustrate the types of shocks to which this increasingly trade-dependent sector is exposed.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in insulated wires and cables has been characterised by three converging dynamics: strong demand growth driven by electrification, digitalisation, and automotive transformation; a widening trade deficit as import volumes (especially from Morocco, Serbia, Türkiye, and China) grew far faster than export volumes; and a structural shift toward greater import dependence, with net import reliance rising from near-zero to over 14%.

At the product level, the automotive wiring-harness segment (854430) remains the single largest trade category, but the most dramatic growth has occurred in high-voltage conductors (854460), reflecting the EU's energy-transition investment cycle. EU domestic production has expanded robustly in both volume and value, yet it has not kept pace with the surge in demand, necessitating a growing import bridge.

Looking ahead, the key question is whether the EU can narrow the trade gap by scaling up domestic capacity — particularly in high-growth segments such as high-voltage cables and optical fibre — or whether structural cost advantages in neighbouring countries will continue to draw production offshore. The data suggests that both trends will coexist: the EU will likely retain and expand its position in high-value, technology-intensive sub-segments while remaining heavily reliant on external suppliers for volume-intensive and labour-intensive components.