Market evolution: Connector cables (CN 854442) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of Combined Nomenclature code 854442 — electric conductors for a voltage ≤ 1,000 V, insulated, fitted with connectors, n.e.s. — covering EU trade with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. This product category encompasses a broad range of connector cables, from appliance cord sets and extension cords to wiring harnesses used in telecommunications and other industrial applications. The code bundles two subcategories: telecom conductors (85444210) and non-telecom conductors (85444290).

Over the decade, the EU's market for connector cables has expanded substantially in value terms, driven by growing demand across automotive, electronics, renewable energy, and data infrastructure sectors. However, this growth has been accompanied by a widening trade deficit, increasing import reliance on China, and rising unit prices — all of which point to structural shifts in the EU's position within global supply chains for these critical components.

A Widening Trade Deficit Fueled by Rising Import Volumes and Prices

EU imports nearly doubled in value while exports grew more modestly

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of connector cables rose from €2.93 billion to €5.30 billion, an increase of 81.3%. Over the same period, exports grew from €2.14 billion to €3.27 billion (+53.1%). The result was a trade deficit that widened from €787 million in 2015 to over €2.03 billion in 2025 — a deterioration of 158%. The deficit peaked at approximately €2.47 billion in 2022, coinciding with the post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and surging raw material costs.

Import volumes grew strongly, but price increases amplified the value surge

The volume of EU imports rose from 193,544 tonnes in 2015 to 260,660 tonnes in 2025 (+34.7%), peaking at 281,308 tonnes in 2022. Crucially, the rise in import value (+81.3%) far outpaced the rise in volume, reflecting a significant price increase from €15,114/t to €20,350/t (+34.6%). Export prices rose even more steeply, from €29,084/t to €46,191/t (+58.8%), suggesting that EU exports are increasingly concentrated in higher-value, specialised cable assemblies.

The divergence between export and import unit prices — with EU exports consistently priced at roughly double the import level — reflects a pattern where the EU imports large volumes of standardised, lower-cost connector cables (often from Asia) and exports higher-specification products, including advanced wiring harnesses for the automotive sector and industrial equipment.

Net import reliance has climbed steadily

The EU's net import reliance for connector cables rose from 23.1% in 2015 to 31.7% in 2025, peaking at 36.1% in 2022. This means that nearly a third of the EU's apparent consumption of connector cables is now sourced from outside the bloc. The trade intensity ratio — the combined share of imports and exports relative to production plus imports — stood at 86.3% in 2025, confirming the extremely trade-oriented nature of this market. Meanwhile, export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 60.6% to 70.4%, indicating that EU-based producers are increasingly oriented towards export markets.

China's Dominance in EU Imports and the Emergence of Nearshoring Alternatives

China accounts for roughly half of all EU imports

China has remained by far the EU's largest supplier of connector cables throughout the period. Imports from China grew from €1.33 billion in 2015 to €2.65 billion in 2025 (+98.5%), and peaked at €3.16 billion in 2022. China's share of total EU imports in value terms remains around 50%, reflecting the country's dominant position in global cable and wire harness manufacturing.

The concentration of EU import origins, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), rose from 2,363 to 2,683 over the period — confirming that imports have become more, not less, concentrated on a small number of suppliers. This level indicates moderate concentration, but the upward trend underscores the EU's growing dependence on a narrow set of origins, with China at the centre.

Several neighbouring countries have emerged as fast-growing suppliers

While China's absolute dominance is unchallenged, a notable feature of the 2015–2025 period is the rapid rise of several countries on the EU's periphery as import sources. Serbia stands out dramatically: imports grew from €26 million to €295 million (+1,013%), making it the EU's third-largest extra-EU supplier by 2025. Türkiye similarly expanded from €56 million to €200 million (+258%), and Morocco from €158 million to €259 million (+64.2%). Tunisia, already a significant supplier in 2015 at €285 million, maintained a stable position around the same level.

This pattern is consistent with nearshoring strategies pursued by European automotive OEMs and their tier-1 suppliers. Wiring harnesses — a major component of CN 854442 — are labour-intensive products, and manufacturers have increasingly established production in North Africa (Tunisia, Morocco) and the Western Balkans (Serbia) to serve EU assembly plants at lower cost while reducing the supply chain distance from East Asia. Serbia's extraordinary growth likely also reflects its EU candidacy status and associated trade facilitation measures.

EU export destinations have shifted away from the United Kingdom towards the United States

On the export side, the most dramatic shift has been the decline of the United Kingdom as the EU's top destination. Exports to the UK fell from €587 million in 2015 to €355 million in 2025 (−39.5%), a decline that accelerated after Brexit. The volatility of UK-bound exports was notably high (coefficient of variation of 0.35), reflecting the disruption caused by the UK's departure from the single market and customs union.

Conversely, exports to the United States surged from €263 million to €590 million (+124.8%), making the US the EU's largest extra-EU export market by 2025. Other notable growth markets include Morocco (+182.7%), Switzerland (+61.4%), and Tunisia (+98.7%). Meanwhile, EU export concentration has actually decreased (HHI from 1,120 to 711), indicating that exports have become more geographically diversified — a positive development for resilience.

European Production Growth and Central European Specialisation

EU production expanded significantly, particularly in volume terms

EU production of connector cables grew from 414 million kg (approximately 414,000 tonnes) in 2015 to 758 million kg in 2025 (+83.1% by volume). Production value rose more moderately, from €3.41 billion to €4.28 billion (+25.6%), indicating that the expansion has been driven more by volume growth than by price increases — likely reflecting the ramp-up of large-scale, labour-intensive wiring harness assembly plants in Central and Eastern Europe.

The sharp volume growth outpacing value growth also suggests that a growing share of EU-based production consists of intermediate products (e.g., wire harnesses) destined for re-export or integration into final goods, rather than finished consumer products.

Central and Eastern European countries dominate export specialisation

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RSCA) in 2025 shows that the most specialised EU member states in connector cable exports are:

Romania, Czechia, and Hungary are the standout performers, all with RCA values well above 2. This is consistent with the well-documented pattern of automotive wiring harness production relocating to Central and Eastern Europe, where companies such as Yazaki, Leoni, and Dräxlmaier operate major facilities. Romania's high specialisation (RSCA 0.66) is particularly notable, reflecting its role as one of the EU's leading hubs for harness assembly.

At the other end of the spectrum, Mediterranean and peripheral economies — Cyprus (RSCA −0.98), Malta (−0.96), Greece (−0.81), Portugal (−0.58), and Ireland (−0.53) — show little or no specialisation in this product.

The non-telecom segment dominates both imports and exports

Breaking the data down by sub-product, the non-telecom segment (85444290) accounts for the overwhelming majority of trade. In 2025, non-telecom imports stood at 241,103 tonnes (€4.78 billion) versus just 18,968 tonnes (€517 million) for the telecom segment (85444210). However, the telecom sub-product commands significantly higher unit prices: €27,228/t for imports and €56,681/t for exports, compared with €19,844/t and €45,582/t respectively for the non-telecom segment.

A notable trend is the steady decline in EU export volumes of telecom connector cables — from 9,565 tonnes in 2015 to just 3,885 tonnes in 2025 (−59.4%) — even as their unit value rose to €56,681/t. This suggests that EU exporters have moved upmarket in this sub-segment, focusing on higher-specification products while ceding volume to non-EU competitors.

Conclusion

The EU market for connector cables (CN 854442) underwent significant structural change between 2015 and 2025. Import demand grew far faster than exports, widening the trade deficit to over €2 billion and pushing net import reliance above 30%. China consolidated its position as the dominant supplier, accounting for roughly half of all imports by value, while the overall concentration of import origins increased — a pattern that raises supply chain resilience concerns.

At the same time, several positive developments are visible. EU export destinations have diversified (HHI falling from 1,120 to 711), reducing dependence on any single market. The growth of nearshoring suppliers — notably Serbia, Türkiye, and Morocco — offers potential for medium-term supply diversification away from China. EU production volumes grew by 83%, underpinned by Central European specialisation in automotive wire harnesses. And the rising unit value of EU exports, particularly in the telecom sub-segment, suggests that European producers are competing on quality and complexity rather than price.

The key challenge for the decade ahead will be managing the tension between continued import dependence on China for cost-competitive connector cables and the EU's strategic interest in building more resilient, geographically diversified supply chains — particularly as electrification, data infrastructure expansion, and the green transition drive further demand growth for these essential components.