Market evolution: Ignition wiring sets (CN 854430) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in ignition wiring sets and other wiring sets for vehicles, aircraft or ships (Combined Nomenclature code 854430) over the period 2015–2025. The product falls under the broader category of insulated wire, cable and other electric conductors and is a critical component of the European automotive supply chain, with production closely linked to PRODCOM code 29.31.10.00.

Over this decade, the EU's trade in this product underwent a dramatic structural transformation. While export values remained relatively stable, the quantity exported collapsed by over 60%, and the EU's trade deficit in wiring sets more than tripled from €2.8 billion to €9.3 billion. The net import reliance ratio surged from 5.5% to 49.7%, signalling a fundamental shift in the geography of production. These dynamics reflect deep changes in European automotive manufacturing, the rise of North African and Western Balkan sourcing platforms, and an accelerated offshoring trend that has reshaped the EU's competitive position in this sector.

I. The EU's growing import dependency and ballooning trade deficit

Import value more than doubled while export value stagnated

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 854430 over the 2015–2025 period is the widening gap between imports and exports. The overall trade figures reveal the following trajectory:

EU import value grew by 134%, driven by both higher volumes (+64%) and rising unit prices (+42%). Export value, by contrast, was essentially flat, masking a profound volume collapse (−62%) that was offset only by a steep increase in export unit values (+166%). The EU's trade deficit consequently worsened from €2.8 billion to €9.3 billion.

Net import reliance approached 50%, reflecting structural vulnerability

The net import reliance ratio — which measures the share of domestic consumption met by net imports — surged from 5.5% in 2015 to 49.7% in 2025, an eightfold increase. This means that by 2025, nearly half of the wiring sets consumed in the EU were sourced from outside the bloc. At the same time, trade intensity (the ratio of total trade to domestic production) rose from 27.6% to 65.9%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 13.6% to 24.1%. Together, these indicators confirm that the EU wiring-set sector has become deeply integrated into global — and especially nearshore — supply chains, with growing reliance on non-EU suppliers.

Production volumes declined even as values rose

EU production volumes edged down by 3.8% over the period (from 716,893 tonnes to 690,000 tonnes), while production values increased by 43.1% (from €5.94 billion to €8.50 billion). This divergence points to a shift towards higher-value, more complex wiring harnesses — often for electric and hybrid vehicles — while simpler, higher-volume production has increasingly been relocated to lower-cost neighbouring regions. The production peak in volume terms (1,358,828 tonnes) and in value terms (€8.80 billion) was reached before 2025, suggesting some cyclical softening in the final year of the dataset.

II. North Africa and the Western Balkans as the new sourcing platforms

Morocco and Tunisia dominated import growth

The most important structural change in the partner composition of EU imports was the consolidation of Morocco and Tunisia as the EU's principal suppliers. Combined, these two countries accounted for €5.6 billion in imports by 2025 — nearly half of total extra-EU imports.

Morocco's rise is consistent with the country's emergence as a major automotive manufacturing hub, hosting factories of leading European OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers. Tunisia plays a similar role, particularly for French and Italian carmakers. Both countries benefit from geographical proximity, free-trade agreements with the EU, and competitive labour costs — factors that have made them natural nearshoring destinations for labour-intensive wiring harness production.

Serbia and North Macedonia experienced the fastest growth rates

Among the EU's import partners, Serbia (+406%) and North Macedonia (+212%) recorded the most rapid expansion. Serbia's imports grew from €279 million to €1.41 billion, while North Macedonia's rose from €215 million to €670 million. These countries are at different stages of EU accession, and their integration into European automotive supply chains has been facilitated by investment incentives, proximity to Central European assembly plants, and the Stabilisation and Association Agreement framework. Moldova (+167%) also showed strong growth, reaching €425 million — a sign of deepening supply-chain linkages with Eastern Europe.

Türkiye was the only major partner to see declining imports

In contrast to the broader trend, EU imports from Türkiye declined by 19%, from €339 million to €273 million. Türkiye had previously been a significant supplier, but its share appears to have been displaced by faster-growing North African and Western Balkan competitors. The volatility coefficient for imports from Türkiye (0.42) was also among the highest of the main partners, suggesting instability in trade flows.

EU export markets shifted away from the UK and towards the United States

On the export side, the most notable development was a sharp reorientation of destination markets:

The United States became the EU's largest single export destination, growing from €194 million to €606 million (+212%). This likely reflects exports of higher-specification wiring sets for premium European vehicles assembled in North America. Exports to the United Kingdom, historically the EU's largest export market for this product, fell by 34% — a decline that accelerated after Brexit, with the volatility coefficient for UK exports reaching 0.53, the second-highest among major partners. Exports to Ukraine collapsed by 88% (from €93 million to €11 million), reflecting the severe disruption of trade flows following the Russian invasion in 2022.

III. Shifting production centres and growing market concentration within the EU

Central and Eastern European countries emerged as the EU's wiring-set specialisation cluster

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage in 2025 shows that EU production of CN 854430 is heavily concentrated in a handful of Central and Eastern European (CEE) member states:

Romania and Hungary together account for over 35% of EU production and exhibit the highest specialisation indices. This concentration reflects the location of major wiring-harness factories by companies such as Yazaki, Leoni, and Dräxlmaier in these countries, attracted by lower labour costs and proximity to automotive assembly plants in Germany, the Czech Republic, and Austria. At the opposite end, Mediterranean and island economies (Cyprus, Luxembourg, Greece, Malta, Latvia) show negligible specialisation and near-zero production shares.

Hungary and France recorded the most striking shifts in trade flows

Among EU member states, Hungary experienced the most dramatic increase in import activity, with imports rising from €201 million to €1.30 billion (+546%). This positions Hungary as the fastest-growing import hub within the EU, likely reflecting its role as an assembly and re-export platform for wiring sets sourced from Serbia, Ukraine, and other nearby countries. Slovakia saw a 182% increase in imports (from €308 million to €870 million), consistent with its large automotive sector (Volkswagen, Kia, Stellantis plants).

On the export side, France recorded a remarkable 427% increase, from €77 million to €404 million, overtaking several traditional exporters. By contrast, Germany — the EU's largest exporter — saw exports decline by 19% (from €745 million to €602 million), while Romania and Bulgaria suffered even steeper declines (−43% and −89% respectively). This suggests that some CEE countries have shifted from being net exporters to being assembly platforms that import semi-finished components and re-export finished wiring sets — a change captured by the simultaneous rise in their import and production figures.

Import concentration increased, heightening supply-chain risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,790 to 1,941 (+8.4%), while the HHI for import volumes increased from 1,897 to 2,293 (+20.9%). These levels indicate moderate-to-high concentration: the EU's import supply of wiring sets is increasingly dependent on a small number of countries — principally Morocco and Tunisia. The volume-based HHI crossing 2,200 suggests that, from a physical supply perspective, the EU is more exposed to disruption than the value-based figures alone imply. Export concentration also rose, but more modestly (HHI by value: from 1,299 to 1,483), reflecting the diversification of export destinations towards the United States.

Trade volatility was highest in flows involving the United Kingdom (CV = 0.92 for imports, 0.53 for exports), Ukraine (CV = 0.57 for exports), and Russia (CV = 0.54 for exports) — partners where geopolitical disruption (Brexit, war) created significant instability. Among the main sourcing countries, Morocco (CV = 0.20) and Tunisia (CV = 0.22) showed relatively stable trade flows, which is consistent with their established role in the European automotive supply chain.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, EU trade in ignition wiring sets underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc shifted from a position of modest import dependence (net import reliance of 5.5%) to one where nearly half of domestic consumption is met by imports (49.7%). This shift was driven by the rapid growth of sourcing from Morocco, Tunisia, Serbia, and other nearshore locations, while EU export volumes collapsed by 62%. The trade deficit widened from €2.8 billion to €9.3 billion — a stark illustration of the relocation of labour-intensive wiring-harness production away from the EU.

Within the EU, the geography of production also shifted, with CEE member states — particularly Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia — consolidating their role as the bloc's wiring-set manufacturing cluster. However, even these countries increasingly serve as import-and-assembly platforms rather than fully self-contained producers, as evidenced by the parallel surge in their import volumes. The growing concentration of imports (HHI rising by 8–21%) and the near-doubling of trade intensity point to heightened supply-chain vulnerability. Any disruption to production in Morocco, Tunisia, or Serbia — whether from logistics bottlenecks, geopolitical events, or natural disasters — would have immediate consequences for European automotive assembly lines.

The data also reveals a notable resilience in unit values: export prices rose by 166% even as volumes fell, suggesting that the EU retains a competitive edge in higher-specification wiring sets, particularly for electric vehicles and premium models destined for the US market. Sustaining this advantage, while managing the risks of growing import dependence in lower-value segments, will be a key challenge for European industrial policy in the coming years.