Market evolution: Waste and scrap electrical parts (CN 8548) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in CN 8548 — Electrical parts of machinery or apparatus, n.e.s. in chapter 85 — over the period 2015–2025. The product covers residual electrical components and waste/scrap electrical parts not classified elsewhere in Chapter 85, corresponding to PRODCOM code 27.90.33.91. The EU entered this period as a significant net importer, with a trade deficit of approximately €403 million in 2015. Over the following decade, the market underwent a dramatic transformation characterised by a near-total collapse in traded physical volumes, a sharp rise in unit values, and a substantial narrowing of the trade deficit. This report examines these dynamics across three main axes: the volume-price divergence, the geographic reshaping of trade flows, and the EU's improving strategic autonomy in this product category.
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1. A Market Transformed: Collapsing Volumes and Surging Unit Prices
1.1 Physical trade volumes fell by over 90% on the import side
The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic contraction in physical quantities traded. EU imports of CN 8548 fell from 121,799 tonnes in 2015 to just 5,594 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 95.4%. EU exports also contracted sharply, from 27,634 tonnes to 6,735 tonnes (−75.6%). In volume terms, the EU's engagement with the rest of the world in this product category has been largely hollowed out.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import volume (t) | 121,799 | 5,594 | −95.4% |
| Export volume (t) | 27,634 | 6,735 | −75.6% |
1.2 Unit prices surged, especially on the import side
Despite the collapse in volumes, trade values declined far less steeply. EU import values fell from €634 million to €251 million (−60.3%), while export values went from €231 million to €162 million (−29.7%). The explanation lies in a spectacular increase in unit prices. Average import prices rose from €5,203 per tonne to €44,889 per tonne — an increase of 762.8%. Export prices climbed from €8,334 to €24,045 per tonne (+188.5%).
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (€M) | 634 | 251 | −60.3% |
| Export value (€M) | 231 | 162 | −29.7% |
| Import price (€/t) | 5,203 | 44,889 | +762.8% |
| Export price (€/t) | 8,334 | 24,045 | +188.5% |
1.3 The divergence suggests a compositional shift in what is traded
The coexistence of collapsing volumes and surging prices points to a fundamental compositional shift in the types of goods classified under CN 8548. In 2015, this heading likely captured large volumes of relatively low-value electrical scrap and waste components traded for recycling or recovery. By 2025, the residual items being reported under this code appear to be higher-value, lower-volume specialised electrical components. This could reflect changes in classification practices, tighter enforcement of waste shipment regulations (such as the EU Waste Shipment Regulation amendments), or a genuine structural shift away from bulk scrap flows toward higher-value residual components.
2. Geographic Reconfiguration: China's Enduring Dominance and the Retreat of European Neighbours
2.1 China remains the EU's dominant trade partner, but flows have halved
China has been the single largest import source and the largest export destination for CN 8548 throughout the period. In 2015, EU imports from China stood at €262 million (41.3% of total imports); by 2025 this had fallen to €122 million (48.5% of a much smaller total). Exports to China remained relatively stable, declining only 11.0% from €28.5 million to €25.3 million — the most resilient of all major export flows.
| Partner (Imports) | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 262 | 122 | −53.5% |
| United Kingdom | 61 | 4 | −93.0% |
| United States | 34 | 22 | −34.2% |
| Switzerland | 19 | 2 | −88.2% |
| Serbia | 11 | 0 | −100.0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 8 | 2 | −75.3% |
| Norway | 8 | 0.2 | −97.6% |
2.2 European and near-European partners experienced the steepest declines
The most dramatic contractions in imports came not from China but from the EU's immediate neighbours. Imports from the United Kingdom collapsed by 93.0% (from €61 million to €4 million), likely reflecting the combined effects of Brexit-related trade friction and changes in scrap shipment patterns. Imports from Norway (−97.6%), Switzerland (−88.2%), and Serbia (−100.0%) similarly evaporated. Bosnia and Herzegovina showed extreme price volatility: the data detects a major import price shock in 2022, with unit prices shifting by +303.3% and an abnormality score of 190.7 — suggesting a sudden compositional change or a one-off high-value shipment.
2.3 Export destinations show increasing volatility, with several shock events
EU exports to Asia-Pacific destinations were highly volatile. A notable export price shock to Malaysia was detected in 2022, with prices shifting by +5,417.8% (abnormality score 94.5), and a China-directed price shock occurred in 2018 (shift of +936.3%, abnormality 81.3). Exports to Hong Kong (−69.3%), Japan (−75.8%), and Pakistan (−91.3%) all contracted sharply, while India was a rare growth market (+17.8%). The coefficient of variation for export flows to China was 1.41 and to Malaysia 1.48, confirming high year-to-year instability.
2.4 Import concentration has increased while export markets remain diversified
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners by value rose from 2,212 to 2,998 (+35.5%), confirming that imports have become more concentrated on fewer origins — principally China. By volume, the HHI surge was even more dramatic (from 1,271 to 3,508, +176.1%). In contrast, export market concentration by value declined slightly from 1,016 to 903 (−11.1%), suggesting the EU has maintained a relatively diversified set of export destinations even as overall volumes declined.
| HHI (value) | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | 2,212 | 2,998 | +35.5% |
| Exports | 1,016 | 903 | −11.1% |
3. Improving EU Strategic Autonomy in a Shrinking Global Market
3.1 The EU trade deficit narrowed dramatically
In 2015, the EU ran a trade deficit of €403 million in CN 8548 goods. By 2025, this had narrowed to €89 million — a 77.9% improvement. At the trough in 2023, the deficit was only €81 million. This convergence was driven by the faster contraction of imports relative to exports, rather than by export growth.
| Year | Balance (€M) |
|---|---|
| 2015 | −403 |
| 2020 | n/a (see trend) |
| 2023 | −81 |
| 2025 | −89 |
3.2 Net import reliance fell to historically low levels
EU net import reliance on CN 8548 — measured as the trade deficit relative to apparent consumption — declined from 9.6% in 2015 to 3.4% in 2025 (−65.0%). The minimum was reached at 2.8%, indicating that the EU became largely self-sufficient in this product category by the early 2020s. This trend was accompanied by a decline in overall trade intensity (from 19.2% to 14.2%, −26.0%), while export propensity remained broadly stable at around 6% (+2.9%).
3.3 EU production held steady at around €3 billion despite declining trade
PRODCOM data shows that EU domestic production of goods mapped to CN 8548 (code 27.90.33.91) was valued at €3.41 billion in the initial period and stood at approximately €3.0 billion in the most recent observation — a modest decline of 12.1%. Given the near-collapse of import volumes, this relative stability in production value further confirms that the EU has substantially reduced its dependence on external suppliers.
3.4 Germany dominates intra-EU production and trade, but several smaller Member States show high specialisation
Germany is the largest EU exporter (€70 million in 2025, −26.2% from 2015) and the largest importer (€77 million in 2025, −72.4% from 2015). Among smaller Member States, the 2025 revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data identifies Croatia (RSCA 0.46), Hungary (0.35), the Netherlands (0.35), Estonia (0.26), and France (0.22) as the most specialised in this product. The Netherlands stands out with nearly 30% of total EU exports in this category. Italy was the only major EU exporter to record growth over the period (+60.7%, from €6.3 million to €10.1 million), suggesting a possible niche competitive gain.
Conclusion
The EU market for CN 8548 goods has undergone a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Physical trade volumes — both imports and exports — have collapsed, with import quantities falling by over 95%. This has been accompanied by a surge in unit prices, pointing to a compositional shift from bulk electrical scrap flows toward higher-value, lower-volume residual components. Geographically, China has consolidated its position as the dominant partner, while the EU's near-neighbour imports (UK, Norway, Switzerland, Serbia) have virtually disappeared. The EU's trade deficit narrowed from €403 million to €89 million, and net import reliance dropped to just 3.4%, as domestic production held relatively steady at approximately €3 billion. Import concentration has increased (HHI rising 36%), while export markets remain diversified. The overall picture is one of an EU market that has become significantly more autonomous, with trade flows that are smaller, more concentrated, and more volatile than a decade ago.