Market evolution: Electric lamps (CN 8539) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in electric filament or discharge lamps, including LED light sources (CN 8539), over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a profound structural transformation of the market, characterized by a decisive shift in the EU's trade balance, a major realignment of trade partners, and a clear technological transition within the product segments. The EU has moved from a position of significant trade surplus to one of net import reliance, driven by a surge in imports—particularly from China—amid a sharp decline in traditional exports. Concurrently, the product portfolio has pivoted towards high-value LED technology, while conventional lamp types have experienced steep volume contractions.
1. The EU's transition from a net exporter to a net importer
The most significant macro-level dynamic over the decade is the reversal of the EU's trade position. The Union started the period as a substantial net exporter of lighting products but ended it as a net importer, reflecting major competitive and structural shifts in the global market.
The erosion of a historic trade surplus
The EU's trade balance for CN 8539 deteriorated sharply, swinging from a surplus of €995 million in 2015 to a deficit of €312 million in 2025. This 131% decline masks a more dramatic trajectory; the deficit peaked at nearly -€448 million in 2022. This reversal is explained by two divergent trends: a collapse in exports and a robust increase in imports.
Export collapse versus import growth
| Metric | 2015 (First) | 2025 (Last) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | |||
| Value (EUR) | 2.001 billion | 1.207 billion | -39.7% |
| Quantity (tonnes) | 72,029 | 17,644 | -75.5% |
| Imports | |||
| Value (EUR) | 1.005 billion | 1.519 billion | +51.1% |
| Quantity (tonnes) | 60,653 | 69,558 | +14.7% |
- The volume of EU exports fell by three-quarters, far outstripping the decline in value. This indicates a retreat from mass-market, lower-value-added segments.
- In contrast, imports grew in both value and volume, though the value growth (+51.1%) outpaced quantity growth (+14.7%), signalling a rising average import price and a shift in the product mix being imported.
Rising import prices and the pricing power gap
The average price per tonne for EU exports nearly tripled (from €27,774 to €68,379), while the import price increased by a more modest 32% (from €16,574 to €21,835). This divergence suggests the EU's remaining exports are increasingly specialized, high-value products (e.g., niche lighting, UV/IR lamps), while it imports more standardized, volume-driven goods. This pricing dynamic is central to understanding the trade balance shift.
2. A radical realignment of trade partners and heightened dependency
The changing trade flows have been underpinned by a dramatic reshaping of the EU's partner landscape, leading to increased concentration and vulnerability on the import side.
China's dominant and growing role as the EU's supplier
China solidified its position as the dominant source of EU imports, with its share growing significantly.
| Metric (EU Imports from China) | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value (EUR) | 606 million | 1.123 billion | +85.2% |
- By 2025, China accounted for nearly 74% of the total value of EU imports, up from 60% in 2015. The import HHI index (a measure of concentration) rose by 44% over the period, confirming this increased dependency on a single partner.
- This dominance is most pronounced in the high-volume LED lamp (853952) and module (853951) segments, which are now the primary drivers of trade.
The decline of traditional export markets
Conversely, the EU's export footprint contracted across its key historical markets.
| Export Partner | 2015 Value (EUR) | 2025 Value (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 490 million | 270 million | -44.9% |
| China | 382 million | 139 million | -63.5% |
| Russian Federation | 72 million | 5,214 | -100.0% |
| United Kingdom | 208 million | 149 million | -28.6% |
- The near-total collapse of exports to Russia post-2022 is a stark geopolitical shock. Exports to the US and China also fell dramatically, indicating a loss of competitiveness or offshoring of production for these markets.
- The HHI for EU exports declined by 20%, reflecting this fragmentation and loss of major destinations.
3. Technological obsolescence and the LED transition
The trade story is fundamentally a story of technological change, clearly visible in the product segment breakdown. The period witnessed the sunset of several traditional lamp technologies and the rapid ascent of LEDs.
The sunsetting of legacy lamp technologies
The core filament and discharge lamp categories experienced severe volume declines in both EU production and trade.
- Fluorescent discharge lamps (853931): EU imports of this once-dominant category plummeted from 20,751 tonnes in 2015 to just 2,072 tonnes in 2025. This reflects both the global phase-out of fluorescent lighting (e.g., due to mercury regulations) and the loss of EU production.
- Filament lamps (853921, 853922, 853929): Import volumes for all filament lamp subcategories fell by 50-80% over the decade, mirroring their replacement by more efficient technologies.
- EU production quantities for CN 8539 as a whole collapsed by 85.3%, underscoring the structural decline in domestic manufacturing of legacy products.
The rise of LED lamps and modules as the new trade core
The growth in imports was entirely driven by the new LED subheadings, which were introduced to the data from 2022.
- By 2025, LED lamps (853952) and LED modules (853951) together accounted for 76% of total EU import value and 77% of import volume.
- The volume of LED lamp imports reached 42,157 tonnes in 2025, while modules stood at 11,338 tonnes, demonstrating massive market penetration.
- Interestingly, the unit price for LED lamps in imports declined from €1.31 per item in 2022 to €0.99 in 2025, indicating price erosion as the technology matures and scales.
The resilient niche: High-value specialized exports
Amid the overall export decline, a few high-value segments demonstrated resilience, highlighting where the EU's remaining competitive advantage lies.
- Ultraviolet or infra-red lamps (853949): Export value grew by 48% to €240 million by 2025. The unit export price for this segment is very high (€64,712 per tonne in 2025), confirming its status as a specialized, technology-intensive niche.
- Parts (853990) and specialized filament lamps (853921, 853929) also maintained relatively high unit values, though their volumes continued to shrink.
Conclusion
The decade 2015-2025 marked a fundamental restructuring of the EU's electric lamp market. The Union transitioned from a net exporter with a diversified partner base to a net importer heavily dependent on China for high-volume LED products. This shift was driven by the rapid technological obsolescence of traditional lamp types and the corresponding collapse of EU-based manufacturing capacity for these goods. The market is now characterized by a clear division: a high-volume, price-sensitive import stream for LED lighting, and a smaller, high-value export stream focused on niche, technologically advanced products like UV/IR lamps. This new structure presents both an opportunity—specialization in high-margin segments—and a significant vulnerability due to extreme import concentration. The future competitiveness of the EU industry will depend on its ability to innovate in these specialized areas and navigate the challenges of supply chain dependency.