Market evolution: Printed circuits (CN 8534) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Printed circuits (CN 8534) are a foundational component of the electronics supply chain, serving as the backbone for virtually all electronic devices. This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in printed circuits over the period 2015–2025, drawing on trade data for CN 8534. Over this decade, the EU's trade position in printed circuits has undergone significant structural shifts: import dependency has deepened, the trade deficit has widened, and the geographic concentration of suppliers has intensified—principally around China. At the same time, EU domestic production has surged, and intra-EU specialisation patterns have evolved notably, particularly in Central and Eastern European member states. The following sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

1. A Structural Widening of the EU's Trade Deficit

The EU has run a persistent and growing trade deficit in printed circuits throughout the 2015–2025 period. This deficit widened from €3.10 billion in 2015 to €4.11 billion in 2025, a deterioration of 32.7%. The underlying dynamics reveal divergent trajectories between imports and exports, both in terms of volume and value.

Imports grew strongly in both volume and value

Total EU imports of printed circuits rose from €3.97 billion in 2015 to a peak of €6.09 billion in the early 2020s before settling at €5.04 billion in 2025—a net increase of 26.8% over the decade. Physical import volumes grew by 19.0%, from 81,522 tonnes to 96,971 tonnes, while the average import price edged up by 6.6%, from €48,754/t to €51,972/t. This indicates that the import bill expansion was driven primarily by volume growth rather than dramatic unit-price inflation, consistent with the EU's growing need for printed circuits to feed its electronics and automotive industries.

Exports stagnated in value while volumes declined sharply

EU exports tell a contrasting story. Export value rose modestly from €879 million to €932 million (+6.0%), but physical export volumes fell by 27.5%, from 9,342 tonnes to 6,776 tonnes. This volume decline was more than offset by a 46.1% surge in export unit values (from €94,018/t to €137,388/t). The divergence between falling quantities and rising prices suggests that EU exporters have moved up the value chain, specialising in higher-value, more technologically sophisticated printed circuits rather than competing on volume with low-cost Asian producers.

Net import reliance has deepened materially

The net import reliance indicator—measuring the share of EU consumption met by imports—rose from 26.2% in 2015 to 34.5% in 2025, a 31.7% increase. This means that over a third of the printed circuits consumed in the EU are now sourced from outside the bloc, up from roughly a quarter a decade ago. Trade intensity also climbed from 39.4% to 48.4%, confirming that the EU's printed-circuit market has become more globally integrated over the period.

2. China's Ascendancy and the Reconfiguration of Asian Supply Chains

The most consequential structural shift in EU printed-circuit trade over 2015–2025 has been the dramatic consolidation of China's role as the dominant supplier. Simultaneously, other traditional Asian sources—particularly Hong Kong and Taiwan—have experienced steep declines, pointing to a broader reconfiguration of global electronics supply chains.

China has become the overwhelmingly dominant supplier

EU imports from China grew from €2.32 billion in 2015 to €3.45 billion in 2025, an increase of 49.0%, with a peak of €4.17 billion recorded in between. China's share of total EU printed-circuit imports thus rose from approximately 58% to roughly 69% over the decade. The import concentration index (HHI) for imports by value rose by 32.8%, from 3,604 to 4,785, confirming that EU import sourcing has become significantly more concentrated—effectively more dependent on a single country.

Hong Kong and Taiwan have experienced sharp declines

Imports from Hong Kong collapsed by 64.6%, falling from €215 million to just €76 million. Imports from Taiwan declined by 52.9%, from €356 million to €168 million. These declines are consistent with two overlapping trends: first, the re-routing of mainland Chinese exports directly rather than through Hong Kong as a trading hub; second, the relocation of PCB production from higher-cost locations (Taiwan, Hong Kong) to mainland China and, to a lesser extent, to Southeast Asia. The high volatility of trade with Hong Kong (coefficient of variation of 0.33) and Taiwan (0.34) further underlines the instability of these sourcing relationships.

South Korea and Thailand offer partial diversification

Against this backdrop, South Korea emerged as a growing supplier, with EU imports rising by 60.0% from €103 million to €164 million. Thailand also maintained a stable presence, growing 16.5% to €281 million. These two countries represent modest but meaningful diversification options. However, their combined share remains a small fraction of China's dominance, and the overall concentration of EU imports has continued to rise.

A significant supply-price shock was detected in 2022

The shock detection analysis identified a major price shock in EU imports from China centred on 2022, with an abnormality score of 73.8 and a year-on-year price shift of +19.5%. Given that China accounts for over 91% of the import value involved, this shock had systemic significance. It likely reflects the post-COVID semiconductor supply crunch, logistics disruptions, and energy cost pressures that rippled through global electronics supply chains in 2021–2022. The magnitude of this shock underscores the EU's vulnerability to price and supply disruptions originating from a single dominant supplier.

3. Domestic Production Expansion and Intra-EU Specialisation

While the EU's external trade position has weakened, the internal production landscape for printed circuits has undergone a remarkable transformation. EU production volumes and values have surged, and distinct specialisation patterns have emerged across member states—particularly in Central and Eastern Europe.

EU production has grown at an extraordinary pace

According to production data, EU production of printed circuits (measured by the number of items) increased by an extraordinary 1,770%, from 156.7 million items in 2015 to 2.93 billion items in 2025. Production value rose by 763%, from €875 million to €7.55 billion. These figures—particularly the volume growth—are striking and suggest a massive scaling-up of PCB manufacturing capacity within the EU, potentially driven by automotive electrification, industrial automation demand, and policy incentives to bolster European electronics sovereignty.

Central and Eastern European economies have emerged as specialisation leaders

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that the most specialised EU producers of printed circuits are overwhelmingly located in Central and Eastern Europe:

Slovakia and Romania lead with revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) scores near 0.60, indicating strong specialisation. This pattern likely reflects the integration of these countries into European electronics and automotive supply chains, where lower labour costs, proximity to Western European OEMs, and EU structural funds have supported the build-up of PCB manufacturing capacity. Romania, in particular, saw its imports surge by 83.8% (from €190 million to €349 million), consistent with rapid expansion of its electronics assembly ecosystem.

EU export destinations have shifted, with the UK declining sharply

The post-Brexit restructuring of EU–UK trade is clearly visible in the data. EU exports to the United Kingdom fell by 55.2%, from €151 million to €67 million—the steepest decline among the EU's top export partners. Meanwhile, exports to Morocco (+68.0%), Italy's domestic growth, and stable flows to the United States (+7.2%) and Switzerland (+8.7%) suggest a reorientation of EU export flows toward southern neighbourhood and intra-European destinations. The export concentration index (HHI) decreased by 15.9% (from 1,051 to 884), indicating that EU export destinations have become moderately more diversified over the period—a positive development from a risk perspective.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU's trade in printed circuits has been defined by a fundamental tension: growing domestic production capacity coexisting with deepening import dependency. The EU's trade deficit in this sector widened to over €4 billion, driven by a 26.8% increase in imports that outstripped the modest 6.0% growth in export value. China's dominance as a supplier has intensified dramatically, now accounting for roughly 69% of EU imports—a concentration that represents a significant strategic vulnerability, as the 2022 price shock demonstrated.

At the same time, the picture is not entirely one-sided. EU domestic production has expanded enormously, with item volumes increasing nearly 18-fold and production value growing over sevenfold. Central and Eastern European member states—Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, and the Baltics—have carved out strong specialisation niches, reflecting the deepening of European electronics supply chains. EU exports, while declining in volume, have shifted toward higher-value products (unit values up 46.1%), and export destinations have become somewhat more diversified.

The key policy-relevant question going forward is whether the EU can sustain and scale its domestic production gains to meaningfully reduce its reliance on Chinese imports. The data suggests that the building blocks are in place—growing production, emerging specialisation centres, and an upward shift in export value—but the gap between EU production capacity and consumption demand remains substantial.