Market evolution: Carbon electrodes and brushes (CN 8545) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of European Union (EU) trade in products under Combined Nomenclature (CN) code 8545 (carbon electrodes, brushes, and related articles for electrical purposes) from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a market undergoing significant structural shifts: the EU is a consistent net exporter, yet its trade balance has deteriorated over the decade. This is driven by falling export volumes, rising import prices, and a profound reorientation of trade partners. The following sections explore the core themes of value adaptation, changing geopolitical supply chains, and segment-specific vulnerabilities.

1. From Volume to Value: The EU's Export Market Contraction and Price Resilience

The EU's export performance in CN 8545 is characterized by a stark divergence between declining physical volumes and relatively resilient, though fluctuating, total values. This indicates a fundamental shift in the types of products exported and the market conditions facing EU exporters.

1.1 A Decade of Declining Export Quantities

EU export volumes have contracted significantly, from 430,946 tonnes in 2015 to 280,921 tonnes in 2025, a 34.8% decrease. The peak was reached in 2017 at 712,307 tonnes, after which volumes fell sharply. This decline occurred across most major product segments, with the most dramatic drop observed in exports of furnace electrodes (854511), which fell from 181,768 tonnes in 2015 to 217,735 tonnes in 2025, and non-furnace electrodes (854519), which plummeted from 245,325 tonnes to 61,059 tonnes over the same period.

1.2 Sustained Export Values Through Higher Unit Prices

Despite the volume collapse, total export value fell only 15.9%, from €893 million in 2015 to €751 million in 2025, due to a 29.0% increase in average export prices (from €2,072/t to €2,672/t). This price resilience masks extreme volatility. For instance, the export price for non-furnace electrodes (854519) swung from €1,568/t in 2015 to €5,015/t in 2023, while the price for other carbon articles (854590) surged from €15,746/t to €71,267/t. This suggests the EU is specializing in higher-value, more technologically advanced products or benefiting from periods of global price shocks.

1.3 The Worsening Trade Balance and Import Price Surge

The EU's trade surplus has shrunk by 28.3%, from €540 million in 2015 to €387 million in 2025. This is not merely due to falling exports, but also because import prices have risen even faster than export prices. Import prices increased by 43.2%, from €1,294/t to €1,852/t, while import volumes fell by 28.0%. The import value therefore remained nearly stable (€353M to €364M), eroding the EU's net exporter position.

2. Geopolitical Reorientation: Shifting Partners and Concentrated Dependencies

The period 2015-2025 has seen a dramatic realignment of the EU's trade partners for CN 8545, characterized by the decline of traditional suppliers, the consolidation of dependence on China, and the emergence of new trade corridors for exports.

2.1 The Consolidation of China as the Dominant Import Source

China's position as the EU's primary supplier has strengthened considerably. Import values from China rose 26.6% to €212 million in 2025, while its share of the import market has grown. This growth occurred despite a 2017 price shock for Chinese imports (abnormality score: 44.0), where prices surged 156.8%, demonstrating the EU's continued reliance. Meanwhile, imports from Russia and Norway have collapsed due to geopolitical events and sanctions, with Russian imports dropping to virtually zero (€17) by 2025.

2.2 Diversification and Volatility in Export Destinations

EU export flows show less concentration (lower HHI for exports: 737 vs. 3659 for imports in 2025) but have undergone significant shifts. Exports to traditional European partners like the UK (down 66.4%) and Norway (down 80.3%) have fallen sharply. Conversely, exports to Türkiye have grown by 24.5%, and a dramatic increase of 328.3% has made India the fastest-growing major export market. The export relationship with Norway, while still significant at €28 million in 2025, is highly volatile (CV: 0.87) and was marked by a severe price shock in 2022.

2.3 Import Supply Chain Concentration and Vulnerability

The concentration of EU imports has intensified. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value increased by 38.9% to 3,659, indicating a market moving from moderate to high concentration. This increased reliance on fewer suppliers, particularly China, creates vulnerability. This is underscored by the net import reliance metric, which shows the EU's net exporter position has weakened from -34% to -98%, signaling growing strategic dependency.

3. Segment Disparities and Domestic Production Stress

A breakdown of CN 8545 into its four sub-categories reveals starkly different trajectories, highlighting where the EU retains strength and where it faces import pressure. This is coupled with concerning trends in domestic EU production.

3.1 The Crucial Divergence: Furnace vs. Non-Furnace Electrodes

The market is split. For furnace electrodes (854511), the EU remains a major exporter (217,735t in 2025) but has seen export value fall sharply from its 2018 peak. Crucially, import volumes for these electrodes have also halved from their 2015 level to 45,222t in 2025, suggesting a potential decline in EU industrial demand (e.g., from steel and silicon producers) or successful import substitution. In contrast, for non-furnace electrodes (854519), the EU has become a much smaller exporter (61,059t in 2025) while import volumes have been more resilient, indicating a possible loss of competitiveness in this segment.

3.2 High-Value Niches: Carbon Brushes and Other Articles

The carbon brushes (854520) and other carbon articles (854590) segments are high-value niches. Their unit prices are an order of magnitude higher than for electrodes. The EU is a significant net exporter in both, with a particularly strong performance in carbon brushes, where export values grew to €152 million in 2025. The import price for carbon brushes also shows a consistent upward trend, reaching €61,914/t in 2025. These segments likely involve more specialized, technical products where EU manufacturing retains an edge.

3.3 EU Industrial Production Under Pressure

EU domestic production volumes have fallen dramatically, from 742 million kg in 2015 to 378 million kg in 2025 (a 49% decline). While production value has been more stable (around €1.1 billion), this volume decline suggests structural challenges for EU manufacturers, such as high energy costs or competition from abroad, and aligns with the contraction in export volumes. The EU's specialisation remains strong in countries like Spain and France, but the overall production base appears to be shrinking.

Conclusion

The EU market for carbon electrodes and brushes (CN 8545) between 2015 and 2025 tells a story of adaptation under pressure. The bloc is pivoting from volume-driven exports to a higher-value mix, but this has not fully offset the decline in physical trade flows. Its trade balance is weakening due to increased import prices and a profound dependence on China, which has absorbed the market share lost from former suppliers. Internally, production is contracting. The most vulnerable area is the "other carbon articles" segment, where the EU runs a significant trade deficit. While the EU maintains strengths in specialized electrodes and brushes, the overarching trends of rising import concentration, declining production, and a shifting geopolitical landscape point toward strategic vulnerabilities in this critical industrial supply chain.