Market evolution: Carbon electrodes (CN 854519) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of EU combined nomenclature code 854519, covering electrodes of graphite or other carbon for electrical purposes (excluding those used for furnaces), over the period 2015–2025. The analysis draws on EU trade data with non-EU countries at annual frequency. Over this decade, the European Union's trade in this product category underwent a profound transformation: EU exports of carbon electrodes collapsed in volume while prices surged, import sources became heavily concentrated on China, and domestic production effectively disappeared. The EU trade surplus, while still positive in 2025, shrank by two-thirds. These shifts point to a fundamental restructuring of the global supply chain for carbon electrodes, with implications for EU industrial competitiveness and supply security.

1. The structural decline of the EU as a carbon electrode exporter

EU export volumes fell by three-quarters while unit values more than doubled

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of carbon electrodes (General Overview) experienced a dramatic contraction in physical terms:

The near-halving of export value masks an even steeper collapse in volume. EU exporters shipped roughly 184,000 fewer tonnes in 2025 than they did in 2015 — a three-quarter reduction. The unit price more than doubled over the same period, from approximately €1,568/t to €3,850/t, suggesting that the EU's remaining exports are concentrated in higher-value, specialised product segments while standard-grade volumes have been lost to foreign competition.

Traditional export markets in Scandinavia and the UK virtually disappeared

The decline in EU exports was not evenly distributed across partners. The most dramatic contractions were observed in trade with Norway and Iceland — historically the EU's two largest export destinations for this product (top partners by value):

Norway and Iceland — both of which host major aluminium smelting industries that rely on carbon electrodes — saw EU supply to their markets drop by nearly 90%. The UK, post-Brexit, also experienced a near-total cessation of EU electrode exports (−97.0%). These losses were only partially offset by strong growth in exports to India (+500.4%), the UAE (+56.7%), and Bahrain (+316.8%), which together suggest a geographic pivot of EU exports toward the Gulf and South Asia, where aluminium production capacity has been expanding.

Poland emerged as the EU's leading exporter, while the Netherlands collapsed

Within the EU, the geography of export activity shifted markedly (top reporters by value):

Poland more than doubled its exports and became the EU's top exporter in 2025, accounting for over half of total EU export value. France and Germany also grew modestly. The most striking collapse occurred in the Netherlands, whose exports fell from €172M to just €2.1M (−98.8%). This suggests that the Netherlands previously served largely as a re-export or transit hub for carbon electrodes — a role that has effectively ceased, possibly due to shifts in logistics, reclassification of trade flows, or the exit of key trading companies from the market.

2. China's dominance of EU imports deepened as traditional suppliers withdrew

Import value grew modestly, but volumes declined and prices rose

EU imports of carbon electrodes (General Overview) showed a different pattern from exports:

While the value of imports rose by a quarter, the physical volume contracted by nearly a quarter. The resulting 65% increase in import unit prices indicates that the EU is paying significantly more per tonne for its carbon electrode imports than it did a decade ago — a trend consistent with global supply tightness and the rising cost of carbon and graphite raw materials.

China consolidated its position as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier

The most consequential shift in EU imports was the growing dominance of China (top partners by value):

China's share of EU imports rose from approximately 68% in 2015 to nearly 90% in 2025 (by value). Meanwhile, virtually every other supplier experienced severe declines: imports from Norway and Ukraine fell to near zero, imports from Iceland dropped by 97.7%, and imports from India fell by 86.0%. Switzerland was the only other partner to show significant growth, likely reflecting re-export activity from Swiss trading houses rather than domestic production.

Import concentration rose sharply, indicating heightened supply risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports (concentration) confirms the intensifying concentration:

An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market. The EU's import HHI of 8,063 in 2025 is in the extreme concentration range, driven almost entirely by China's overwhelming market share. This represents a significant vulnerability for EU industries dependent on carbon electrodes, as any disruption to Chinese supply — whether from trade policy, export restrictions, or logistics issues — could have severe consequences.

In contrast, the export-side HHI fell modestly (−24.5%), indicating that EU exports became slightly more diversified across destination markets over the period.

3. EU production collapsed and the trade balance eroded amid price shocks

Domestic production virtually ceased

Perhaps the most striking development in the data is the near-total disappearance of EU production of carbon electrodes (production volumes):

EU production of carbon electrodes fell from 72,400 tonnes to just 150 kg — effectively zero. Production value declined by 87.5%, from €80M to €10M. The fact that production value fell less sharply than quantity suggests that whatever residual EU production remains is concentrated in extremely high-value, niche products (consistent with the rising export unit prices observed earlier). This collapse in domestic capacity is the structural root cause of the EU's growing import dependency and the concentration of supply in China.

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals that Belgium and Poland retain the strongest revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 4.98 and 4.67 respectively), though these figures likely reflect trading activity rather than manufacturing, given the production collapse.

The EU trade surplus shrank by two-thirds as export volumes evaporated

The combined effect of collapsing exports and resilient imports was a sharp erosion of the EU's trade balance (General Overview):

The EU moved from a position of comfortable surplus (€269M) to a much narrower one (€91M). Given the trajectory — with export volumes continuing to decline and import prices rising — the surplus could disappear entirely in the coming years if current trends persist.

Major price shocks in 2022 hit EU exports to Norway and Iceland

The volatility analysis (supply shocks) reveals that the 2022 period was marked by significant price shocks in EU exports:

EU export prices to Norway spiked by nearly 472% in 2022, while prices to Iceland rose by 395%. Both events carried extremely high abnormality scores, indicating they were well outside normal market fluctuations. These shocks are likely connected to the global energy crisis and supply chain disruptions of 2022, which drove up the cost of graphite and other carbon raw materials. Notably, the price shock to Iceland was followed in 2023 by a near-total collapse in export volumes to that market (−97%), suggesting that Icelandic buyers either found alternative suppliers or reduced their consumption in response to the price spike.

The volatility analysis further shows that Norway (CV = 1.03) and the UK (CV = 1.05) exhibited the highest export volatility among EU partners, while China showed relatively low import volatility (CV = 0.29), consistent with its role as a steady, large-scale supplier.

Conclusion

The EU market for carbon electrodes (CN 854519) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production has essentially ceased (−99.8% by volume), export capacity has been hollowed out (−75.1% by quantity), and import dependency on China has deepened to near-monopolistic levels (HHI of 8,063). The EU trade surplus, while still positive, has shrunk by two-thirds. Traditional trade relationships with Scandinavian aluminium producers have largely dissolved, replaced by a growing reliance on Chinese imports and a geographic pivot of EU exports toward India and the Gulf states.

The 2022 price shocks to Norway and Iceland underscore the market's vulnerability to supply-side disruptions. With EU domestic production at negligible levels and import sources increasingly concentrated, the EU faces a structural exposure to supply chain risk in a product category that is critical to multiple electrical and industrial applications. Policy attention to diversifying supply sources, supporting residual EU production capacity, or investing in alternative technologies may be warranted to mitigate this growing vulnerability.