Market evolution: Fluorescent lamps (CN 853931) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in fluorescent hot cathode discharge lamps (customs code 853931) over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a market in structural decline: both EU trade flows have contracted by roughly 80–93 % in value over the decade, EU production has collapsed by over 97 %, and the market share of traditional fluorescent technology has given way to solid-state lighting. Against this backdrop, the EU has shifted from being a net importer to a net exporter — albeit on dramatically smaller volumes — while export unit prices have risen steeply, pointing to a remaining niche in higher-value or specialty lamp segments.

1. A market in secular decline: the collapse of volumes across the board

1.1 Imports and exports have both contracted at an extraordinary pace

The aggregate figures leave no ambiguity about the direction of the market. Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of fluorescent hot cathode lamps fell from €212.8 million to €15.5 million (−92.7 %), while exports dropped from €154.2 million to €31.6 million (−79.5 %). Measured in tonnes, imports declined by 90.0 % and exports by 93.9 %. In supplementary-unit terms (number of pieces), the contraction was equally severe: imports shrank from 214.9 million to 21.0 million units (−90.2 %), and exports from 192.8 million to 34.8 million units (−82.0 %).

Source: General overview

The decline was not linear. It accelerated in the early 2020s, with particularly sharp drops between 2018–2019 and 2022–2024. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 amplified the trend, but the contraction clearly predated it, suggesting structural rather than cyclical causes.

1.2 EU production has all but disappeared

EU domestic production volumes fell from 546.5 million pieces (2015) to just 15.8 million (2025), a decline of 97.1 %. In value terms, production shrank from €710.3 million to €37.6 million (−94.7 %). This collapse is the single most dramatic structural feature of the data: the EU has essentially exited the manufacture of fluorescent hot cathode lamps as a mass product. The remaining 15.8 million pieces likely represent a small number of specialty or legacy-production runs rather than an active industrial base.

1.3 The LED revolution is the primary structural driver

The most plausible explanation for this simultaneous collapse of production, imports, and exports is the global transition from fluorescent to LED lighting. The EU's own regulatory environment accelerated this shift: the RoHS Directive progressively restricted mercury-containing lamps, and the Ecodesign Regulation effectively phased out fluorescent tubes from September 2023. This regulatory tightening, combined with the rapid cost-competitiveness of LED alternatives, made fluorescent technology obsolete for general lighting applications. What remains is a residual market for replacement lamps in existing installations and niche applications (e.g., specialist horticultural, germicidal, or industrial settings where fluorescent characteristics are still required).

2. Diverging price dynamics and the emergence of a niche

2.1 Export unit prices have risen sharply even as volumes collapsed

One of the most striking features of the data is the divergence between volume and value trajectories in EU exports. While export volumes fell by 82–94 % (depending on the unit), export unit prices increased dramatically: the per-tonne price rose from €6,879 to €23,104 (+235.8 %), and the per-piece price from €0.80 to €0.91 (+13.7 %). The much larger increase on a per-tonne basis suggests that the remaining exports are lighter-weight, higher-value lamps — consistent with a shift toward specialty or premium products.

Source: General overview

The segment-level data reinforces this interpretation. For exports of sub-product 85393110 (double-ended cap lamps), the per-tonne price surged from €4,936 (2015) to €23,135 (2025), while for sub-product 85393190 (other fluorescent lamps), it rose from €17,901 to €23,036. The convergence of these two sub-segments on a much higher price point further supports the hypothesis that only high-value, low-volume products remain in the export portfolio.

2.2 Import prices have moved in the opposite direction

In contrast, import prices declined. The per-tonne import price fell from €10,251 to €7,439 (−27.4 %), and the per-piece price from €0.99 to €0.74 (−25.6 %). This likely reflects the commodity nature of the remaining import flows: as general-purpose fluorescent lamps become obsolete, the only imports still entering the EU are basic replacement lamps — increasingly commoditized and price-sensitive — sourced from low-cost producers.

2.3 The EU has shifted from a trade deficit to a surplus

The combined effect of collapsing imports and a slower (though still steep) decline in exports, coupled with rising export prices, has flipped the EU's trade balance. In 2015, the EU ran a trade deficit of €−58.5 million; by 2025, this had become a surplus of €16.2 million. The EU is now a net exporter in value terms, shipping specialty fluorescent lamps to third-country markets that still demand them, while its own domestic demand has virtually evaporated.

3. Shifting geography: partner concentration and EU member-state specialisation

3.1 China's dominance of EU imports has collapsed

China was overwhelmingly the EU's primary source of imports in 2015, accounting for €178.2 million — 83.7 % of total EU imports by value. By 2025, this had fallen to €12.2 million (−93.2 %). The import concentration index (HHI) declined from 7,063 to 6,435, indicating a modest diversification — but this is largely because the absolute scale of imports shrank so dramatically that all partners' shares became more evenly distributed by default. Other traditional suppliers such as Russia (from €531,649 to €85), India (from €4.4 million to €4,857), and Türkiye (from €2.7 million to €40,432) also saw their flows collapse by 99–100 %.

Source: Partners overview

3.2 EU export destinations have contracted but remain more diversified

EU exports by partner also declined across the board, but the pattern is somewhat different. The United States and the United Kingdom remained the two largest export destinations, though their combined share fell from €67.3 million (2015) to €15.1 million (2025). Middle Eastern markets — Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt, and the UAE — collectively shrank from €27.6 million to €0.96 million, a near-total withdrawal. The export concentration HHI actually rose from 1,181 to 1,916, meaning exports became more concentrated on fewer partners as the smaller markets dropped away first.

Source: Partners overview

3.3 Poland emerged as the EU's leading exporter; production is now concentrated in a few member states

Among EU member states, Poland was the largest exporter in 2015 (€59.2 million) and remained the leader in 2025 (€12.2 million, −79.3 %). Germany and France, the second and third largest exporters, each declined by over 89 %. On the import side, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy were the largest importers in 2015; all saw imports contract by 89–97 % by 2025.

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals a striking pattern: the most specialised EU producers in this declining category are Latvia (RSCA: 0.96), Lithuania (0.86), and Denmark (0.59). These small economies have high relative specialisation, but their absolute contribution is tiny — Latvia accounts for just 0.17 % of EU production and Lithuania 0.08 %. This indicates that, in absolute terms, production is concentrated in a handful of larger member states (likely Poland, France, and Germany based on export volumes), even though smaller economies show the highest relative specialisation indices.

3.4 Trade volatility has been elevated, with notable price shocks

The volatility analysis reveals high coefficient-of-variation values across most partners, consistent with a market in structural transition. The most notable shock events include:

• A price shock in exports to Russia in 2017 (abnormality: 21.4, price shift: +97.7 %), likely reflecting sanctions-related disruption or a shift in product mix.
• A price shock in exports to Saudi Arabia in 2022 (abnormality: 20.2, price shift: +534.3 %), which may reflect a sudden shift to high-value specialty lamps as the general-purpose segment disappeared.
• A supply shock in exports to Egypt in 2025 (abnormality: 2.8, volume shift: −97.8 %), reflecting the near-total withdrawal from that market.

Conclusion

The EU market for fluorescent hot cathode lamps (CN 853931) has undergone a profound structural contraction over the 2015–2025 period. Driven by the LED lighting revolution and reinforced by EU regulatory action — particularly the RoHS restrictions on mercury-containing lamps and the 2023 phase-out under the Ecodesign Regulation — trade volumes, domestic production, and market demand have all fallen by 80–97 %. China's role as the EU's dominant import supplier has been eroded along with the overall market. The remaining trade flows are characterised by high export unit prices (up 236 % per tonne) and declining import prices, suggesting that the EU now specialises in high-value, niche fluorescent lamps while residual import demand is limited to commoditised replacement products. The trade balance has flipped from a €58.5 million deficit in 2015 to a €16.2 million surplus in 2025 — but this is a surplus of a shrinking market, not a sign of competitive strength. As LED technology continues to mature and gain regulatory preference, the fluorescent lamp trade is expected to continue its decline toward near-zero levels over the coming years.