Market evolution: Small petrol cars (CN 870322) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of European Union (EU) trade in small petrol cars with engines between 1.0 and 1.5 litres (CN 870322) from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a market undergoing a significant transformation, marked by rising values despite falling volumes, a major geopolitical realignment of trade partners, and the EU strengthening its position as a net exporter. The period is characterised by shifts towards higher-value vehicles, increasing price inflation, and a changing competitive landscape influenced by global events and the energy transition.

1. From Volume Growth to Value Dominance: A Structural Market Shift

The core narrative of this decade is the transition from a volume-driven trade model to one dominated by rising values and prices. While the physical number of vehicles traded has contracted, their total value has remained robust or grown, indicating a move upmarket.

1.1. Export Resilience and the Rise in Unit Values

EU exports of CN 870322 vehicles demonstrated remarkable value resilience despite a decline in the physical number of units shipped. Between the first and last years of the period, the value of exports grew by 5.1% to reach €15.6 billion, while the supplementary quantity (number of vehicles) fell by 31.2% to 839,951 units (Overview). This divergence is explained by a substantial increase in the average export price per vehicle, which rose by 52.8% from €12,169 to €18,598. This trend suggests that EU manufacturers successfully shifted their export portfolio towards more premium, better-equipped, or technologically advanced models within this engine class, effectively selling fewer but more valuable cars.

1.2. Import Contraction and Price Inflation

Imports followed a similar, though less pronounced, pattern of falling volumes and rising values. The number of vehicles imported into the EU dropped by 31.3% (from 614,973 to 422,671 units), while the import value decreased by a smaller 4.8% to €5.7 billion. Consequently, the average import price per vehicle increased by 38.5%, reaching €13,509. This price inflation was not uniform across categories. New vehicle imports (87032210) saw their unit price rise steadily by 46.2% (from €10,026 to €14,661). Used vehicle imports (87032290), however, experienced even steeper price inflation of 80.6%, rising from €3,511 to €6,343, possibly reflecting increased demand for affordable used cars amidst new vehicle supply constraints and economic pressures.

1.3. Production Trends Mirror the Trade Shift

EU domestic production for this segment aligned with the trade trends. Production volumes fell by 8.0% over the period, yet the production value surged by 66.9% (Market Structure). This confirms the broader industry trend of prioritising higher-margin vehicles and reflects the impact of inflation on the cost of inputs and finished goods.

2. Geopolitical Reconfiguration of Trade Partnerships

The period witnessed a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's major trading partners for this vehicle segment, driven by Brexit, shifting manufacturing strategies, and the rise of new competitors.

2.1. The United Kingdom: A Volatile but Dominant Partner

The United Kingdom remained the EU's single largest export destination and import source throughout the period, though with significant volatility. Exports to the UK accounted for €5.8 billion in 2025, down 10.5% from 2015. Imports from the UK fell more sharply, by 23.1% to €1.35 billion. The high coefficient of variation (0.53) for imports indicates considerable year-to-year instability, likely reflecting supply chain disruptions and the evolving regulatory alignment post-Brexit.

2.2. The Ascendancy of Türkiye and Decline of Traditional Suppliers

A major structural shift has been the meteoric rise of Türkiye as an export powerhouse for the EU. EU exports to Türkiye skyrocketed by 258.9%, growing from €1.2 billion to €4.3 billion to become the second-largest export market. Conversely, imports from Türkiye fell by 42.2%. This suggests Türkiye has evolved from a source of vehicles for the EU into a critical production base for EU brands exporting back to the bloc and to other regions. Meanwhile, traditional partners like Japan and Mexico saw their export shares to the EU decline dramatically (by 96.4% and 71.5%, respectively).

2.3. The Emergence of China and Morocco in the Import Landscape

The most striking development on the import side is the explosive growth of China. EU imports of CN 870322 vehicles from China grew by an astonishing 26,624%, from a negligible €4.2 million in 2015 to over €1.1 billion in 2025, making it the seventh-largest import partner by value (Top Partners). This growth, marked by extreme volatility (CV of 1.39), underscores China's rapid ascent as an automotive exporter. Similarly, Morocco's import value to the EU more than doubled (130% growth), highlighting the growth of automotive manufacturing in North Africa.

3. Market Consolidation, Volatility, and Growing EU Autonomy

Beyond bilateral flows, the overall market structure exhibits increasing concentration, significant price shocks, and a strengthening of the EU's strategic position as a net exporter.

3.1. Increased Specialisation and Production Concentration

The EU's production of this vehicle segment has become more geographically concentrated. In 2025, the five most specialised member states—Slovakia, Portugal, Romania, Czechia, and Spain—held a combined Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indicating strong export focus in this niche (Specialisation). Czechia, for instance, saw its export value from the EU more than double (+107.3%). This specialisation reflects investment decisions by major OEMs to consolidate production of certain models in specific Central and Eastern European countries.

3.2. Pronounced Price Shocks and Supply Chain Vulnerability

The trade data captures significant price shocks, particularly in 2022. An export price shock was detected in trade with Belarus (abnormality score of 316.7), and a major import price shock occurred with New Zealand (abnormality score of 215.0) in that year (Shocks). These events, aligned with the post-pandemic semiconductor shortage and the energy crisis, highlight the sector's acute vulnerability to global supply chain disruptions, which manifested in extreme price volatility for certain trade flows.

3.3. Strengthening Net Export Position and Trade Intensity

The EU's strategic autonomy in this segment has solidified. The net import reliance ratio was consistently negative throughout the period, starting at -5.4% in 2015 and deepening to -11.9% in 2025, confirming the EU is a structural net exporter (Autonomy). This is further supported by a dramatic rise in the EU's export propensity (from 18.6% to 38.2%) and trade intensity (from 28.2% to 51.6%). These metrics indicate that the EU automotive industry has become significantly more export-oriented and integrated into global value chains for this vehicle category.

Conclusion

The EU market for small petrol cars (CN 870322) over 2015–2025 has undergone a profound evolution. The dominant trend is the decoupling of value from volume, with rising unit prices compensating for lower physical trade flows. Geopolitically, the trade map has been redrawn: the UK remains pivotal but unstable, Türkiye has become an indispensable production hub, and China has emerged as a major new import source. Domestically, production has consolidated and specialised. Overall, the EU has strengthened its global footprint as a net exporter with deep trade integration. However, the period also revealed the sector's susceptibility to severe price shocks and supply chain disruptions, underscoring the challenges of managing an increasingly complex and globalised automotive value chain. The data points to an industry in transition, prioritising value, adapting to new trade realities, and contending with persistent volatility.