Market evolution: Plug-in hybrid cars (CN 870360) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) classified under Combined Nomenclature code 870360 for the European Union with non-EU countries from 2015 to 2025. The period witnessed a dramatic transformation in this market segment, characterized by explosive growth in trade volumes and a fundamental shift in the EU's trade dynamics. The data reveals a market that evolved from a niche, export-oriented EU industry to a massively scaled sector with significant import penetration, reshaping the EU's trade balance and global supply chains.

1. An Era of Explosive Growth in Trade Volumes and Values

The trade for PHEVs experienced extraordinary expansion over the period, with both imports and exports growing at unprecedented rates. This growth reflects the vehicle technology's transition from a niche product to a mainstream market segment, driven by environmental regulations, consumer demand, and manufacturer strategy.

1.1 Imports Grew at an Unprecedented Pace

EU imports of PHEVs surged dramatically, with the value increasing from €658 million in 2017 to over €12.3 billion in 2025, a staggering increase of 1,771%. The volume in units (supplementary quantity) grew even more sharply, from 22,881 to 643,753 vehicles, an increase of 2,714%. This indicates that import growth was driven by both a high number of vehicles and, particularly in recent years, by a rising average price per unit.

Source: General Overview

1.2 EU Exports Also Demonstrated Strong, Sustained Growth

While overshadowed by imports, EU exports also showed robust growth, with the value rising from €2.6 billion to €14.2 billion (+439%). The volume in units grew from 66,015 to 295,373 vehicles (+347%). The average price per exported unit increased by 20% over the period, suggesting the EU maintained a focus on higher-value segments or models.

1.3 The EU Trade Balance Shifted from Surplus to a Narrowing Position

The EU initially held a significant trade surplus in PHEVs (€1.97 billion in 2017). However, due to the faster growth rate of imports, this surplus eroded over time, falling to €1.85 billion in 2025—a 6% decrease in absolute terms. Considering the massive growth in overall trade value, the relative position of the EU's trade balance shifted significantly toward parity, highlighting the growing competitiveness of global suppliers.

2. A Reconfiguration of Global Trade Partnerships and Supply Chains

The map of key trade partners for PHEVs underwent a major transformation, with new production hubs emerging and traditional trade patterns evolving.

2.1 China and Turkey Rose Dramatically as Import Sources

The most striking shift was the emergence of China as the EU's dominant source of PHEV imports. Chinese exports to the EU soared from €21 million in 2017 to €3.59 billion in 2025, a rise of nearly 17,000%. Turkey also became a major player, with imports growing from negligible levels to €1.13 billion, reflecting its role as a production platform for European manufacturers. Japan and the United Kingdom remained significant suppliers, with the latter's role strengthening post-Brexit.

Source: Top Partners by Value

2.2 Export Markets Diversified, with the UK and US as Anchors

The United Kingdom solidified its position as the EU's top export destination for PHEVs, with trade growing from €527 million to €4.16 billion (+690%). The United States and Switzerland also saw substantial increases. Notably, exports to Norway, once a major market (€609 million in 2017), collapsed by 86%, likely reflecting Norway's own rapid shift to fully electric vehicles.

2.3 The Intra-EU Production Landscape Evolved and Specialized

Looking at EU Member State specialization, production became concentrated in key automotive hubs. Slovakia and Sweden emerged as the most specialised producers in 2025 (RSCA of 0.68 and 0.55, respectively), while Germany remained the largest single producer by value, accounting for 38% of EU PHEV production. Conversely, countries like Portugal, Bulgaria, and Greece showed minimal specialisation, indicating production remained geographically clustered.

3. Scaling Production, Shifting Autonomy, and Market Stability

The period was marked by a massive scale-up of EU production, a decrease in import reliance, and notable volatility in specific trade flows.

3.1 EU Domestic Production Scaled Up Enormously

EU production of PHEVs, as measured by PRODCOM data, grew from 24,300 units in 2017 to 600,000 units in 2025—a 2,369% increase. The value of production saw an even larger leap, from €1 billion to €30 billion (+2,900%). This indicates that a significant portion of the vehicles traded were produced within the EU, but the scale of production still did not fully meet the surge in demand, necessitating high imports.

Source: Production Volumes

3.2 The EU's Net Import Reliance Decreased, Signaling a Maturing Market

A key indicator of strategic autonomy, the net import reliance, moved from -45.3% in 2017 (indicating the EU was a net exporter) to -11.2% in 2025. While still a net exporter, the margin narrowed considerably. This reflects the world catching up to the EU's early lead in PHEV technology and the EU's domestic market absorbing more of its own production. The export propensity (exports as a share of production) also fell from 251% to 39%, further confirming the shift from an export-focused to a more balanced market.

3.3 Volatility was Concentrated in New and Smaller Trade Corridors

Trade volatility, as measured by coefficient of variation, was generally moderate for major partners like Japan (CV 0.46), Korea (0.32), and the UK (0.60). However, extremely high volatility was observed in flows to and from newer or smaller markets such as Turkey (CV >2.0), South Africa (1.76), and Mexico (0.95 imports/0.95 exports). This suggests that while core trade relationships stabilized, emerging corridors were subject to larger year-on-year fluctuations, possibly due to ramp-up phases, policy shifts, or small absolute values.

Conclusion

The EU market for plug-in hybrid vehicles (CN 870360) between 2015 and 2025 evolved from a position of strength into a phase of integrated global competition. The period began with the EU as a clear net exporter, capitalizing on early technology development. It ended with the EU retaining a large export base but having become a major importing region, absorbing vehicles from a diverse set of partners, most notably China. This transformation was driven by surging consumer demand that outpaced the even-stronger growth in EU domestic production. The data tells a story of a successful technology adoption curve, but one where global supply chains adapted and competition intensified rapidly, reshaping the EU's strategic position in the automotive sector's electric transition.