Market evolution: Large petrol cars (CN 870324) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in CN 870324 — passenger motor vehicles with spark-ignition engines exceeding 3,000 cm³ — over the 2015–2025 period. The product covers both new (87032410) and used (87032490) vehicles. The EU has historically been a major net exporter in this segment, led overwhelmingly by Germany. However, the period under review is marked by a pronounced structural contraction: export volumes have fallen dramatically while import volumes have surged, narrowing the trade surplus by nearly half. At the same time, unit values tell a diverging story, with export prices rising sharply while import prices decline — suggesting a shift in the composition of traded vehicles. Production data confirms a deep decline in EU output of large petrol cars, consistent with tightening emissions regulation and the broader electrification transition.

A full product definition is available on the overview dashboard.

1. A collapsing export base masked by rising unit values

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the scale of the decline in EU exports. In volume terms, the contraction is severe: export mass fell by 65.0% (from 666,478 t to 233,114 t), and the number of vehicles shipped abroad dropped by 55.2% (from 331,988 to 148,769 units). Yet the decline in export value was notably more moderate at 39.2% (from €21.4 billion to €13.0 billion), because unit values rose substantially over the same period.

1.1 Unit prices diverge between exports and imports

The gap between EU export and import unit prices has widened considerably, pointing to a qualitative shift in what is traded.

EU exports are increasingly concentrated in high-value, premium vehicles, while the import mix has shifted toward lighter and/or cheaper models. This is consistent with European OEMs (particularly German luxury brands) focusing their large-engined production on the top end of the market, while lighter — and often used — large-engined vehicles enter the EU from third countries.

1.2 The trade surplus has narrowed sharply

The EU's trade surplus in this product fell from €19.7 billion in 2015 to €10.7 billion in 2025 (−45.7%). Net import reliance, which stood at −52.5% in 2015 (indicating strong net export status), moved to −189.5% by 2025. While the EU remains a net exporter, the margin is eroding rapidly, driven by a simultaneous decline in export volumes and a surge in import volumes.

Detailed trade flows are available on the general overview dashboard.

2. A market increasingly shaped by the used-vehicle import surge and collapsing production

Behind the headline trade figures lies a striking compositional shift: the growth in EU imports has been driven almost entirely by used vehicles (CN 87032490), while EU production of large petrol cars has fallen dramatically.

2.1 Used-vehicle imports have quadrupled

The table below shows the evolution of imports by product sub-segment (new vs. used):

Used-vehicle imports surged across all measures — volume, value, and unit count. By 2025, used vehicles accounted for 86.5% of total import mass and 90.4% of imported vehicle units. The average price per imported used vehicle fell from €13,841 in 2015 to €6,061 in 2025, suggesting that EU consumers increasingly source second-hand large-engined cars from outside the bloc at lower price points. By contrast, new-car import volumes declined, though their average unit value rose from €50,185 to €101,715 per vehicle, indicating that the surviving new imports are increasingly premium models.

2.2 EU production of large petrol cars has been cut by more than half

EU production of vehicles in this category (as captured by the Prodcom equivalent 29.10.22.30) fell from 6,977,372 units in 2015 to 2,753,606 in 2025, a drop of 60.5%. Production value declined by 26.7% (from €124.2 billion to €91.0 billion). The sharper decline in units than in value mirrors the export pattern and confirms the industry's pivot toward fewer, higher-value vehicles.

This production collapse is likely driven by the combined effects of increasingly stringent EU CO₂ emission standards, the growing shift of consumer demand toward electric vehicles, and manufacturers reallocating capacity away from large-displacement petrol engines. The production volumes dashboard provides further detail.

2.3 Export-side new-vehicle volumes also fell, but less steeply

On the export side, new vehicles (87032410) still dominate, accounting for 92.1% of exported vehicle units in 2025. However, new-vehicle export volumes (by unit count) fell from 315,354 in 2015 to 92,893 in 2025 (−70.5%). Used-vehicle exports, while much smaller, actually surged to 55,876 units in 2025 — potentially reflecting re-exports of vehicles originally imported used.

Full product-level breakdowns are available on the segment comparison dashboard.

3. Geographic concentration, partner volatility, and the China shock

3.1 Germany dominates but its share is declining

Germany remains the EU's primary producer and exporter of large petrol cars, but its dominance has weakened considerably:

Germany's export value fell by 62.1%, while Italy (+13.5%), Austria (+147.4%), the Netherlands (+517.3%), and France (+508.4%) all grew. The export-side Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) fell from 2,646 to 1,927 (−27.2%), confirming that export origins have become more diversified. However, the import-side HHI rose slightly from 3,224 to 3,319 (+3.0%), indicating marginally greater concentration in sourcing.

Specialisation data for 2025 shows Slovakia (RSCA: 0.68, RCA: 5.32) and Austria (RSCA: 0.52, RCA: 3.21) as the most specialised EU exporters in this product, relative to their overall export profiles. See the specialisation dashboard for further detail.

3.2 The US remains the dominant trade partner on both sides

The United States is by far the EU's largest trade partner in this segment:

Export values to the US fell by nearly half, though the US still absorbed 40.7% of all EU exports in 2025. On the import side, the US is also the top source (€960M in 2025), followed by the United Kingdom (€913M). The UK's post-Brexit status has not disrupted this trade flow significantly: UK-origin imports grew by 44.3% over the period.

3.3 China shows the sharpest structural decline — and a notable price shock

EU exports to China fell from €1.35 billion in 2015 to just €303 million in 2025 (−77.6%), making it the partner with the steepest decline. China went from the EU's second-largest export market to a much smaller one. A notable price shock in exports to China was detected in 2018, with an abnormality score of 6.6 and a price shift of +60.3%. This coincides with the escalation of US-China trade tensions, which may have disrupted global supply chains and pricing dynamics for premium vehicles.

China also shows the highest export-side volatility (coefficient of variation: 0.60), alongside Russia (0.76). On the import side, Norway (2.00), South Africa (1.64), and Russia (0.88) show the highest volatility, though their trade volumes are small. Full volatility data is available on the volatility dashboard.

3.4 New import partners are emerging

Several smaller partners have seen rapid import growth into the EU, potentially reflecting new sourcing patterns:

The UAE's rapid growth as an import source may reflect re-exports or arbitrage in the used-luxury-vehicle market. The concentration and partner data are available on the partners dashboard.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in large petrol-engined passenger cars (CN 870324) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The bloc remains a net exporter, but its export advantage has narrowed significantly: export volumes have fallen by more than half, while imports — overwhelmingly used vehicles — have surged nearly threefold in unit terms. EU production of these vehicles has declined by 60.5%, reflecting the structural shift away from large-displacement petrol engines driven by emissions regulation and electrification.

The market is becoming more specialised at the export end: fewer vehicles leave the EU, but at higher average prices, suggesting a concentration on premium and luxury models. Germany's dominance, while still significant, is eroding as Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, and France gain share. On the import side, the rise of used-vehicle imports — at falling unit prices — points to growing demand from EU consumers for affordable large-engined cars sourced from outside the bloc, a trend that may intensify as new production winds down.

Geopolitical and commercial shocks, notably the 2018 price disruption in EU-China exports and the post-Brexit realignment of UK trade flows, have left visible marks on the data. Looking ahead, the continued decline in production and the tightening regulatory environment suggest that the market for CN 870324 will continue to contract, with the EU increasingly becoming a niche exporter of ultra-premium vehicles and a net importer of the broader segment.