Market evolution: Used large petrol cars (CN 87032490) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in used motor vehicles with spark-ignition engines exceeding 3,000 cm³ (CN code 87032490) over the 2015–2025 period. Over this decade, the EU's trade in this product segment underwent significant structural transformation: export value nearly doubled to €1.42 billion, while import value more than doubled to €836 million. Behind these headline figures, however, lie contrasting dynamics in volume, pricing, and geographic orientation that reveal deeper shifts in the market for used large-engined petrol vehicles.

1. Import Volumes Surged While Average Prices Collapsed

EU imports of used large petrol cars grew at an unprecedented pace

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's imports of used large petrol cars by volume (net mass) increased from approximately 48,732 tonnes to 218,012 tonnes — a rise of 347%. In unit terms, imports grew from 28,847 to 137,927 pieces (+378%). This volume surge far outpaced value growth (+109%), implying a sharp decline in the average price per vehicle.

Unit prices fell by more than half, signalling a shift toward cheaper sources

The average import price per vehicle dropped from €13,841 to €6,061 (−56.2%). This dramatic price decline likely reflects a compositional shift: the EU increasingly sourced older, more depreciated used vehicles rather than nearly-new prestige models. It may also reflect growing imports from markets where vehicle values are structurally lower.

The United States became the dominant source, more than doubling its share

The United States emerged as the EU's primary import partner, with trade value rising from €151 million to €415 million (+175%). Canada and the United Arab Emirates also recorded exceptional growth rates (+265% and +303% respectively), though from much smaller bases. Traditional sources such as Japan (+24%) and the United Kingdom (+42%) grew more modestly.

The growing dominance of the US as a source market is notable. American muscle cars and large-engined SUVs, which are often relatively cheap domestically, represent a natural fit for this customs category.

The Netherlands transformed from a minor to a major import gateway

Among EU member states, Germany remained a significant importer but saw its value decline from €190 million to €134 million (−29%). In contrast, the Netherlands recorded a surge from €83 million to €418 million (+404%), becoming the EU's largest importer by value in 2025. Lithuania (+170%), Belgium (+216%), and Spain (+153%) also showed strong import growth, suggesting an expansion of re-distribution hubs across the EU.

2. Export Value Rose on Higher-Value, More Numerous but Lighter Vehicles

The EU exported more vehicles at lower per-unit prices but higher aggregate value

EU exports of used large petrol cars grew in value from €721 million to €1,425 million (+97.7%). The supplementary unit count tripled from 16,634 to 55,876 pieces (+235.9%), yet net mass fell by 24% from 30,425 to 23,194 tonnes. This divergence suggests a significant compositional change: the EU increasingly exported a larger number of lighter used vehicles (perhaps smaller luxury models just above the 3,000 cm³ threshold) rather than a smaller number of heavier prestige cars.

The price per unit fell sharply, but the price per tonne rose substantially

The average export price per vehicle fell from €43,300 to €25,498 (−41.1%), while the price per tonne rose from €23,673 to €61,427 (+159.5%). This pattern is consistent with the EU exporting a higher volume of smaller-displacement vehicles (just above 3.0 litres) that command lower absolute prices but higher prices per unit of mass. It may also reflect the depreciation effect: more exported vehicles are older, lowering the per-vehicle price.

The UAE and the UK became the fastest-growing export destinations

The United Arab Emirates saw EU export values surge from €43 million to €250 million (+474%), making it the second-largest destination by 2025 after Switzerland (€243M). The United Kingdom also grew strongly (+237% to €138M), while the United States doubled to €218M (+115%). Meanwhile, Norway — once a significant destination — saw EU exports drop by 65% to €10M, likely reflecting Norway's aggressive electrification policies.

A key price shock was detected in exports to the UAE in 2021

The volatility analysis identified a notable price shock in EU exports to the UAE around 2021, with an abnormality score of 70.3 and a price shift of +77.2%, accounting for 15.6% of export value. This may reflect heightened demand for European luxury vehicles in the Gulf region during the post-pandemic recovery period, or a shift toward higher-value vehicles in the export mix to this destination.

3. Trade Geography Reorganised Around New Hubs and Diversifying Destinations

The EU's trade surplus in used large petrol cars widened to €589 million

The EU trade balance for CN 87032490 grew from €321 million in 2015 to €589 million in 2025 (+83.3%). However, this trajectory was not linear: the balance dipped to a minimum of −€57 million at one point, indicating the EU briefly became a net importer in value terms. The maximum surplus reached €818 million, reflecting considerable year-to-year volatility.

Germany remained the top EU exporter but lost relative ground

Germany retained its position as the EU's largest exporter of used large petrol cars, with exports rising from €492 million to €592 million (+20%). However, this modest growth contrasted sharply with the explosive rise of the Netherlands (+485% to €432M), Belgium (+305% to €74M), and Czechia (+275% to €41M). By 2025, the Netherlands was closing in on Germany's leading position.

Import concentration increased while export concentration decreased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,233 to 2,897 (+29.7%), indicating that the EU's import sources became more concentrated. This is consistent with the growing dominance of the United States. Conversely, the export HHI fell from 1,256 to 1,004 (−20.0%), reflecting greater diversification of export destinations as new markets in the Gulf, Africa, and Eastern Europe gained importance alongside traditional partners.

Member state specialisation reveals a two-speed EU market

In 2025, Luxembourg exhibited the highest relative specialisation (RSCA of 0.78), followed by Denmark (0.48) and Germany (0.40). At the other end, Portugal (−0.99), Poland (−0.89), and Spain (−0.76) showed strong negative specialisation, indicating they are net importers with negligible exports in this segment. This divide likely reflects the role of major automotive manufacturing nations as hubs for re-exporting used prestige vehicles, while southern and eastern EU members primarily serve as demand markets.

Trade in this segment shows elevated volatility with partner-specific shocks

The coefficient of variation analysis highlights that certain trade relationships are notably unstable. For exports, the UK (CV of 1.88) and Ukraine (0.82) showed high volatility; for imports, Norway (2.08), the UK (0.78), and Russia (0.90) were the most erratic. This volatility likely reflects a combination of policy changes (e.g., Norway's EV incentives), geopolitical disruptions (the Ukraine conflict), and the inherent irregularity of trade in used vehicles, where supply depends on fleet turnover cycles rather than steady production.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in used large petrol cars with engines over 3,000 cm³ underwent a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. On the import side, volumes surged nearly fivefold while unit prices halved, driven by massive growth in sourcing from the United States and the rise of the Netherlands as a key gateway. On the export side, the EU nearly doubled its trade value despite exporting lighter vehicles at lower per-unit prices, with the UAE and UK becoming critical growth destinations. The overall trade surplus widened to €589 million, but the market became more geographically concentrated on the import side and more diversified on the export side. These trends are consistent with the broader electrification of the European vehicle fleet: as new large petrol cars are phased out, their used counterparts are being redistributed globally — imported in greater numbers at lower prices, and exported primarily to markets where demand for such vehicles remains strong. The decline in Norwegian exports (−65%) and the growing role of Gulf states as destinations underscore how policy environments in partner countries shape these trade flows.